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Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

deathandtaxesmag.com

21–30 of 106 posts

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#21
I was just commenting to my girlfriend the other day after the John Oliver "Statistically Accurate Climate Science Debate" that I would love to see the US government spend $100mm or $1b or $10b (say over 5 years) on grants to try and disprove climate change.

Now obviously there might be some issues ensuring that you get researchers who want to make a real go of trying to disprove it rather than erect straw men and tear them down. But that's probably solvable.

Yes in many respects it would be a big waste of money, but after you poke a million little holes in climate change they will be fixed. And that will strengthen our understanding of the climate and in all likelihood substantially bolster the claim that climate change is real and man-made. And if it takes $100mm or $1b or even $10b worth of very public extra research to really convince people it would be worth it.

The US Global Change Research Program's budget is $2.6b annually so $20mm per year is a joke, $200mm a year is a bit substantial and $2b per year might actually be a reasonable amount.

http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2012/02/14/presidents-201...

Again I realize that for many people it would be a "waste" of money. But if it was publicized properly (and I do realize that's a big IF) it could go a long way towards garnering the public support necessary to do some economically difficult things. When politicians are happy to kick the can down the road every couple of years it's pretty tough for the public to understand why this is an issue that can't be kicked as well.

EDIT: I also realize it's stupid to waste taxpayer money, something I'm vhemently against. But while I'm dreaming here, let's suppose that the money is taken from the military budget for the duration of the grant period.

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#22
post #14

97% consensus? Right away I'm calling bullshit. I think this only proves how immature the academic world tends to be and may point to a bigger problem.

There are plenty of areas to pick apart this article and motivations behind it. 97% consensus isn't one of them.

Denial, is old and dead amongst the well informed. Join us.

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#23
post #2

The article has a weird tone. Why is he being so agressive against people who think the opposite of him? I mean if you are tolerant against people whose religion place the women in a submission role and restrain to nothing individual rights, you can be also tolerant to people who think the earth is not warming up.

"Being tolerant" of a person's views doesn't entail "being respectful of" them, nor does it imply one must simply abide their expression in silence.

Here's a counter-question: why is it that when people who have extraordinary or extraordinarily extreme opinions are questioned or challenged there seems to almost always be an attempt to deflect the discussion toward one revolving around respect and tolerance instead of the merits of the issue involved? (That's kind of a rhetorical question, really--my long and varied experience on topics of this sort has led me to one conclusion if nothing else, and that is this: people who hold such views and attempt such deflection aren't interested in honest dialog.)

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#24

It seems longbets.org would be a more appropriate arena. "The average temperature of the earth will (not) rise by more than X degrees in the next twenty years."

That would be an excellent bet for the person betting that the temperature will increase. However, it doesn't prove that human actions are causing it. I think most deniers do believe that the climate is changing - even that the temps are going up. The problem is that causation is hard to measure. I'm not a scientist, but I think theories explain causes, and you can't directly measure a theory, only the observations that support it.

So, maybe a bet that includes more measurements (green house gas emissions, etc.) would be needed to prove man-made global warming. The outcome of the total of those bets would either support or not support the theory. But that might be a lot of bets and a mixed result could complicate things.

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#25
post #3

Can you really prove something by the scientific method? Maybe it would be better to say "show a likelihood of at least x%"?

Yes. You can prove that water boils when you add enough heat. You are making a philosophical argument, not a scientific one.

If you do it scientifically, meaning by experimentation, you've really only shown that in all observed cases water boils when you add enough heat. It's an inductive process, which unlike deduction is never logically valid - excluding mathematical induction which is really more like deduction, since you can actually test all possible cases that way. It is a philosophical issue, but epistemology is the basis of the validity of science.

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#26

This is why I'm a skeptic, change my mind: Let's say we have 150 years of accurate temperature data, and it shows an increase of a few degrees. What is the standard deviation in global temperature for 150 year periods for the last 100K or 1M years? How do we know what is significant change? Any data gathered from models (ice core, tree rings, ...) just doesn't have the resolution to answer these questions.

Lets say we have my blood alcohol level measured in the last 5 mins. It's 0.2g/dL. Whats my blood alcohol level throughout my lifetime though - i reckon it goes up and down quite a bit? How do i know I'm drunk or that it was caused by this keg I just drank?

Any data gathered from physiological models I will just arbitrarily ignore... just because...[waves hands]

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#27
post #10
post #2

The article has a weird tone. Why is he being so agressive against people who think the opposite of him? I mean if you are tolerant against people whose religion place the women in a submission role and restrain to nothing individual rights, you can be also tolerant to people who think the earth is not warming up.

Somehow that doesn't seem to be possible. The entire question is a fraud of course : the argument for climate change is based on statistical likelihood of existing trends continuing based on past measurement. While that does satisfy some standards used in science, no scientist in his right mind would refer to that as "proven", because it isn't. So here's my version : 1) There is no argument from either maths, or even…

While the idea of "proof" here is just a distraction, we have vastly more than merely "statistical correlations". We know that we've significantly increased the CO2 concentration in our atmosphere, and we have a pretty good idea of what that does to a climate:

"Of all the planets in our solar system, Venus is the hottest one, even hotter than Mercury, the planet closest to the sun. Venus, whose daytime temperature can reach 900 degrees Fahrenheit (464 degrees Celsius), is surrounded by a thick gaseous layer that consists mostly of carbon dioxide. When the sun's rays reach Venus, the carbon dioxide traps the heat within, causing a kind of planetary greenhouse effect."

From http://curiosity.discovery.com/question/venus-hottest-planet

EDIT: Also, you seem to be confused about what the law of the excluded middle says.

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#28
post #3

Can you really prove something by the scientific method? Maybe it would be better to say "show a likelihood of at least x%"?

Yes. You can prove that water boils when you add enough heat. You are making a philosophical argument, not a scientific one.

No, incorrect. In science nothing is ever REALLY proven.

But there are standards by which scientists agree that a certain amount of evidence will be accepted as "proof". At least for a while. Where everyone understand that it could always be overturned by some evidence to the contrary.

In particle physics it takes five sigma to make a claim. In other fields, often less. http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/the-particle-proof-1150/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_evidence#Concept_of_...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability

For example everyone knew that water boiled once it got hot enough. Then someone invented a pressure vessel and wasn't able to boil water over a fire because as the pressure rose, so did the boiling point. And thus a thing that everyone knew was true for thousands of years wasn't quite anymore.

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#29
If I put 20 mice in a container, together with a toy car, measure the temperature in the container for 2 months and write a report about my findings, would that count as scientific proof? Because by definition, scientific proof does not result in 'true' or 'false', right?

According to Socrates it's impossible to disprove anything. That's purely a philosophical theory, but in this case it applies pretty well. You can't prove manmade global warming is NOT occuring because, in theory, the global warming that we're seeing (note that the definition of 'global warming' isn't set in stone, too) could be caused by other factors.

So, proving something isn't possible is impossible, and to top that this person runs a blog on global warming skepticism. I have the feeling he/she could be somewhat biased...

Just to be clear: I'm not debating man-made global warming. It's just that these kind of challenges bug me.

Side note: what is 'scientifically proven' anyway? I wrote a thesis on propaganda, and discovered (among other things) that when you say something is 'scientifically proven' most people stop questioning your claim.

Re: Physicist offers $10,000 for anyone to scientifically disprove climate change

#30

This is why I'm a skeptic, change my mind: Let's say we have 150 years of accurate temperature data, and it shows an increase of a few degrees. What is the standard deviation in global temperature for 150 year periods for the last 100K or 1M years? How do we know what is significant change? Any data gathered from models (ice core, tree rings, ...) just doesn't have the resolution to answer these questions.

What difference does it make if the cause is entirely man made or not. Should we let 80% of worlds population who live on the coast just deal with rising sea levels, because it natural? Do you really need to know it's causing a rise in temperature to want less trucks and cars polluting the air in your city? Or does the fact that we will never have the historic data to know for sure if humans are causing global warming, make it okay to ignore the issue entirely, forever?
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