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Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

gatesnotes.com

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Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#21

Post by YackerLose »

dostick wrote: post #13

> We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates. And I thought he is a smart man. This is so last century thinking. We need to prepare that there will definitely be no jobs for everyone and that will be falling all the time, it’s not a one-time event you should “prepare for”. There’s nothing to prepare, we already have funds and productivity to feed a…

Somehow, I don't think the people with all the money, gunmen and (soon) robots will be OK with the world you envision.

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#22

Post by debo_ »

asdf88990 wrote: post #18
debo_ wrote: post #10

> I believe we should tax AI tokens and robots. Right now, if you’re an employer and you hire someone, you pay payroll taxes on their earnings. But if you buy a robot, you can usually write it off right away as a business expense. The tax system nudges you toward replacing people with machines.

Taxing AI tokens and Robots is not going to work. We can’t even define a robot, tokens are also too abstract and there is endless ways of gaming it, and let’s not forget cross border operations. Tax profits, it was always the most equitable option.

I do think taxing profits is still insufficient, because unless the tax rate is close to 100% (lol) the "k-shaped" economy is still reinforced, but just slowed slightly. In combination with a wealth/holdings tax, maybe.

Personally I think the idea of taxing robots/tokens directly is too narrow an idea.

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#24

Post by tao_oat »

simianwords wrote: post #14

It’s a good thoughtful piece. If I may suggest, the main problem and I mean the actual main problem are those people who underestimate the capabilities of AI. The ones who think it hallucinates all the time, unreliable and mostly useless. The average person thinks this technology is overhyped (like Emily Bender) so how would one even begin to have a conversation with them on the risks?

This is my experience too. Many people in my offline, non-techy life seem to get almost upset when I argue that models are good at many things (and getting better fast).

And I kind of get it! If your primary exposure to AI is Google search summaries (from their cheapest models) and shitty AI graphic design, it makes sense to think it's vastly overhyped.

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#25

Post by kypro »

dostick wrote: post #13

> We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates. And I thought he is a smart man. This is so last century thinking. We need to prepare that there will definitely be no jobs for everyone and that will be falling all the time, it’s not a one-time event you should “prepare for”. There’s nothing to prepare, we already have funds and productivity to feed a…

How are you going to get UBI?

Are you going to strike? Are we going to take on the government by force?

People need to understand there is no democracy in a post-AGI world.

The power of human collectives comes from a combination of our collective economic power and our physical power. Without either leaders would be smart to just do what the companies paying all the bills ask if they don't want their families to starve too.

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#27

Post by dhd415 »

I thought Gates' take on the human relational aspects of AI to be thoughtful, but I am surprised that his analysis on the economic and jobs aspect of AI offers little more than the party line. Every other technological advance that improved productivity (Industrial Revolution, etc.) has resulted in the loss of some jobs but the creation of jobs in other areas and an overall increase in the standard of living (although admittedly not uniformly distributed across the population). Why will AI be different?

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#28

Post by cupofjoakim »

The issues are global and they are correct. The landscape is not the same in US as in other countries, but this is a global problem and should be handled as such.

I'm not against a tax on AI or robots, but I think this may be the big chance we have to look at universal income with new eyes. If jobs are to disappear, why not soften the blow and get rid of some of the inefficiencies many government processes mean in terms of other citizen benefits?

What I worry about more however is the malevolent actors across the AI space. I'd argue that most companies mean well, but chasing profit at all costs can very easily turn into malevolence. Both these and actors being malevolent on purpose needs to have a control function.

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#30

Post by miyoji »

dostick wrote: post #13

> We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates. And I thought he is a smart man. This is so last century thinking. We need to prepare that there will definitely be no jobs for everyone and that will be falling all the time, it’s not a one-time event you should “prepare for”. There’s nothing to prepare, we already have funds and productivity to feed a…

> all of us waiting for government bureaucrats to realise that UBI is a right

You'll be waiting forever, then. This isn't something that you can wait to be given to you, it must be taken.

Or, put much more eloquently by one of the greatest Americans:

"This struggle may be a moral one, or it may be a physical one, and it may be both moral and physical, but it must be a struggle. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress"

- Frederick Douglass

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