Earlier quoted context omitted.
seem to not want to debate the topic much Let's say you are a pilot in an airplane at 30,000 feet and the fuel gage reads 20 minutes from empty. For how long are you willing to debate with your copilot that we need to declare an emergency and land right now? What if the gage is just broken and you think you have 20 minutes of fuel left? At some point people that feel there is a problem will want to act. And the globa…
right, but immediate death isn't on the line. a decrease in our standard of living over the next 50 years is on the line. since spending billions of dollars decreases our standard of living as well there is a valid debate: which course decreases our standard of living less?
Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
21–30 of 52 posts
Re: Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
Funny, but the data I had told a rather different story. Gonna look for the URLs to back it up and I will be right back. "None of it sways you" -> please spare me of your attacks. They don't add anything to the discussion and they only weaken your point.
If my point is correct, and the evidence, facts and data all align with it, then anything else I say is irrelevant. That's the problem, though -- people make these decisions based on emotions, vested interests, or what they wish were so, rather than the real evidence. If global warming/climate change is harmful to capitalist greed (and I don't think all capitalism is greed, or vice versa), then it prima facie must be…
People build computer models to simulate the weather. The physics is not the problem. The initial conditions and the assumptions are the problem. The atmosphere is vast. We can measure temperature and other stuff mostly at the Earth's surface. Some people are now building UAVs to fly around and collect measurements which will be used to increase the accuracy of the climate models. One problem: the climate is a chaotic system, i.e., it's highly sensitive to disturbances on initial conditions. Another problem: the models neglect the biosphere. Most carbon is in the biosphere, not in the atmosphere. Computer model says temperatures are going to increase 9 degrees Celsius. People panic. Wait. Does anyone know how to model the dynamics of the biosphere?! Short answer: no. It's a complicated problem. You can forecast CO2 emissions from industry, but no one has a clue how the biosphere will react to abrupt temperature variations.
One caveat: there are cycles. The Sun has cycles. The Earth also has cycles. The temperature in the middle ages was known to be a few degrees higher. Was it also due to CO2 emissions from the industry? Definitely not.
There was a time when there was no ice on the Arctic. There was also a time when most coastal areas we have today were underwater. There's no reason why that can't happen again, for sure.
An important issue: what does "global warming" even mean? Are the minimum / median / average / maximum temperatures increasing? Or is the variance increasing? Does this happen everywhere. What I read was that the cold, high-latitude regions were getting "warmer" (whatever that means), while the tropical regions were pretty much the same. This is too much complexity to be sold to the masses. The masses want entertainment, not information.
OK, suppose that temperature will increase by 9 degrees or so. Sea levels will rise and threaten us all. The U.S. can try to regulate emissions to counter this, but will the Chinese do the same? This is Game Theory 101. Moreover, what will people in the U.S. and Europe say:
"Sorry you Chinese, Indians and Brazilians. We destroyed the planet, and now we won't allow you to develop because of that. If you want to keep your houses warm in the winter and power your industry, we will accuse you of treason."
Last but not least: is regulation the best solution? What is the problem with global warming exactly? Rising sea levels? Increased CO2 concentration is good for the plants because they grow faster. I say, build a pipeline from the Arctic to the Sahara to pump fresh water into local agriculture. If the Israelis can grow tomatoes in the Negev desert, I don't see why the North Africans can't do the same.
The problem with regulation is that it won't work on a global scale. A politician would rather compromise the planet than tell his own people that they have to starve and freeze to reduce emissions. This is much more than capitalist greed. This is about human rights: people should have the right to consume energy to increase their standard of living.
Science is one thing. Policy is another. Let us keep them separate. Studying the climate should be decoupled from politics as much as possible.
Re: Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Funny, but the data I had told a rather different story. Gonna look for the URLs to back it up and I will be right back. "None of it sways you" -> please spare me of your attacks. They don't add anything to the discussion and they only weaken your point.
Why are your attacks on Krugman more constructive than the GP's attacks on you? Because Krugman isn't posting here?
If you're going to address the public, you should be honest. Krugman is an economist. He constantly sells half-baked, hand-waving arguments as absolute truths. And this is not because he's a "liberal". The same happens with all the "conservative" economists who also write dishonest articles.
Economics is hard. Very hard. An "expert" who tells the public he does not know will be frowned upon. But that's the point: experts don't know everything, and should not claim to know more than they do.
Greenspan himself wrote that when he ran the Fed sometimes they were completely "lost" and made decisions based more on gut-feeling than solid economic theory. Greenspan is pretty much retired now, so he can afford to be frank. Krugman still has a career, so he can't afford that.
Re: Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
right, but immediate death isn't on the line. a decrease in our standard of living over the next 50 years is on the line. since spending billions of dollars decreases our standard of living as well there is a valid debate: which course decreases our standard of living less?
Your immediate death isn't on the line. WHO says that people are already dying as a result of climate change: http://www.who.int/globalchange/news/fsclimandhealth/en/inde...
When bad things happen, people want to know more... And this in turn means more $$$ (or €€€) for the media companies.
Re: Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
"I'd be interested to know if someone who believes that global warming is something that requires our immediate attention can explain why arguing against it so dangerous." Because the global warming hysteria is an ideology, not Science. You can't argue against über-dogmatic fanatics who know nothing about Science. If they knew about Science, they would know that "global warming" is a meaningless, stupid name. Underst…
The facts about climate change are so obscured from the public view that it often seems to be an ideology, as you put it. About the naming though, I wouldn't say that 'climate change' is a retarded way of putting it, because it describes what is happening quite accurately, but I do like your way of putting it. 'Global climate crisis' seems to capture the problem much better.
If the weather is a dynamical system, it is (by definition) always changing. Moreover, "change" only means things are not static. It does not quantify how much things have become different. Better call it a crisis because the measures being proposed to fight the problem suggest that, indeed, this is a crisis.
Re: Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
seem to not want to debate the topic much Let's say you are a pilot in an airplane at 30,000 feet and the fuel gage reads 20 minutes from empty. For how long are you willing to debate with your copilot that we need to declare an emergency and land right now? What if the gage is just broken and you think you have 20 minutes of fuel left? At some point people that feel there is a problem will want to act. And the globa…
right, but immediate death isn't on the line. a decrease in our standard of living over the next 50 years is on the line. since spending billions of dollars decreases our standard of living as well there is a valid debate: which course decreases our standard of living less?
The trick is to react soon enough that the change is minor without over reacting and that's hard. I would propose a ~1% carbon fuel tax which funds wind farms which are then sold on the open market. You end up with a huge change at a small cost.
Option 2, create an semi independent government agency like the post office which takes 1 billion and builds wind / solar / hydro power plants. Use the "profit" of electricity sold to build more power plants and let exponential growth take off. This depends on the expected rate of return and could be accelerated with some debt financing.
In 20 years we may find it was pointless but we will have built infrastructure which is useful. Compared to a 2,980 billion dollar annual federal budget you can get a lot done with a change that's hard for most people to notice.
Re: Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
The facts about climate change are so obscured from the public view that it often seems to be an ideology, as you put it. About the naming though, I wouldn't say that 'climate change' is a retarded way of putting it, because it describes what is happening quite accurately, but I do like your way of putting it. 'Global climate crisis' seems to capture the problem much better.
The climate is described by the laws of Physics and Chemistry. And also Biology. These have NOT changed. The phenomena have not changed. The dynamics haven't changed. What may have changed are the inputs: more CO2 emissions, more CO2 and methane emitted by the biosphere, more intense solar radiation. If the weather is a dynamical system, it is (by definition) always changing. Moreover, "change" only means things are…
Re: Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
The climate is described by the laws of Physics and Chemistry. And also Biology. These have NOT changed. The phenomena have not changed. The dynamics haven't changed. What may have changed are the inputs: more CO2 emissions, more CO2 and methane emitted by the biosphere, more intense solar radiation. If the weather is a dynamical system, it is (by definition) always changing. Moreover, "change" only means things are…
Look up "climate" and "weather" before you make silly arguments about what can be claimed about them.
What exactly is "silly" about what I wrote? Are you going to claim that the laws of fluid dynamics and heat transfer have changed?
Re: Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
#29Krugman is a dismal scientist (a.k.a. economist), not a real scientist. His pedantry and demagogy are too much to bear. He can't even predict the effects of economic policy and now he's trying to predict the weather? What next? Contrary to popular belief, the ice caps are not shriking all the time. Sure, they were shrinking really fast some years ago, and everyone went hysterical because of the rising sea levels and…
Your data is wrong. Did you even bother to check? http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic_thinice.htm... "Until recently, the majority of Arctic sea ice survived at least one summer and often several. But things have changed dramatically, according to a team of University of Colorado, Boulder, scientists led by Charles Fowler. Thin seasonal ice -- ice that melts and re-freezes every year -- makes up about 70…
Could warming have caused ice to melt in the northern hemisphere and grow in the Antartic? It's possible, but the explanation starts smelling like a "just so story". The explanation by NASA that the loss of Artic Ice is caused by cyclical changes in global wind patterns seems to better fit the facts. (see http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/quikscat-200... and http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-th... )
You people are hopeless. Data, facts, evidence -- none of it sways you. It's like some religion.
Please, let's stop with the personal attacks.
Re: Krugman on the Climate Change Conspiracy
#30I'll never understand why those who argue that there's such a serious problem with climate change also seem to not want to debate the topic much. If this is just a matter of science then shouldn't the facts speak loudly enough that those who argue to the contrary wouldn't have much to say at all? And why all the pressure to force through this issue through Congress without proper time for review? Weren't Democrats ma…
seem to not want to debate the topic much Let's say you are a pilot in an airplane at 30,000 feet and the fuel gage reads 20 minutes from empty. For how long are you willing to debate with your copilot that we need to declare an emergency and land right now? What if the gage is just broken and you think you have 20 minutes of fuel left? At some point people that feel there is a problem will want to act. And the globa…
If that were actually the situation, you'd land at the airport 10 minutes away. If you don't, I'd wonder about what you're telling me about the gauge.
If the folks who claim to be so concerned and informed about climate change were serious, we'd be breaking ground on a new nuclear power plant every week or so and we'd be completing them in 2 years.
Instead, we're thinking about breaking ground for some several years from now and the way the regs are set up, those won't get approved when they reach the decision point. The planned construction time also exceeds what could easily be achieved by someone who wanted power soon.
The US gets 20% of its electricity from nuclear. France gets over 70%. Moreover, if we had a huge surplus of electricity, we could start using it for more things.
Instead, we're passing out subsidies to the politically connected.
If you want people to think that climate change is a serious problem, you have to act as if it is. The AGW folks aren't and never have.