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Is this an opportunity for app devs where the app store isn't as crowded so a quality app can really shine?
Look. I don't hate Windows Phone, my girlfriend has the HTC 8X and adores it. With the latest set of big apps ported (like Instagram and Snapchat), it's quite nice. The interface is good, and fast on modest hardware. The browser is pretty meh. PIM functionality is good, as you'd expect from Windows Mobiles pedigree. But comparing an entire ecosystem of phones (with one of the biggest sellers being the $100 Nokia 520)…
Because as developers, you don't develop for a specific piece of mobile hardware, you develop for an OS. If Windows Phone is gaining ground in markets you care about, you'd best care about it, regardless of the specific hardware being talked about. We're comparing ecosystems here, not hardware. We can compare "Windows Phone Phones vs iOS phones" if that makes you feel more comfortable.
Now there are some arguments to be made as to why consumers would care as well, but in my experience those arguments might hold true for people like us on HN but not for your average commenter on The Verge (for example).
I was in Vietnam last year and it was like being in this bizarro world where Microsoft dominated mobile.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because as developers, you don't develop for a specific piece of mobile hardware, you develop for an OS. If Windows Phone is gaining ground in markets you care about, you'd best care about it, regardless of the specific hardware being talked about. We're comparing ecosystems here, not hardware. We can compare "Windows Phone Phones vs iOS phones" if that makes you feel more comfortable.
Hey, yeah I agree with you that as developers it matters. Sorry, my post was influenced by another discussion recently about this topic; I was looking at it from a consumer perspective. Now there are some arguments to be made as to why consumers would care as well, but in my experience those arguments might hold true for people like us on HN but not for your average commenter on The Verge (for example).
Consider, for example, if Chile becomes dominated by the Windows Phone. All your good useful local apps - your local versions of Yelps, Zagats, OpenTables, etc - are going to go Windows Phone first. The services that matter most in the community you're in are going to go where the marketshare is - and as an iPhone user, you might be left waiting to catch up.
Look. I don't hate Windows Phone, my girlfriend has the HTC 8X and adores it. With the latest set of big apps ported (like Instagram and Snapchat), it's quite nice. The interface is good, and fast on modest hardware. The browser is pretty meh. PIM functionality is good, as you'd expect from Windows Mobiles pedigree. But comparing an entire ecosystem of phones (with one of the biggest sellers being the $100 Nokia 520)…
1) Everyone prefers to be on the winning or "proven-right" side. It's hard to be happy with your otherwise decent Blackberry if your peers increasingly don't use it, know anything about it, or disparage it.
2) There is also a long-term self-interested component that seeks more than simply trying to fit in. It goes like this - the more cool your chosen device/platform/game is the more users it attracts, the more users it attracts the more money is flowing through the system, and ultimately more money means more human resources are spent on patching/re-releasing your favorite product so that it can be improved and stay reliable in the long-term. And if it's a proprietary messaging system or a multiplayer game, having more users in the system is in itself also a boon to the end-user experience.
I had spoken to Horace Dediu of Asymco in December for a story on what options Microsoft and Nokia had before them, and here are some of the relevant parts he told me (the article itself doesn't seem to have been put online at Forbes India, who I used to write for but no longer do):
>> Coming to the present, the biggest problem that Microsoft and Nokia will face is that of timing. Specifically, at what stage are we when it comes to global penetration of smartphones?
>> Today now that the market is over 1 billion users and going to very rapidly saturate, the challenge for Microsoft is their assumption of wanting to keep on trying hoping to succeed one day. It's hard to believe that after so many tries and so much saturation, they can succeed. Worse, their strategies are symmetric, meaning they compete against an Apple or an Android by claiming their Lumia devices are better.
>> If Microsoft and Nokia can pivot and become a low-end competitor then there may be an opportunity still available in emerging markets. But instead they’re pouring tremendous resources into the US and Europe saying Lumia is better. That will fail. The door for Windows Phone is closing not because of Apple and iOS but because of Google and Android. Nokia, the bulk of whose phome portfolio was in the mid-market, was defeated by Android. I could argue, with difficulty, that they can still get into the late stage market but I haven’t seen a message from them indicating that. They simply aren't humble enough to see that market as their core, but still see their platform as superior to all others.
The author tries to anticipate this with:
"As such, it is possible for cynics to argue Windows Phone is gaining in markets where the iPhone doesn’t compete and making little headway where it does. Except this isn’t true either.
Windows Phone Is Fast Becoming A Hit In Europe"
But this is also bollocks. There are people everywhere that buy $200 phones, it might be only 20% in the US and 30% in Europe (where many countries don't use subsidies) instead of the 80%+ you might see in Mexico or Thailand but that doesn't mean these people are choosing WP's over iPhones.
I was in Vietnam last year and it was like being in this bizarro world where Microsoft dominated mobile.
I live in Vietnam. Windows phone is certainly popular here, but I believe (relying on my own biased observations) that iPhone is vastly more popular. While iPhones are sold by official vendors, it's far more popular to buy "hand carry" phones that are imported by individuals. Of the ~10 people I know with iPhones, all are hand carried. They are cheaper than the official vendors (and not recognized in the IDC report).
How long are Microsoft, and those who write about it, going to continue with the delusion that Windows Phone's competition is Apple and iOS, instead of Google and Android? I had spoken to Horace Dediu of Asymco in December for a story on what options Microsoft and Nokia had before them, and here are some of the relevant parts he told me (the article itself doesn't seem to have been put online at Forbes India, who I u…
Are there not dimensions beyond price and volume still left to tap into the smartphone market?
I was in Vietnam last year and it was like being in this bizarro world where Microsoft dominated mobile.
I live in Vietnam. Windows phone is certainly popular here, but I believe (relying on my own biased observations) that iPhone is vastly more popular. While iPhones are sold by official vendors, it's far more popular to buy "hand carry" phones that are imported by individuals. Of the ~10 people I know with iPhones, all are hand carried. They are cheaper than the official vendors (and not recognized in the IDC report).