‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy • Hacker News Board

Re: ‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

#21

Post by jimbokun » Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 2:22 PM UTC

ubernostrum wrote: post #3

I guess I don't really get it. Earth, the planet, is finite in mass and not all of that mass exists in the form of crude oil or equivalent raw sources of petroleum. Therefore there will be a point at which no further oil can be obtained. One is of course free to debate when that point will come, or when the inevitable decline toward that point begins, but the simple fact remains that a finite resource is, well, finit…

"In the end, perhaps the most misleading claim of the peak-oil advocates is that the earth was endowed with only 2 trillion barrels of “recoverable” oil. Actually, the consensus among geologists is that there are some 10 trillion barrels out there. A century ago, only 10 percent of it was considered recoverable, but improvements in technology should allow us to recover some 35 percent — another 2.5 trillion barrels — in an economically viable way. And this doesn’t even include such potential sources as tar sands, which in time we may be able to efficiently tap."

So, yes, the author concedes that the supply of oil is finite. But he is arguing that "Peak Oil" is much less imminent than many claim. Specifically, that there is an extra 1.5 trillion barrels of recoverable oil that "peak-oil advocates" do not account for. I would like to see a peak-oil advocate's take on these numbers.

Re: ‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

#22

Post by jimbokun » Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 2:25 PM UTC

hristov wrote: post #5

Right .... I would sooner believe any crazy wacko peak oil theorist than an energy consultant saying that oil will settle at $30 per gallon soon. Currently oil is $70 per gallon AND we are in a global recession AND the middle east is as peaceful as it will ever be in the foreseeable future. The truth of the matter is peak oil will be very hard to predict because oil companies' reserve estimates are not very reliable,…

You meant to say barrel, not gallon, I think.

Re: ‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

#23

Post by steveplace » Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 2:56 PM UTC

His argument is full of selection bias. So, I will select my own evidence to show that he's a crock of shit.

1. Mexico production has been on a steep decline, and production from the Cantarell facility is steeply falling off.

2. We had an economic collapse and oil held at 33/bbl.

3. The infrastructure that needs to be built in Saudi to extract new oil is getting very complicated and expensive, because you can no longer throw a straw in the ground to pull oil out there.

4. There's a huge difference between the marginal value of a gallon of oil for an American vs. an Indian. A liter of oil is life changing for a Bangladeshi, but won't get me further than the next piggly wiggly in town.

Anyways, that's a couple. As a disclaimer, this isn't my specialty so consider me to be a crock of shit as well. Here's some better sources with real data:

gregor.us

getrealist.com

theoildrum.com

They have actual numbers.

Re: ‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

#24

Post by biohacker42 » Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 3:09 PM UTC

mechanical_fish wrote: post #19

patio11 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it seems only prudent to have contingencies and alternatives in place well in advance. Meh, the market works. As the supply of oil at a given degree of extraction difficulty decreases, the price of oil increases, which brings additional oil at the next higher level of difficulty into the profitable-to-extract region. Repeat ad nauseum. Eventually, there will be disruptive innovation and we won't need oil anymore. Dis…

the market works. Sure. But that's like saying "gravity works". As I jump off of a ledge, I do so with perfect faith in gravity: There is almost certainly a time T after which I will be on the ground! [1] But whether I will be happy at time t > T depends crucially on the actual shape of the terrain in front of me. A 1% slope would be good. A ski slope, perhaps tolerable. El Capitan, not so much. It will always be pos…

The important question is: What does the demand curve for oil look like?

I think the sane peak oil advocates are asking exactly that. It's not that we are running out of oil, it's that we are running out of cheap oil. And that's going to mess up the world economy. Things don't look good when oil goes above $80 a gallon.

But I've heard that we can synthesis gasoline from air and water using electricity from nuclear power. Anyone know what that costs per gallon?

Re: ‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

#25

Post by fburnaby » Tue, Aug 25, 2009, 4:40 PM UTC

The naming of a group as "peak-oil advocates" immediately flags this article in my mind as some form of propaganda. No one is "for" peak oil being reached.

His attempt at argumentation about the amount of oil that's available is far beyond my ability to discredit and as a result, I'm completely agnostic on the issue. But I know to ignore any conclusion presented by this author when he applies such obvious slander and misrepresentation of his opponents. An obvious straw-man argument.