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Peak Oil Perspective

physics.ucsd.edu

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Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#21

Post by rybosome »

fleitz wrote: post #5

Peak oil depends on oil price, the world is awash in oil at $110. Even up to 2005 oil's peak price was $60. Peak oil also depends on consumption, with cars like Tesla coming out we'll see a sharp decline in consumption over the next 20 to 30 years, at $300/bl a Tesla starts to make a lot of sense. The world will never run out of oil, its price will simply continue to increase until other alternatives become economica…

This makes sense economically, but that doesn't address the difficulties we will face as oil becomes too expensive for common, important uses. Our fleet of oil-consuming vehicles won't magically convert themselves. The oil-backed electrical grid will take a hit. Food will become incredibly expensive (or more scarce) since the vast majority will come from far away, and have been transported via oil.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#24

Post by forgingahead »

thoughtsimple wrote: post #16
fleitz wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most countries tax oil heavily. Europe and Canada come to mind.

And in the US we are starting to tax cars that use less gasoline than average. Not exactly in sync with the problem.

Yes, because the gas tax is not used only to discourage consumption, but to fund road construction and repair.[1]

The simple consequence of getting used to the idea of a tax revenue stream (because current and future spending depends on it), only to have that revenue stream be threatened (because of non-gas guzzling vehicles), leads to the blunt reaction of "hey, let's just tax them more".

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_Trust_Fund

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#25

Post by randomdata »

rayiner wrote: post #11
jofer wrote: post #4

As a geologist in the oil industry, this is one of the few articles I've seen on peak oil that absolutely nails the salient points. (And even gets the geology correct.) To quote: "Most simply, peak oil is about rates, not amounts." Yes, there are a lot of unconventional resources. They're just a lot harder, more expensive, and most importantly in this context, slower to produce. On the upshot for me, and the downshot…

The concept "peak oil" to me seems to misdirect the debate right off the bat. Obviously the question isn't "when do we run out of oil" but "how does oil supply given continually increasing demand affect oil price" and "what does rising oil price do to the rest of the economy? Inflation-adjusted, the price of a barrel of crude oil was $23 in 1960, and has been averaging almost $88 in 2013. What does that do to, e.g.,…

Where I would say that peak oil is about exactly the points you raised, and has nothing to do with running out of oil. The "peak" refers to the point where oil becomes so expensive that demand wanes and production starts to decline.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#26

Post by gshubert17 »

rybosome wrote: post #21
fleitz wrote: post #5

Peak oil depends on oil price, the world is awash in oil at $110. Even up to 2005 oil's peak price was $60. Peak oil also depends on consumption, with cars like Tesla coming out we'll see a sharp decline in consumption over the next 20 to 30 years, at $300/bl a Tesla starts to make a lot of sense. The world will never run out of oil, its price will simply continue to increase until other alternatives become economica…

This makes sense economically, but that doesn't address the difficulties we will face as oil becomes too expensive for common, important uses. Our fleet of oil-consuming vehicles won't magically convert themselves. The oil-backed electrical grid will take a hit. Food will become incredibly expensive (or more scarce) since the vast majority will come from far away, and have been transported via oil.

Not just that. Most corn production heavily depends on oil-based inputs, such as fertilizer, fuel for machinery, and natural gas for drying and storage. Corn from the same county will become much more expensive, even without transportation costs.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#27

Post by fleitz »

rybosome wrote: post #21
fleitz wrote: post #5

Peak oil depends on oil price, the world is awash in oil at $110. Even up to 2005 oil's peak price was $60. Peak oil also depends on consumption, with cars like Tesla coming out we'll see a sharp decline in consumption over the next 20 to 30 years, at $300/bl a Tesla starts to make a lot of sense. The world will never run out of oil, its price will simply continue to increase until other alternatives become economica…

This makes sense economically, but that doesn't address the difficulties we will face as oil becomes too expensive for common, important uses. Our fleet of oil-consuming vehicles won't magically convert themselves. The oil-backed electrical grid will take a hit. Food will become incredibly expensive (or more scarce) since the vast majority will come from far away, and have been transported via oil.

Oil backed electrical grid? Where do you live exactly?

No one uses oil to generate any significant amount of electricity, most gas turbines are powered by natural gas, since it's cheap and plentiful. Gas turbines are only used to peak load not base load since coal is even cheaper than natural gas.

Most people spend more in fuel getting their groceries home than transporting them to the store. Food miles should be calculated by the distance to the grocery store from your home.

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#28

Post by [deleted] »

rybosome wrote: post #18

> The risk is asymmetric: starting a crash program toward replacement of finite fossil fuels too early has great up-sides and marginal downsides (opportunity cost); but failure to act has enormous downside for marginal upside. - See more at: http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/peak-oil-perspec... This is a more intelligent way of stating something I've been saying for years. I always explain my position on pe…

[deleted]

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#29

Post by rayiner »

randomdata wrote: post #25
rayiner wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The concept "peak oil" to me seems to misdirect the debate right off the bat. Obviously the question isn't "when do we run out of oil" but "how does oil supply given continually increasing demand affect oil price" and "what does rising oil price do to the rest of the economy? Inflation-adjusted, the price of a barrel of crude oil was $23 in 1960, and has been averaging almost $88 in 2013. What does that do to, e.g.,…

Where I would say that peak oil is about exactly the points you raised, and has nothing to do with running out of oil. The "peak" refers to the point where oil becomes so expensive that demand wanes and production starts to decline.

"Peak" in peak oil, at least as I understand it, refers to "peak rate of extraction." Or at least that's what Wikipedia says.

Re: "peak price" -- the punchline is that demand is almost inelastic!

Re: Peak Oil Perspective

#30

Post by at-fates-hands »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #6
jofer wrote: post #4

As a geologist in the oil industry, this is one of the few articles I've seen on peak oil that absolutely nails the salient points. (And even gets the geology correct.) To quote: "Most simply, peak oil is about rates, not amounts." Yes, there are a lot of unconventional resources. They're just a lot harder, more expensive, and most importantly in this context, slower to produce. On the upshot for me, and the downshot…

> However, we haven't developed a viable alternative to liquid fossil fuels in terms of energy-density fast enough. That very, very deeply scares me. Electric cars are getting there, and there is always domestic natgas production in the US. It won't be fun, but that's what we get for dragging our feet. The US had this happen in the 70's (oil embargo). It's been 40+ years. Its our own damn fault.

Oh man I couldn't agree more. I still refer back to Jimmy Cater's 1977 speech were he warned about our dependency on oil. Not just foreign oil (which a lot of people mistakenly think he said) and yet after 30 years, we're still in the same place.

Pretty depressing if you ask me.

Here's the speech: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/primary-...

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