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Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

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Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#21
post #5

It goes without saying that you won't get personally rich from any contract or investment without running the numbers . However, many employees consider it pretty enriching to work in a start-up environment for $200k+/year of salary and stock options, where the stock option portion is generally going up. If you actually join early enough to get 0.25% of a company, like immediately post VC raise, usually the "success"…

Startup jobs at $200k are fairly rare, and not really accessible unless you're an executive implant. At least in New York, very few startup boards will sign off on an engineer salary at that level. 0.25 percent of a post-A company is pretty weak sauce. You should value equity at a fraction of what investors do. First, investors are diversified. You're not. Second, their stake gets the VCs control and an excuse to han…

The fact that investors are diversified and you're not is not a reason to value your equity stake differently than their equity stake. However, another valid reason to undervalue your stake relative to investors: the fact that investors get liquidity preferences.

Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#22

I already brought some Indignation Sauce to this topic: http://michaelochurch.wordpress.com/2012/07/08/dont-waste-yo... Mark Suster is right about the financials. You won't get rich. I will go further. The VC-istan startup promise is empty. You probably won't get investor contact unless you negotiate for it. Why would they help you get the connections needed to be a founder, when the alternative is that you not get t…

I really enjoyed your article. It clearly contains a lot more wisdom than Suster's. Still, I think you underestimate how little one can learn in a big company. It all depends what team you land on and who your manager is, and it can be a huge crapshoot. At least at a startup you have a guarantee that the company needs to focus on fundamentals and you will never be chastised for thinking about the business case for what you are doing (obviously this is not strictly true, but those kinds of startups tend to die fast). At a big company you may be assigned to a team doing something irrelevant that exists purely for political reasons. Your boss is as likely as not to be [Gervais Principle] clueless and the only thing you learn is corporate politics. That might help your earning potential down the road, but it won't make you a better engineer. Sure if you get on the AWS team at Amazon or work at Google or Facebook you get an opportunity to work with tech that a startup could never lay their hands on, but those jobs are hardly the corporate average.

You're right that it's no justification for taking a poor package at a startup, but I think the median startup job is much better than the median corporate job in terms of engineering education.

Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#23
post #20

As usual, Mark tells a good story by leaving out a lot. So, he has "(0.5%) eventually sell for $150 million or more". Okay, so what? Is his argument that the chances of an entrepreneur are just a lottery draw with winning odds of 0.5%? If so, then that's misleading. Why? Because it shouldn't be a lottery draw. Instead, the entrepreneur should know more than just a lottery draw. The entrepreneur should have done some…

This is at best true for the entrepreneur (and even then you strike me as someone who has never founded a startup, because it never goes smoothly according to plan). A prospective employee has no better chance than a VC at picking winners.

Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#24
>If you really want to earn you need to be in the top 3-4 in the company. Best to be a founder. Very few people can do this. It’s a rare skill. Be realistic about your skills, background and ideas.

As an addendum to this: be realistic what this means in terms of work-life balance or whatever you want to call it. Any executive position that lets you EARN will not only take up large chunks of your life but it will basically become your life. You will have to be available almost 24/7, you will be having phone conferences on the weekends, you will be checking your smartphone constantly, getting ready for meetings, you will be going through tons of paper, you will be having a LOT of unpleasant conversations with all sorts of people for all sorts of reasons. And you will have to put up with the particular kind of people these positions of power typically attract. And remember, the further at the top, the lonelier it gets and especially in large organizations you will have to protect yourself from all sorts of politics and other shenanigans. There is a reason burn-out, heart attack and psychological issues are so extremely prevalent amongst managers.

So before you do make that decision to EARN, you should talk to friends or other people in similar positions and get a feel for what their whole life is like - then decide if that's for you. Money is one thing but what is that nice little place in an exotic country worth when you die from a heart attack at age 50 or 60?

(source: my best friend's partner holds an executive position for an S&P500 company; another friend took over the successful family business)

Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#25
post #24

> If you really want to earn you need to be in the top 3-4 in the company. Best to be a founder. Very few people can do this. It’s a rare skill. Be realistic about your skills, background and ideas. As an addendum to this: be realistic what this means in terms of work-life balance or whatever you want to call it. Any executive position that lets you EARN will not only take up large chunks of your life but it will bas…

Sounds exactly like consulting, or the experience of friends who have worked as startup employees (all the work with few of the perks).

Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#26
post #20

As usual, Mark tells a good story by leaving out a lot. So, he has "(0.5%) eventually sell for $150 million or more". Okay, so what? Is his argument that the chances of an entrepreneur are just a lottery draw with winning odds of 0.5%? If so, then that's misleading. Why? Because it shouldn't be a lottery draw. Instead, the entrepreneur should know more than just a lottery draw. The entrepreneur should have done some…

This is at best true for the entrepreneur (and even then you strike me as someone who has never founded a startup, because it never goes smoothly according to plan). A prospective employee has no better chance than a VC at picking winners.

The "chances", that is, the probability, is close to irrelevant. Instead what is just crucial is the conditional probability conditioned on the information one has. Even if the probability is low, with suitable extra information the conditional probability can be quite high.

You understand: You saw the move 'Wall Street', right? So, what was the probability of a big move up of the PA steel company? Low, right? "A dog with fleas". But the conditional probability given that the takeover guy's plane was flying to PA was quite high. Got it now?

Again, yet again, to repeat just for you, from my three examples in my post, it's possible to plan effectively, even for advanced projects, and then perform according to plan with relatively low risk.

On picking winners, VCs don't try very hard to evaluate projects. E.g., recently a VC told me that he sees a lot of projects that currently have $2000 a month in revenue. Thus he missed the point: No doubt at one time each of Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook had about $2000 a month in revenue. What is just crucial in picking "winners" is essentially to f'get about the $2000 a month and look closely at the project. VCs don't like to do that. Moreover, in recent years in information technology projects, VCs just don't want to believe that there could be any advanced, solid, unique, powerful, valuable technology difficult to duplicate or equal to be evaluated. Evaluating technology and projects just isn't how their business model works.

On my startup experience, you were guessing and guessed incorrectly.

Are you writing for Mark?

Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#27

A lot of peoples eyes glaze over when they go into startups because they hear all the success stories. It can definitely happen in this field, but most people don't realize what it takes. I hate that starting a company is becoming almost trendy now and everyone is trying it. Edit: and I guess on one hand innovation and providing jobs is good but for everyone to want to do it now is a little crazy.

> I hate that starting a company is becoming almost trendy now and everyone is trying it.

I hate that taking an office job was ever trendy and that most people do it.

Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#28
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is at best true for the entrepreneur (and even then you strike me as someone who has never founded a startup, because it never goes smoothly according to plan). A prospective employee has no better chance than a VC at picking winners.

The "chances", that is, the probability, is close to irrelevant. Instead what is just crucial is the conditional probability conditioned on the information one has. Even if the probability is low, with suitable extra information the conditional probability can be quite high. You understand: You saw the move 'Wall Street', right? So, what was the probability of a big move up of the PA steel company? Low, right? "A dog…

Yeah, I "get it". Sheesh, no need to be so fucking condescending. If it's so easy to pick winners why aren't you doing more angel investing instead of complaining about hot air from VCs?

Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Startup jobs at $200k are fairly rare, and not really accessible unless you're an executive implant. At least in New York, very few startup boards will sign off on an engineer salary at that level. 0.25 percent of a post-A company is pretty weak sauce. You should value equity at a fraction of what investors do. First, investors are diversified. You're not. Second, their stake gets the VCs control and an excuse to han…

The fact that investors are diversified and you're not is not a reason to value your equity stake differently than their equity stake. However, another valid reason to undervalue your stake relative to investors: the fact that investors get liquidity preferences.

The fact that investors are diversified and you're not is not a reason to value your equity stake differently than their equity stake.

Actually, it is. For some theoretical literature on this, look into the Kelly Criterion, which argues that the best financial strategy is to optimize for log(W), where W is your total wealth (including future income, properly discounted, less costs of living, if one wants to get technical). The assumption is that, since it's (approximately) as hard to go from $50 to $100 as from $100 to $200, the proper utility function is the logarithm.

If you're a person of average means, you'd rather have $4.5 million than a 50-50 shot at $10 million. If you're a billionaire, you'd rather have the latter because of its superior EV.

Correlations also play a role. Assets with negative beta (correlation to equity market performance) can actually trade above expected value because of their risk-reducing benefit: they go up when the world goes down, which makes them desirable as hedges. All in all, you'd rather not have a basket of assets that all dive at the same time.

As a startup employee, you're typically poor enough to be risk-averse, and the one asset that you hold (equity) is correlated to your job and your reputation. Taking equity in lieu of cash makes you very exposed. You should expect a lot of equity to account for this. If you're giving up $20,000 per year in salary, you expect about $100,000 per year in equity at-valuation. Why? Because in addition to the concerns above, not only are you giving up some salary at the time, but you're also giving up future salary because startups tend not to give raises. (When things go well, the equity appreciation is the raise; when things go to shit, it's not a time to ask for much of anything.)

As an investor, you're rich and diversified enough that you can value assets at EV. As an employee dependent on stable income and reputation, you should be a lot more cautious about taking on that high-risk asset. Your life can go to shit in all sorts of ways: business failure isn't even the worst of them. The investor just sees the loss as a cost of doing business.

If nothing else, Zynga established what can go wrong when the bulk of your financial wealth is tied up by your employer. I mean, talk about a gigantic abuse of power: one's financial portfolio controlled by someone with firing authority.

VC-istan is built on the backs of young engineers who don't understand this stuff.

Re: Is it Time for You to Earn or to Learn?

#30
post #20

As usual, Mark tells a good story by leaving out a lot. So, he has "(0.5%) eventually sell for $150 million or more". Okay, so what? Is his argument that the chances of an entrepreneur are just a lottery draw with winning odds of 0.5%? If so, then that's misleading. Why? Because it shouldn't be a lottery draw. Instead, the entrepreneur should know more than just a lottery draw. The entrepreneur should have done some…

This is at best true for the entrepreneur (and even then you strike me as someone who has never founded a startup, because it never goes smoothly according to plan). A prospective employee has no better chance than a VC at picking winners.

A prospective employee has no better chance than a VC at picking winners.

Bingo. In fact, the employee is less informed. If the VC asks to see the cap table, it happens. If the employee asks to see the cap table, the offer goes away because it was a "rude question". A VC can get lunch with investors and co-workers at the founders' previous companies. The employee has to decide, based on an hour where both parties are posturing, whether he "basically likes the guy". VCs can assess the engineer compensation structure and get a basic sense of what kind of coding chops the company will be able to get. The engineer knows his offer and nothing else.

If anything, we're talking about a market where employees trade time (often of unconsidered value, because they're too young to know what they're worth) for illiquid stock their parents would (for their own protection, although it's debatable whether such laws are good) not be legally allowed to buy. The VCs, with webs of social connections that de-risk the whole process for them, are hard-core insider traders.

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