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Uber vs. Car Ownership

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#21

Post by yoodenvranx »

I used to live in a smallish german town which had an excellent car sharing service. They had about 15 cars of all sizes all around town which you could rent vja phone or web for as long as you needed then. I paid 11 euro per month and in addition 3 to 10 euros an hour (depending on the car) and some cents per km.

Tbis service was perfect! Need to go shopping for the weekend? Take the vw golf. Cat needs to go to cat doctor? Take the smart. Want to help a friend with moving? Take the mercedes sprinter. Want to go to the beach with some friends? Take the vw passat.

All in all i paid 20 to 50 euro for _all_ my car needs and i never had to think about refilling gas, switching to winter tires, do checkups and so on.

Unfortunately i had to move to a different town where such a service does not exist and i really really feel limited. I need a car only once or twice a month so buying one is out of question. And renting from a normal car renting company is too expensive.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#22

Post by sama »

xophe wrote: post #17

lol @ 5k a year depreciation, 3.5k maintenance, and 3.6k parking, i.e. the majority of this analysis. In conclusion, paying someone to take you in their Toyota Prius is less expensive than paying for your own Tesla. Still, I see sama's point. I own/maintain my own motorcycle and I uber/lyft when I can't do that. Best of both worlds.

it's definitely an extreme data point, though car ownership in SF is expensive no matter how you cut it (most of that maintenance goes into fixing stuff that happens to it when parked on the street, and parking garages are always expensive).

i could definitely get a car that depreciates less. it's old battery tech at this point.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#23

Post by bicknergseng »

To be fair, the Tesla Roadster is a pretty odd example. I'm not sure $5,000/year depreciation with $3,500/year for maintenance seems reasonable for almost anything. Am I wrong in thinking that most cars depreciating at that rate will have very low or 0 maintenance costs not covered under warranty?

For example, a 2014 Honda Civic with 1 mile on it (example) is ~$17k, while a 2013 with 6k miles is ~$15k (KBB values). There should be very few things not covered by warranty since they're VW, BMW, and some others have also started including free maintenance for things like oil changes and wipers and brakes as part of the new car warranty.

On the flip side, I'm impressed your insurance is so cheap.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#24

Post by AVTizzle »

crabasa wrote: post #13

I'm a huge fan of Sam's blog posts and he is President of YCombinator for a reason, but I'm struggling to understand what Sam think that his personal data point (as a wealthy owner of a Tesla Roadster no less) says about the viability of Uber replacing a family vehicle for normal people. Does he not realize that plenty of people love to drive?

Sam's post has little to do with the emotion of "loving to drive."

It's a calculation about the cost of car ownership vs. taking alternative means of transportation.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#25

Post by mastermojo »

I actually have some personal numbers after owning a second hand 2000 Mustang for 1 year from 112k to 121k miles exactly since yesterday. I got the car for 6000.

  Uber 9000 miles x $2 = 18000
  Personal Car: 7000
  Maintenance 2500 
     - new bumper (old one taken off while street parked) 1000
     - replaced foggy headlamps 400. purely cosmetic reasons
     - side window smashed 800. never park in oakland =(
     - oil changes etc? (200 at most) 
  Insurance 600 (checkout AAA) 
  Depreciation 2000(?)
  Gas 1800 ($4/gallon @ 20 miles/gallon)
No contest for me, really. Even if I payed 300 bucks a month for a commuter parking spot in SF, and got an occasional parking ticket here and there.

For people who can get to and from work easily using public transportation, perhaps owning a car does not make sense as much as Zipcar/Uber. Owning a car can cost a lot of money, but for people who want one as a form of transportation it can be very affordable (i.e dont buy new). Also, the average car is expected to travel 10-12k miles a year.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#26

Post by 7Figures2Commas »

gautambay wrote: post #15
GBKS wrote: post #6

Still not sure how this would work for anybody with a family and kids and/or living outside of urban areas (the majority of people). Has this been touched on in previous discussions? Would love to hear some thoughts.

Two thoughts: 1. People will move back to cities as cities become more attractive (thanks in part to things like the shared economy). There's already some evidence of this trend among millennials. Reverse white-flight if you will. 2. Uber will eventually work just as well in suburban areas. The fundamental economics don't change (higher resource utilization => lower costs). It will take longer to get to penetration l…

> Uber will eventually work just as well in suburban areas.

No, it won't.

> The fundamental economics don't change...

They don't change for Uber, but they do for drivers.

> It will take longer to get to penetration levels that result in sufficiently high utilization.

You seem to be under the belief that supply drives demand here. That's not the case.

The economics of utilizing a taxi service can be markedly different for suburban consumers than urban consumers. Point B is frequently more distant from Point A in suburbia, so the average cost of a taxi ride tends to be higher. Thus the relative attractiveness of paying for a taxi ride decreases.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#27

Post by jamesaguilar »

bicknergseng wrote: post #23

To be fair, the Tesla Roadster is a pretty odd example. I'm not sure $5,000/year depreciation with $3,500/year for maintenance seems reasonable for almost anything. Am I wrong in thinking that most cars depreciating at that rate will have very low or 0 maintenance costs not covered under warranty? For example, a 2014 Honda Civic with 1 mile on it (example) is ~$17k, while a 2013 with 6k miles is ~$15k (KBB values). T…

"Pretty odd" is generous of you. Nonsense is what it is. It's like saying that drinking craft beer for all your hydration needs is cheaper than drinking water, but citing one of these[1] as your baseline for comparison.

[1] http://www.therichest.com/expensive-lifestyle/entertainment/...

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#28

Post by jonknee »

recalibrator wrote: post #19

Sam. You own a Tesla Roadster, a car for people who don't have to niggle over money. Most people a) don't live in SF b) have your money c) have access to Uber and d) have a Tesla Roadster. You're essentially talking to yourself and a few choice friends who live in the same bubble as you.

Which makes HN the perfect place to talk about it.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#29

Post by crabasa »

AVTizzle wrote: post #24
crabasa wrote: post #13

I'm a huge fan of Sam's blog posts and he is President of YCombinator for a reason, but I'm struggling to understand what Sam think that his personal data point (as a wealthy owner of a Tesla Roadster no less) says about the viability of Uber replacing a family vehicle for normal people. Does he not realize that plenty of people love to drive?

Sam's post has little to do with the emotion of "loving to drive." It's a calculation about the cost of car ownership vs. taking alternative means of transportation.

> This of course leaves out the huge intangible of how much nicer it is not to drive...

I'm simply saying that it's often quite nice to drive, as Sam knows quite well as the owner of a Tesla Roadster.

Re: Uber vs. Car Ownership

#30

Post by gamblor956 »

matthewaustin wrote: post #2

Imagine what will happen when we combine decentralized car use with autonomous driving. Uber is already cheaper than driving yourself around, but think how affordable it would be if no Uber driver was needed at all.

Uber is only cheaper than driving yourself around if you points of comparison involve low-mileage use cases, a high-density area, an expensive car, and expensive gas. In other words, a wealthy individual who lives in San Francisco, New York, Chicago, or LA.

For everyone else, Uber is far more expensive than owning their own car.

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