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Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

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Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#21

What a silly joke[1]. Though they are planning to launch additional services [2] @aaronapple below (above?) is right... regulatory changes are on the way. Right now they're violating the law, don't collect or pay local taxes unlike real hotels, don't bother with ensuring that local rules and regulations are followed. This will (and should) change soon. Hiding behind the people who rent out their spaces who are "suppo…

> [1]"Airbnb doesn’t even own a bed, but its backers think it’s more valuable than Hyatt"

Sure, certainly an important thing to consider if you take the pessimistic view. On the very optimistic side, consider the possibility that AirBnB makes hotels almost entirely obsolete (it is definitely putting pressure on them). Hotels are expensive and cookie-cutter. While in some ways predictable is their advantage, expensive is not, and cookie-cutter is boring. AirBnB offers location (location location), comfort (home away from home), privacy (if you want it), and novelty (every trip is different). Major pluses in my book.

> Once they are forced to play on a level playing field,

What happens if they aren't, ever? What happens if cities all over the place actually accommodate them? Unlikely, sure--but it's easy to be a naysayer on the internet. It's more likely what will happen to them is what is happening to Uber et al. Some places accommodate sycophantically (SF), some places go the opposite direction (Seattle). And anywhere that accomodates, AirBnB stands to take a huge chunk out of the existing hotel biz.

There are smart people working on these valuations, on both sides. AirBnB has real, valuable network effects that need to be considered. I don't imagine to be able to gauge this one accurately purely based on "c'mon, thats so much money!!". I'm honestly more a pessimist on AirBnB. But I've been a resolute pessimist before and gotten burned badly (e.g. stock market 2013, anyone?)

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's outrageous - no way is AirBnB "worth" more than Hyatt hotels!!! "At $10bn, Airbnb would be one of the world’s most valuable startups and worth more than than Hyatt Hotels ($8.3bn) or Wyndham Worldwide ($9.4bn)." http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/20/airbnb-fun...

Why is that crazy? How many guests does Hyatt serve per year? How many does AirBnB serve today? How many could AirBnB serve with continued growth for the next five years? And of course the elephant in the room, how many will AirBnB serve if regulations are enforced? Also an open question of will AirBnB be commoditized and have its value spread across dozens, if not hundreds or thousands, of competitors across the glo…

Hyatt owns property, e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyatt#Notable_properties

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's outrageous - no way is AirBnB "worth" more than Hyatt hotels!!! "At $10bn, Airbnb would be one of the world’s most valuable startups and worth more than than Hyatt Hotels ($8.3bn) or Wyndham Worldwide ($9.4bn)." http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/20/airbnb-fun...

Why is that crazy? How many guests does Hyatt serve per year? How many does AirBnB serve today? How many could AirBnB serve with continued growth for the next five years? And of course the elephant in the room, how many will AirBnB serve if regulations are enforced? Also an open question of will AirBnB be commoditized and have its value spread across dozens, if not hundreds or thousands, of competitors across the glo…

Worth noting (for better or worse, depending on your viewpoint) is that Hyatt's valuation includes a ton of real estate in prime locations around the world:

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?F...

Those are no doubt a factor in Hyatt's valuation.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#24
It doesn't surprise me at all that AirBnB is doing another round. I'm sure they want to stay as opaque as possible while the regulatory landscape settles into place. Going public would force a lot more transparency and potentially weaken their negotiating position.

As for people doubting their valuation and comparing it to hotels; keep in mind that hotels have no way to scale the way AirBnB does, nor can hotels cater to niche geographic areas the way AirBnB does. It is not a stretch to see AirBnB becoming the defacto start when searching for a place to stay and if that happens, hotels may find themselves subordinate to AirBnB.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#25

What a silly joke[1]. Though they are planning to launch additional services [2] @aaronapple below (above?) is right... regulatory changes are on the way. Right now they're violating the law, don't collect or pay local taxes unlike real hotels, don't bother with ensuring that local rules and regulations are followed. This will (and should) change soon. Hiding behind the people who rent out their spaces who are "suppo…

> [1]"Airbnb doesn’t even own a bed, but its backers think it’s more valuable than Hyatt" Sure, certainly an important thing to consider if you take the pessimistic view. On the very optimistic side, consider the possibility that AirBnB makes hotels almost entirely obsolete (it is definitely putting pressure on them). Hotels are expensive and cookie-cutter. While in some ways predictable is their advantage, expensive…

> "Hotels are expensive and cookie-cutter."

Some are, eg big franchises like La Quinta, but many are not.

The pressure they put on them is because they skirt the laws and play by different rules, yet those who use AirBnB look just at the rates. What's more, the low rates are the direct result of them skirting the rules and expose those who rent their rooms to fines, taxes or worse.

There's also a complete lack of enforcement/adherence to regulations that ensure safety, cleanliness, etc.

They don't even protect the rights of the home owner (eg there are special rules in NYC for stays exceeding 21 days, exceed that, and the "short-term" vacationer becomes a tenant with associated rights, ie try to get them out even if they do not pay "the rent").

By the way, the hotel industry is lobbying big-time to address these and other issues. I doubt they'll roll over anytime soon.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#26

What a silly joke[1]. Though they are planning to launch additional services [2] @aaronapple below (above?) is right... regulatory changes are on the way. Right now they're violating the law, don't collect or pay local taxes unlike real hotels, don't bother with ensuring that local rules and regulations are followed. This will (and should) change soon. Hiding behind the people who rent out their spaces who are "suppo…

Well, $400M can purchase a lot of lobbying. All this makes me wonder–in 3 years, who's gonna be spending more on lobbyists: AirBnB or Uber?

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#27

Does anyone have a good estimate on what % of AirBnB rentals are illegal (i.e. not allowed by local zoning laws) and what % are just dodging local hotel taxes?

OK, not a well researched estimate, but I would say close to 100%. No jurisdiction that I have lived in allowed short term rentals without jumping through a lot of hoops: zoning laws, accommodation taxes, hotel regulations, and so on.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#28

One day, something incredibly bad will happen. When that day comes, AirBnB is going to need a monumental war-chest.

They also need money for bigger plans/additional services.

See http://www.fastcompany.com/3027107/punk-meet-rock-airbnb-bri...

By the way, bad stuff happens all the time. I assume a lot if this doesn't make it into the press as they pay people off.

Just last week: http://mashable.com/2014/03/17/airbnb-freak-fest/

http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-airbnb-x...

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#29

What a silly joke[1]. Though they are planning to launch additional services [2] @aaronapple below (above?) is right... regulatory changes are on the way. Right now they're violating the law, don't collect or pay local taxes unlike real hotels, don't bother with ensuring that local rules and regulations are followed. This will (and should) change soon. Hiding behind the people who rent out their spaces who are "suppo…

> [1]"Airbnb doesn’t even own a bed, but its backers think it’s more valuable than Hyatt" Sure, certainly an important thing to consider if you take the pessimistic view. On the very optimistic side, consider the possibility that AirBnB makes hotels almost entirely obsolete (it is definitely putting pressure on them). Hotels are expensive and cookie-cutter. While in some ways predictable is their advantage, expensive…

> On the very optimistic side, consider the possibility that AirBnB makes hotels almost entirely obsolete (it is definitely putting pressure on them). Hotels are expensive and cookie-cutter. While in some ways predictable is their advantage, expensive is not, and cookie-cutter is boring. AirBnB offers location (location location), comfort (home away from home), privacy (if you want it), and novelty (every trip is different). Major pluses in my book.

I don't think you've done the market segmentation here... you're assuming that the majority of the market is similar to you.

Business travelers want reliability and predictability, and the companies that they work for want to negotiate rates in exchange for being preferred vendors.

Travel agencies need the reliability and predictability.

Anyone organizing for a larger group (weddings, sports teams, church trips, conferences, etc.) can't deal with a smattering of different housing providers.

A lot of people just don't want the obligations that come with the AirBnB experience... if you've got a family with three young kids that tear the crap out of things and make messes, a hotel room is a better bet.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#30

Does anyone have a good estimate on what % of AirBnB rentals are illegal (i.e. not allowed by local zoning laws) and what % are just dodging local hotel taxes?

Outside of a small number of seasonal tourist towns, where short-term rentals are allowed or even encouraged, the types of rentals on AirBnB are overwhelming illegal.

Not 100%. I would guess about 75-85% are illegal based on the small % of listings I've seen for owner-occupied AirBnB listings (which are usually okay).

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