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Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

economictimes.indiatimes.com

21–30 of 48 posts

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#21

Buffet is just a shill for the USG in the confidence game of US treasuries. Sure the fed is under no pressure to sell, the pressure is really on the fed to not stop buying. QE infinity is all about hiding the fact foreigners are exiting treasuries so the fed is the last resort buyer of USG debt. Without the fed backstopping, interest rates paid by the USG on its debt would have to go up which would very quickly crash…

> the fact foreigners are exiting treasuries

Can you back up that claim?

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#22
Nice clear thinking from Buffet. The ideas are very old, only the implementation is new.

First, the Fed's actions are a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus. They are not different to Keynes' idea of fiscal stimulus, since they inject money into the economy in cases where even zero interest rates couldn't.

Second, in order for stimulus to work, it must convince people to make long term decisions (such as building physical factories, starting companies, buying durable goods, etc.) and therefore the Fed must commit to a long term stimulus plan. Buffet clearly outlines the Fed's approach to making this commitment.

I know a lot of people on HN are deeply suspicious of mainstream macroeconomics, and that is understandable since even with my training I can't really verify that people in the field are doing things right. However, I will say that there are a large number of countries in the world that are big enough to have their independent macroeconomic policy. So far, no country I'm aware of has chosen not to use the above two principles, which together can be taken as a summary of neo-Keynsian economics. If there really some better way out there I think that some country would have tried it.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#23

Nice clear thinking from Buffet. The ideas are very old, only the implementation is new. First, the Fed's actions are a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus. They are not different to Keynes' idea of fiscal stimulus, since they inject money into the economy in cases where even zero interest rates couldn't. Second, in order for stimulus to work, it must convince people to make long term decisions (such as building phys…

You also have to consider the weight each country carries in a global economy.

Everyone is tied to everyone else, and so there are bigger players and smaller players. If you are a country with an economy that does not do business with other countries (eg you do not import nor do you export), then you probably have more macroeconomic independence.

So if China or Japan try to move independently, they can't, because in order to buy or sell goods to other countries, they have to buy and sell those other countries' currencies. And the business of buying or selling currencies is tied to macroeconomic policy.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#24
post #21

Buffet is just a shill for the USG in the confidence game of US treasuries. Sure the fed is under no pressure to sell, the pressure is really on the fed to not stop buying. QE infinity is all about hiding the fact foreigners are exiting treasuries so the fed is the last resort buyer of USG debt. Without the fed backstopping, interest rates paid by the USG on its debt would have to go up which would very quickly crash…

> the fact foreigners are exiting treasuries Can you back up that claim?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/16/us-usa-economy-cap...

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#25
The Fed is not driven by a profit motive, but rather acts in the best interests of the people of the United States. This makes it as opposite of a hedge fund as you can get.

Buffett is tongue-lashing the Fed in public because Buffet's investments won't do well if inflation hits, and he wants the Fed to reabsorb all of the money it has printed before inflation appears.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#26

Nice clear thinking from Buffet. The ideas are very old, only the implementation is new. First, the Fed's actions are a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus. They are not different to Keynes' idea of fiscal stimulus, since they inject money into the economy in cases where even zero interest rates couldn't. Second, in order for stimulus to work, it must convince people to make long term decisions (such as building phys…

You also have to consider the weight each country carries in a global economy. Everyone is tied to everyone else, and so there are bigger players and smaller players. If you are a country with an economy that does not do business with other countries (eg you do not import nor do you export), then you probably have more macroeconomic independence. So if China or Japan try to move independently, they can't, because in…

I was implying that when I said "countries in the world that are big enough to have their independent macroeconomic policy", but that was somewhat glossing over the issues you've raised.

I'm not a macro expert, but my understanding is that a country need not be completely autonomous in order to have its own macro policy. Goods cannot flow perfectly between countries, and so macro policy will always have some effect.

The more a country imports and exports, and the smaller the country, the less impact its macro policy will have.

So the reserve bank of China can influence Chinese interest rates and hence have an impact on the Chinese economy. On the other hand the reserve bank of a "small open economy" cannot do much to change interest rates.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#27
If any person, non-profit, or regular corporation, ran their business the way the Federal Reserve did, they would be in jail as soon as what they were doing was public knowledge.

The only reason we have this ridiculous system in place is because military force.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#28

Nice clear thinking from Buffet. The ideas are very old, only the implementation is new. First, the Fed's actions are a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus. They are not different to Keynes' idea of fiscal stimulus, since they inject money into the economy in cases where even zero interest rates couldn't. Second, in order for stimulus to work, it must convince people to make long term decisions (such as building phys…

Why do I get the feeling that the "green" in the accounts on this sub-thread, smell like "astroturf"? We get a guy who claims he is an econ PHD (no email, no proof of that).

Obviously you haven't read Keynes, or you have at least referenced his warning:

^^^ Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become 'profiteers,' who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.

Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose. ^^^

(I add: the one man in a million including, apparently, people with PHDs)

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#29
post #21

Buffet is just a shill for the USG in the confidence game of US treasuries. Sure the fed is under no pressure to sell, the pressure is really on the fed to not stop buying. QE infinity is all about hiding the fact foreigners are exiting treasuries so the fed is the last resort buyer of USG debt. Without the fed backstopping, interest rates paid by the USG on its debt would have to go up which would very quickly crash…

> the fact foreigners are exiting treasuries Can you back up that claim?

Actually, foreign Central Banks don't even need to dump treasuries to require QE Infinity - they can just reduce or stop absorbing the continual outflow of debt emitted by the USG. The USG has a trillion dollar+ yearly budget deficit. If central banks don't absorb that outflow of debt then either the USG reduces its spend (as if, those NSA datacentres aren't cheap), interest rates go up (USG will need will need even more debt to pay its debt) or the fed continues to buy it all up.

Re: Warren Buffett compares US Fed to a hedge fund

#30
post #7

"'The Fed is the greatest hedge fund in history, ... it's generating $80 billion or $90 billion a year probably' in revenue" Can you get more asinine than that? Probably? How is this relevant when the Fed is printing $85 BILLION a month to finance ongoing bond purchases? Guys like Buffet must absolutely love the Fed because they have an outlet to offload their illiquid garbage bonds and derivatives. Imagine if you ma…

>illiquid garbage bonds and derivatives.

You can go to the FED site and look at all the bonds they purchased from the financial institutions. Outside of the Maiden Lane's, most of the bonds have increased in value. This was a profitable trade for the FED; liquid cash for bonds well below par.

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