As a Go programmer, I feel a bit sad/ashamed to be saying this, but look at Plan 9 - it failed to usurp Unix (and its descendants) as the dominant OS, because the latter was "good enough", and was already more widely supported and used.
Plan 9 vs. Unix is a very different comparison than Vim vs. Neovim, and there are a lot of other factors at play, but the same principle actually holds. Improving or extending an existing system in a compatible way is a lot easier than trying to establish mindshare with a completely new tool.
The tradeoff is that extending existing systems leads to cruft and bloat. So if you can establish mindshare with a new tool, you have an opportunity to make a much more elegant one. But that's a big "if".
EDIT: I think a better analogy may be an attempt to refactor the Linux kernel into a microkernel. I'd certainly love it if this magically happened - microkernels are much easier to work with, and much more elegant. But it'd be hard to make the case that that'd be a worthwhile endeavor at this point, given the costs of doing so.