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What if successful startups are just lucky?

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Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?

#21

Post by varjag »

tomasien wrote: post #10

It keeps me up at night that you could work your entire life in startups, do everything right and even work on good ideas, and you could still never really succeed. Then I realize that success (in terms of an exit or something similar) can't be the goal: I work on startups because I like building things (edit: things that have the potential to have a tremendous impact) and I want to change the world.

> Then I realize that success (in terms of an exit or something similar) can't be the goal: I work on startups because I like building things and I want to change the world.

While the above might be a commendable personal goal, startups are indeed created for their possible exit value. The vision, the tech and the kind of things you end up working on are commanded or at least heavily influenced by these circumstances. In that sense there isn't too much difference from working for an innovative established company (except you don't get a shot at the money pot).

Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?

#22

Post by james4k »

"Success in [indie] game development is lucky like poker, not lucky like the lottery."

I forget where I read this; it may have been on Twitter, but it could apply to startups and probably many other facets of life.

Edit: Found the source. https://twitter.com/MattRix/status/401072871323086848

Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?

#25

Post by IgorPartola »

IMHO, luck is only a factor in success. Failure is much more frequently pre-determined. For example, a startup with a great idea and a great execution still might fail, while a startup with a terrible idea or poor execution will almost definitely fail. I think of startups as needing to be not good but good enough: if the idea and execution are good enough, other factors start mattering. However, if they are not good enough, then no amount of luck will change that in the long run.

For example, the Color app had all the resources (funding, contacts), but the basic value proposition was just not there. They never had a chance. OTOH, Turntable.fm had a great product, but as luck would have it, they did not make it. Either the timing wasn't right or something else, but despite everything they are having to pivot.

Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?

#26

Post by jackgavigan »

To echo the monkeys writing Shakespeare analogy, if a hundred startups are throwing darts at a dartboard, there's a decent chance that at least one of them will hit the bullseye.

Where network effects are involved, they may not even need to hit the bullseye - just getting closer to the bullseye than anyone else may be enough.

Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?

#27

Post by evanspa »

tomasien wrote: post #8
jxf wrote: post #4

"I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson (apocryphal; see [0]) [0]: http://www.monticello.org/site/research-and-collections/i-am...

Bizarre - the last link I was on was a random ESPN quiz with UVa star Joe Harris in which that quote was one of the questions. (I realize this is a pretty meaningless and useless comment, but seeing this quote 2 times in less than 10 seconds was too much not to mention).

I'm unable to find a definitive reference, but Gary Player (golfing legend) is also attributed with the quote: "The harder I practice, the luckier I get." Perhaps that's why it was on ESPN.

Pretty sure George Simmons has this quote of Player's on one of the chapter pages in his "Precalculus Mathematics in a Nutshell" book.

Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?

#28

Post by tomasien »

mseebach wrote: post #19
tomasien wrote: post #10

It keeps me up at night that you could work your entire life in startups, do everything right and even work on good ideas, and you could still never really succeed. Then I realize that success (in terms of an exit or something similar) can't be the goal: I work on startups because I like building things (edit: things that have the potential to have a tremendous impact) and I want to change the world.

What about "changing the world" (for the better, presumably) doesn't require financial independence AND a good chunk of luck on top of that?

Changing the world doesn't mean changing EVERYTHING about the world, or the entire world, just a part of it. I want to make huge changes, but you also have to find a level of satisfaction in making smaller changes

Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?

#29

Post by tomasien »

varjag wrote: post #21
tomasien wrote: post #10

It keeps me up at night that you could work your entire life in startups, do everything right and even work on good ideas, and you could still never really succeed. Then I realize that success (in terms of an exit or something similar) can't be the goal: I work on startups because I like building things (edit: things that have the potential to have a tremendous impact) and I want to change the world.

> Then I realize that success (in terms of an exit or something similar) can't be the goal: I work on startups because I like building things and I want to change the world. While the above might be a commendable personal goal, startups are indeed created for their possible exit value. The vision, the tech and the kind of things you end up working on are commanded or at least heavily influenced by these circumstances…

The startups I work on have that as a top level goal, absolutely and 100% - as a person, you have to focus on and reward the process as much as the potential result, or it won't work. Paul Singh is fond of saying "we always celebrate the result, but we need to celebrate the process". Putting more people in the right process will produce more positive results, even if not all those people can achieve the massive results we're learning for.

Re: What if successful startups are just lucky?

#30

Post by lacero »

High growth start-ups are nothing but luck. How does a company built in a garage with practically no marketing budget get such high growth numbers in the initial stages (facebook, twitter, snapchat, instagram,etc)? They manage to go viral. Pure herd mentality.
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