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Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

intrade.com

21–30 of 58 posts

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#21
They are taking several extraordinary measures:

1. Settling all open contracts. 2. Shutting down trading. 3. Not making cash payouts.

#3 would be the end result of any of various sorts of problems. #1/#2, however, suggest there were problems with the prediction markets themselves, rather than -- for example -- straight embezzlement from the company's bank accounts.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#23
post #2

The title here is misleading. They are "ceasing trading activity" ... "as we do all we can to resume operations as promptly as possible." The statement alludes to "financial irregularities" which are being investigated.

Read between the lines. There's likely been fraud here. They aren't coming back from this.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#24

The money is gone. Either fraud (founders were skimming off the top all along), or they got hacked (and the 'hack' could have been an inside job as well). That's why they're not paying out - they don't have enough funds available. Same thing happened previously to one of the largest bitcoin exchanges[1]. [1] http://www.dailytech.com/Inside+the+MegaHack+of+Bitcoin+the+...

Or it could be the most likely explanation: the existing US federal investigation of Intrade is moving to the next phase, a grand jury has issued a sealed indictment of Intrade staff, and their assets have been frozen.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#26

The money is gone. Either fraud (founders were skimming off the top all along), or they got hacked (and the 'hack' could have been an inside job as well). That's why they're not paying out - they don't have enough funds available. Same thing happened previously to one of the largest bitcoin exchanges[1]. [1] http://www.dailytech.com/Inside+the+MegaHack+of+Bitcoin+the+...

[deleted]

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#28
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, "financial irregularities which in accordance with Irish law oblige the directors ..." is legalese that, in essence, means something like "we've caught someone [stealing from the cookie jar / lying about losses] on a so large scale that the board is not sure if the company will be able to pay the money it owes to everyone". There are just a few cases where the law obliges directors to do something; I'm not an e…

Well, it's worse than that. No significant company would shut down in this manner unless they were 100% certain that they did NOT have the money to pay their debts.

... or a court ordered them to do this.

Re: Intrade Ceases Trading Activity

#30
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, "financial irregularities which in accordance with Irish law oblige the directors ..." is legalese that, in essence, means something like "we've caught someone [stealing from the cookie jar / lying about losses] on a so large scale that the board is not sure if the company will be able to pay the money it owes to everyone". There are just a few cases where the law obliges directors to do something; I'm not an e…

Well, it's worse than that. No significant company would shut down in this manner unless they were 100% certain that they did NOT have the money to pay their debts.

I don't think that's true. Financial regulations tend to force you to pull the plug as soon as you can no longer prove that you are solvent. There's a large range between "cannot prove we do" and "can prove we do not".
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