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Thoughts on Bitcoin

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#21

Post by wmf »

leokun wrote: post #5

I'm going to buy a bitcoin after the bubble has passed. What do we think the real price is. Like $10 or $100? What's the projected bottom? I'm hoping for less than $10, because cheaper is better. The thought that I would never be able to afford an entire bitcoin has a negative psychological effect, which may be silly. What I like about alt-coins is how one can use that for games. Imagine making a game where a custom…

Here's an attempt to answer that question: http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-...

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#22

Post by andrewhillman »

"The fact that the few merchants willing to accept bitcoin generally convert to dollars right away suggest an underlying lack of faith in bitcoin—or at least a problem with the volatility."

Its not a lack of faith l, it's lack off trade acceptance. If merchants accept bitcoin they need to convert back to dollars because that's what their business calls for. In other words, if they could pay their bills with bitcoin, then bitcoins would flow back and forth without an issue, removing your suggestion that this is about lack of faith.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#23

Post by doki_pen »

I don't know why it is required that it is used in legitimate purchases. No one questions the value of gold, yet not many people use it to make purchases. I suspect bitcoins value will follow the same pattern as gold, once it is stable. When the world is full of uncertainty, it's value will rise. When things are steady, it's value will fall.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#25

Post by michael_nielsen »

dustyleary wrote: post #20
michael_nielsen wrote: post #18

The following graph shows the estimated volume of transactions: https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume?... You see immediately from the graph that the growth in number of transactions is relatively slow, considering all the media attention, and certainly far, far slower than the increase in the exchange rate. Note that this graph is not the same as the number of "legitimate transactions" mentione…

The graph is log10-scale, so it's difficult to see a 50% or 100% increase in volume. It's definitely not a 5x or 10x increase though.

You can remove the log scale:

https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume?...

I used the log scale to make the point that transaction volume is relatively slow-moving on a log scale. That is certainly not the case for the exchange rate!:

https://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?showDataPoints=f...

Incidentally, the volume graph has a notable spike in December 2011. I've Googled and asked around a bit, but don't have a good understanding of what caused the spike.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#26

Post by pinarsezer »

andrewhillman wrote: post #22

"The fact that the few merchants willing to accept bitcoin generally convert to dollars right away suggest an underlying lack of faith in bitcoin—or at least a problem with the volatility." Its not a lack of faith l, it's lack off trade acceptance. If merchants accept bitcoin they need to convert back to dollars because that's what their business calls for. In other words, if they could pay their bills with bitcoin,…

> The fact that the few merchants willing to accept bitcoin generally convert to dollars right away suggest an underlying lack of faith in bitcoin—or at least a problem with the volatility.

Few merchants accept gold either. Yet gold reserves in the world amount to US $8.2 trillion in value.

Edit: removed part on volatility

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#28

Post by richiverse »

My biggest issue with bitcoin is that it should be redeemable for something tangible other than $USD. The first virtual currency that addresses this and is directly convertible to watts or calories will be the currency to beat.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#29

Post by johnrob »

Why should anyone feel compelled to follow or invest in bitcoin? The time to buy bitcoins is when you need them to get something you want (as it should be for any currency).

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#30

Post by aristidb »

After all the insane articles that claim things like "Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme" or "Bitcoin is anonymous", it is quite nice to read a well-informed and sane article.
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