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Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

nytimes.com

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Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#21

Post by arethuza »

owenmarshall wrote: post #12
dmoo wrote: post #4

The question that always occurs to me is, if most people are to be jobless, then who can afford all the products and services provided by the robots?

I'm not sure a capitalist system makes sense in a techno-utopia. If the robots make themselves, mine the minerals, smelt the ores, assemble the smartphones, and deliver them to me, there is not a labor cost associated with assembling the smartphone, so why should there be a price? Maybe the "cost" comes from the loss of the mineral in the ground, but if we're going full on techno-utopia the robots would reclaim the m…

I'm pretty sure Zakalwe asks Sma in Use of Weapons what the humans in the Culture are for - given that the machines are so much better than humans at pretty much everything - the answer is essentially "for having fun".

Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#22

Post by gutnor »

IMO it depends a lot on the timescale. Give it 100-200 years and all the positive scenario are the likely outcome.

In 200 years, people will only have hobby because that will be all they have to do and most of their needs have been automated.

The problem is the transition to there and that's the annoying thing in all those discussions, nobody ever talk about it.

For example, Industrial Revolution and the 2 World Wars were the fantastic drivers that pushed EU and US in an unprecedented golden age. I'm sure the majority of people would have been happy to get the golden a few years later rather than going through the mass loss of lives or the misery of those years.

> This is not a technological consequence; rather, it’s a political choice.

Not quite sure how it is reassuring. Except China, there seem to be no move to even acknowledge that we may have something to do other than "the invisible hand of the market will solve everything"

Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#23

Post by damon_c »

pacala wrote: post #6
dmoo wrote: post #4

The question that always occurs to me is, if most people are to be jobless, then who can afford all the products and services provided by the robots?

The question is: who needs the jobless people? http://www.humanesociety.org/assets/pdfs/hsp/soaiv_07_ch10.p... Table 1 U.S. Equine Population During Mechanization of Agriculture and Transportation Year Number of Horses and Mules 1900 21,531,635 1905 22,077,000 1910 24,042,882 1915 26,493,000 1920 25,199,552 1925 22,081,520 1930 18,885,856 1935 16,676,000 1940 13,931,531 1945 11,629,000 1950 7,604,000 1955 4,309,000 1…

Wait... so are you proposing a metaphor where we are the horses and mules?

Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#24

Post by owenmarshall »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #13
owenmarshall wrote: post #5

Once again sethf hits the nail on the head. The response is entirely up to us. I'm not personally optimistic: this country has a deeply held Puritanical work ethic, and even if we get past that we have a real nasty habit of not liking to give any government benefits to " those people ". But if we can get past that...

> Once again sethf hits the nail on the head. The response is entirely up to us. I disagree. Short of halting the progress of robotics and software, there seems to be no way to avoid the continued automation of things, and economy, politicians and social habits will have to follow and adapt, like they always did. More and more I'm buying into the view that it's the technological progress that drives cultural change,…

>I disagree.

I'm not sure with what, we're both saying the same thing. ;-)

I haven't read too much of it yet but your link looks very interesting, thanks!

Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#25

Post by cousin_it »

Nah, it's not as bad as the article says. It's much worse.

1) If you don't lose your job to a robot, you'll lose it to an emulated human. An em requires only a tiny chip and a little electricity, and is every bit as capable of doing empathy and creativity as you are.

2) If you don't lose your job to an em, you'll lose it (and your life) to unfriendly self-improving AI that has a use for your atoms. If you think there's a law of nature against such awful things happening, think again.

3) Even if you learn about that bleak future with 99% certainty, you'll keep living life as usual and hoping for the 1%, instead of trying to change things.

4) And even if everyone on Earth sees that the bleak future is coming, we won't coordinate with each other to stop it! Look at poor people today, they are already suffering but don't coordinate to improve their lot.

Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#26

Post by malchow »

owenmarshall wrote: post #5

Once again sethf hits the nail on the head. The response is entirely up to us. I'm not personally optimistic: this country has a deeply held Puritanical work ethic, and even if we get past that we have a real nasty habit of not liking to give any government benefits to " those people ". But if we can get past that...

Question: What do you think "government benefits" are? As in, in what do they consist? What is their form? Of what stuff are they? Are they corporeal or spiritual? If corporeal, whence did they come? Who created them? Are they extracted from a mine? Built by a machine? Contributed by working men?

Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#27

Post by TeMPOraL »

steven777400 wrote: post #7

Whenever I see the "positive" prognostications, I wonder if the author is intentionally spinning a tale for their own ultimate benefit, or if I'm just way too cynical. I don't see any way that the advance of automation can do anything but destroy any desirable concept of society. To me, the future inexorably looks like Detroit or Nairobi, not like Tokyo or Singapore. Education is a red herring. Most people (and I'd i…

> Most people (and I'd include myself in this) are simply not mentally capable enough to be trained to outperform automation in any task automation can perform.

Well, they shouldn't. I see automation as a way to end slavery, on which our society is based. People in the first world don't see this because their chains and whips are made of gold, but if you think about it, it's slavery nonetheless. We are all slaves to the system that requires us to work long hours on increasingly pointless things in order not to starve. I strongly hope we'll liberate ourselves from this situation with automation and technological progress (though I don't feel confident we will).

Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#28

Post by tdfx »

gutnor wrote: post #22

IMO it depends a lot on the timescale. Give it 100-200 years and all the positive scenario are the likely outcome. In 200 years, people will only have hobby because that will be all they have to do and most of their needs have been automated. The problem is the transition to there and that's the annoying thing in all those discussions, nobody ever talk about it. For example, Industrial Revolution and the 2 World Wars…

> In 200 years, people will only have hobby because that will be all they have to do and most of their needs have been automated.

This has not been the trend. Interconnectivity and ease of travel were supposed to relax the amount of work we do, but instead people put in more hours than ever. The efficiency gains have created winners and losers, but both are working at least as hard as before.

Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#29

Post by BugBrother »

hyp0 wrote: post #19

people often hand-wave that "new technology creates new jobs". but it seems to me there's a simple economic proof that it's true, based on demand and supply. Is there one? my favourite commentary on the singularity (comic) http://partiallyclips.com/2003/09/25/dome-house/

Well, there are practical experience of new jobs created despite automation since at least the luddites.

Re: Will You Lose Your Job to a Robot? Silicon Valley Is Split

#30

Post by TeMPOraL »

gutnor wrote: post #22

IMO it depends a lot on the timescale. Give it 100-200 years and all the positive scenario are the likely outcome. In 200 years, people will only have hobby because that will be all they have to do and most of their needs have been automated. The problem is the transition to there and that's the annoying thing in all those discussions, nobody ever talk about it. For example, Industrial Revolution and the 2 World Wars…

>> This is not a technological consequence; rather, it’s a political choice.

> Not quite sure how it is reassuring.

I don't find it reassuring and I also think it's wrong. Politicians won't even see it coming. Political decisions tend to be consequences of technology, not the other way around.

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