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The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

fivethirtyeight.com

21–30 of 91 posts

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#21
post #2

I'm starting to wonder if the Federal Reserve is no longer an effective tool for job creation. After years of propping up the economy and expanding the supply of money, we have very little to show for it on "main street." We have booming real-estate prices in some cities, a growing stock market, and lots of cheap money flowing into the hands of the wealthy -- but most regular folks have been completely shut out of th…

Just sending checks to all citizens is politically difficult, because it starts conversations about “class warfare” and “socialism”, and implies that the federal government should have a policy of explicit wealth redistribution, rather than the current hodge-podge of means tested welfare programs and monetary policy tools. But to answer your question: yes, we’d increase liquidity, reduce unemployment and dramatically…

> Just sending checks to all citizens is politically difficult, because it starts conversations about “class warfare” and “socialism”, and implies that the federal government should have a policy of explicit wealth redistribution, rather than the current hodge-podge of means tested welfare programs and monetary policy tools.

I seem to recall a round of stimulus checks that were sent out in 2008, before things went to hell.

Even better than a one-time stimulus, I think the permanent removal of payroll taxes would be best, possibly even replacing them with permanent (albeit small) subsidies. The idea of taxing the socially beneficial act of working and hiring workers is pretty repugnant anyway.

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#22
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just sending checks to all citizens is politically difficult, because it starts conversations about “class warfare” and “socialism”, and implies that the federal government should have a policy of explicit wealth redistribution, rather than the current hodge-podge of means tested welfare programs and monetary policy tools. But to answer your question: yes, we’d increase liquidity, reduce unemployment and dramatically…

Let's put aside the Federal Government (and taxes and spending) for a moment and focus on the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve printed a large amount of money in response to the crisis. (That was a silent tax on anyone holding cash.) To inject this money into the economy, they bought a bunch of securities. My question is simply: why use asset buying as a vehicle for injecting money into the economy and not cash t…

Because all the Fed can do is issue/buy back treasuries (and MBS since Bernanke), as well as act as a lender of last resort. Banks are the ones who hold the vast majority of treasuries so they're the ones who are getting the cash for them. How else do you expect it to work?

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#23
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feds are obsessed with keeping inflation at a certain level, not at zero. I think the target is 3%, while current inflation is around ~2%.

Why would the Feds want inflation and not a flat line?

to give investors a more significant incentive to invest rather than save

money in savings accounts may as well be dead money as far as the economy is concerned

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#24
post #14
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feds are obsessed with keeping inflation at a certain level, not at zero. I think the target is 3%, while current inflation is around ~2%.

Government stated inflation based on chained CPI and other new measures to reduce inflation may be at around 2%, but previous formulas used in the past to calculate inflation would show a much higher rate (6-10%)[1]. For those actually buying or consuming anything, that official number is a farce. [1] http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Shadow stats isn't credible in any way. They can't even be bothered to take the raw data and apply the 'old' weights to them, so they just arbitrarily add a few percentage points to the CPI. The BLS has dedicated far too much effort into showing why they are an asinine source for 'data':

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf

Consider this:

If "real" inflation was 7%/year, in 10 years, the price of everything would be 100% higher than it was previously. How many things in your life are twice as expensive as they were in 2004? Now how many things aren't twice as expensive?

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the Feds want inflation and not a flat line?

to give investors a more significant incentive to invest rather than save money in savings accounts may as well be dead money as far as the economy is concerned

That makes sense. I guess deflation is a huge no-go since that means a savings account is a risk-free profiting investment where stocks etc are not risk-free.

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#26
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's put aside the Federal Government (and taxes and spending) for a moment and focus on the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve printed a large amount of money in response to the crisis. (That was a silent tax on anyone holding cash.) To inject this money into the economy, they bought a bunch of securities. My question is simply: why use asset buying as a vehicle for injecting money into the economy and not cash t…

> The Federal Reserve printed a large amount of money in response to the crisis. (That was a silent tax on anyone holding cash.) To inject this money into the economy, they bought a bunch of securities. My question is simply: why use asset buying as a vehicle for injecting money into the economy and not cash to citizens? Because that's all that the Federal Reserve can do. If you want someone to do something else, you…

Because that's all that the Federal Reserve can do.

Yes. Pretty much.

Problem is "unemployment" is such a fake number the entire mandate of the fed has been based on flawed stats. The fed is happy to lower the "unemployment" rate by forcing people onto "disability" (permanent welfare) and un-paid leave of the workforce.

That's not reducing unemployment in any meaningful sense. Its just statistical arbitrage/3-card-monty.

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#27
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feds are obsessed with keeping inflation at a certain level, not at zero. I think the target is 3%, while current inflation is around ~2%.

Why would the Feds want inflation and not a flat line?

Because 2/3 of our GDP is made up of consumer spending. By making your cash worth less tomorrow than it's worth today it incentivizes us to spend. If we don't spend our money the economy grinds to a halt in a hurry.

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#28
post #2

I'm starting to wonder if the Federal Reserve is no longer an effective tool for job creation. After years of propping up the economy and expanding the supply of money, we have very little to show for it on "main street." We have booming real-estate prices in some cities, a growing stock market, and lots of cheap money flowing into the hands of the wealthy -- but most regular folks have been completely shut out of th…

The Fed doesn't control money quantity, it controls price.

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#29
post #2

I'm starting to wonder if the Federal Reserve is no longer an effective tool for job creation. After years of propping up the economy and expanding the supply of money, we have very little to show for it on "main street." We have booming real-estate prices in some cities, a growing stock market, and lots of cheap money flowing into the hands of the wealthy -- but most regular folks have been completely shut out of th…

Well they might be effective if not for an over sized Federal Government which is consuming so much of the economy through taxation and borrowing. The US has one of the least business friendly tax systems in the world, so blind Washington is to their own actions they want to fine companies for leaving instead of getting the hint.

The Fed is too prop up people who support Washington, K-Street, and Wall Street, not Main Street.

Re: The Economy Got Off to a Historically Bad Start in 2014

#30
The chart in the articles below paints the picture. I've never really been overly involved in economics up until last year. When I started reading and exploring I was shocked at what I found. I kept struggling, because I knew something wasn't right, I just couldn't put my finger on it. I still can't.

All indicators that I can find show the economy slipping into another recession (or simply continuing the previously interrupted "Great Recession")

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-25/unforgettable-winte...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-25/gdp-disaster-final-...

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