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Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

benjamingilbert.net

21–30 of 73 posts

Re: Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

#21

I think this is a lousy defense of Bitcoin. I cringe whenever I read "oh it's new technology of course people will be scared!" or worse yet, "you must be jealous because you didn't get in on the ground floor." I think it's a really cool technology but the economics don't make a lot of sense. There are a few major issues I see: -What problem does it solve? Many claim that it's a more efficient way to transfer money, b…

>more efficient way to transfer money

In addition to your stated issues (which actually are probably fixable), there's the computational power requirement. That cannot be fixed. Bitcoin requires thousands of times (or more) more computational power to do a single transaction than any centralized currency system I can think of.

I remember before bitcoin people would say "Oh, I have a couple spare computers... I just threw folding@home on them for now". Now, people are going out of their way to throw cycles at this currency instead of problems that help scientific progress, and thus humanity.

Bitcoin is a cool idea and well implemented for what it is, but I think attention should be drawn to its exceedingly inefficient use of computational resources.

Re: Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

#22
Benjamin, you're conflating bitcoin the protocol with bitcoin the 'currency'.

This is an all too common mistake, so please don't feel too too bad about it. Bitcoin protocol does have some interesting things to offer us and I'm sure it will be built upon in novel ways.

Bitcoin 'currency' on the other hand is a non-starter and as time goes on we will see it discarded.

I hope more people would concentrate on the protocol but about 99% of what you hear and the energy of people is set on bitcoin 'currency'.

Re: Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

#23

I think this is a lousy defense of Bitcoin. I cringe whenever I read "oh it's new technology of course people will be scared!" or worse yet, "you must be jealous because you didn't get in on the ground floor." I think it's a really cool technology but the economics don't make a lot of sense. There are a few major issues I see: -What problem does it solve? Many claim that it's a more efficient way to transfer money, b…

Thanks for writing this. I agree with everything you said.

I'd also add the concern of Bitcoin lacking an inflationary mechanism. I can't see it ever becoming a currency without that. If it's lucky, it may be a transactionary vehicle before the next technology displaces it. But, like you pointed out, it doesn't have much of a utility for that purpose anyway - taking transaction fees, security and usability into account.

Emin Gün Sirer wrote [0] an excellent survey of the Mt. Gox scandal, and a measured evaluation of the problems with Bitcoin. I loved this part:

> What Nigerian scams are to your grandfather, Bitcoin exchanges are to the 20-30 semi-tech-savvy libertarian demographic.

He ends by recommending Dogecoin because the community doesn't take itself too seriously.

> If one must pick a cryptocurrency, the lowly dogecoin, of all things, is doing everything right. It's based on economic principles that provide the right incentives for a healthy economy. The community does not take itself seriously. Most importantly, no one pretends that Doge is an investment vehicle, a slayer of Wall Street, or the next Segway. No one would be stupid enough to store their life savings in Dogecoins. And people freely share the shiba goodness by tipping others with Doge. So, young people who are excited about cryptocurrencies and want to get involved: Dogecoin is where the action is at. Much community. So wow.

I just hope the hoardes of Bitcoin speculators don't ruin it for them.

> What can I do with bitcoin that I can't with paypal or even a bank account (many let you instantly transfer money these days for no/low fees to pay friends, landlords, etc.)?

For all its faults, the cryptocurrency renaissance (based off the Bitcoin protocol) is enabling the Silk Roads to flourish. You can't run those on Paypal. You can't donate to Wikileaks with Paypal either, for that matter.

[0]: http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/03/01/what-did-not-happen...

Re: Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

#24

I think this is a lousy defense of Bitcoin. I cringe whenever I read "oh it's new technology of course people will be scared!" or worse yet, "you must be jealous because you didn't get in on the ground floor." I think it's a really cool technology but the economics don't make a lot of sense. There are a few major issues I see: -What problem does it solve? Many claim that it's a more efficient way to transfer money, b…

>What can I do with bitcoin that I can't with paypal or even a bank account (many let you instantly transfer money these days for no/low fees to pay friends, landlords, etc.)? With bitcoin, you don't have to have a third party such as Paypal or your bank to transfer money over the internet. You don't have to trust a third party. It's very close to a face-to-face cash transfer, albeit with possibility of being traced…

but if you want to transfer coins you have to have them first. how easy is it for the average person to get bitcoins? not very.

with coinbase you have to link a bank account. so they essentially have a blank check from you. if you trust them, great. if not...

you can wire money (bank) to bitstamp but they also want scans of verifying documents like a passport or drivers license. is the average person off the street going to jump through these hoops?

buying through localbitcoins is even more confusing.

Re: Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

#25
post #16

I think this is a lousy defense of Bitcoin. I cringe whenever I read "oh it's new technology of course people will be scared!" or worse yet, "you must be jealous because you didn't get in on the ground floor." I think it's a really cool technology but the economics don't make a lot of sense. There are a few major issues I see: -What problem does it solve? Many claim that it's a more efficient way to transfer money, b…

Two benefits that makes it all worthwhile: 1) you can transfer it to someone else (e.g. an heir) cost free, tax free, paperwork free, without the gov't even knowing you did it. Illegal, but you can do it and probably get away with it. 2) It can't be devalued by gov't action.

You can transfer cash to someone else cost free, tax free, and paperwork free if you don't mind breaking the law. If you transfer money by other means (e.g. the bank, bonds, etc) there are perks that make up for the additional cost generally. If nothing else, simplicity.

You really think it can't be devalued by the government?

Its value changed when China implemented laws regulating it (and even when there was speculation of it).

If the NSA threw its resources at mining, it could become rich and then dump for cheap, thus crashing it.

The FBI already showed that they can seize some, and they managed to seize such a significant portion that it could be devalued that way.

What you should be saying is "It's not backed by a central authority we have to trust". A third party as powerful as the government can still do significant damage to it.

Re: Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

#26
post #22

Benjamin, you're conflating bitcoin the protocol with bitcoin the 'currency'. This is an all too common mistake, so please don't feel too too bad about it. Bitcoin protocol does have some interesting things to offer us and I'm sure it will be built upon in novel ways. Bitcoin 'currency' on the other hand is a non-starter and as time goes on we will see it discarded. I hope more people would concentrate on the protoco…

why is it a nonstarter as a currency? is it because it can't scale if widely adopted? or because it's difficult to keep secure? any other reasons?

Re: Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

#27
post #16

I think this is a lousy defense of Bitcoin. I cringe whenever I read "oh it's new technology of course people will be scared!" or worse yet, "you must be jealous because you didn't get in on the ground floor." I think it's a really cool technology but the economics don't make a lot of sense. There are a few major issues I see: -What problem does it solve? Many claim that it's a more efficient way to transfer money, b…

Two benefits that makes it all worthwhile: 1) you can transfer it to someone else (e.g. an heir) cost free, tax free, paperwork free, without the gov't even knowing you did it. Illegal, but you can do it and probably get away with it. 2) It can't be devalued by gov't action.

Both of those points can be seen as good arguments against bitcoin by many. Myself for instance, I don't consider facilitating tax evasion and impossibility to regulate by democratically elected governments a point in favour of bitcoin.

That being said to get back on the technical merits of bitcoin, I agree with the OP that I can't imagine every individual handling their own bitcoin wallet and risk losing everything if it gets compromised (and waiting for transactions to be validated etc...).

So even if the currency is successful we'll end up with bitcoin banks managing the risk for us and visa-like credit cards for day to day transactions. And then I fail to see any advantage over what we have now (besides making a few early adopters extremely rich, of course).

Re: Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

#29
post #21

I think this is a lousy defense of Bitcoin. I cringe whenever I read "oh it's new technology of course people will be scared!" or worse yet, "you must be jealous because you didn't get in on the ground floor." I think it's a really cool technology but the economics don't make a lot of sense. There are a few major issues I see: -What problem does it solve? Many claim that it's a more efficient way to transfer money, b…

>more efficient way to transfer money In addition to your stated issues (which actually are probably fixable), there's the computational power requirement. That cannot be fixed. Bitcoin requires thousands of times (or more) more computational power to do a single transaction than any centralized currency system I can think of. I remember before bitcoin people would say "Oh, I have a couple spare computers... I just t…

"Bitcoin requires thousands of times (or more) more computational power to do a single transaction than any centralized currency system I can think of."

Is that really the case? I'm quite sympathetic to the view that it might be, either presently or in the long run (an arms race where attackers and defenders are on the same footing can't get cheaper due to improved technology), but there are expenses in the current system that bitcoin avoids (and a lot that it doesn't, for sure). I've seen various analyses making various claims, and I'm really not sure what the answer is.

Re: Bitcoin and Thoughts from Bill Gates

#30
post #16

I think this is a lousy defense of Bitcoin. I cringe whenever I read "oh it's new technology of course people will be scared!" or worse yet, "you must be jealous because you didn't get in on the ground floor." I think it's a really cool technology but the economics don't make a lot of sense. There are a few major issues I see: -What problem does it solve? Many claim that it's a more efficient way to transfer money, b…

Two benefits that makes it all worthwhile: 1) you can transfer it to someone else (e.g. an heir) cost free, tax free, paperwork free, without the gov't even knowing you did it. Illegal, but you can do it and probably get away with it. 2) It can't be devalued by gov't action.

1. You could do the same thing with cash or gold in many domestic cases. Transferring a substantial amount of cash in/out of a BTC exchange is going to require AML paperwork and the blockchain/exchange has enough information for a regulator to back out where the money went. You might be able to trade locally for cash to avoid this, but for serious amounts of money that could get you robbed or arrested.

2. BTC can be devalued by the actions (or inaction) of other participants in the market and their value changes wildly compared to major currencies. Yes there will never be hyperinflation in BTC terms, but your BTC could easily end up worthless in other ways. Furthermore, I don't think this is a real risk for actual wealthy people. Their wealth is primarily concentrated in ownership interest in businesses, equipment, land, etc., not in currency.

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