I have concerns regarding insider trading (as I certainly do regarding the stock market), but Kalshi's statement seems straightforward: "If you want to ban profiting from the failure of clinical trials, you would start with the stock market, where the financial incentive for this type of profit is orders of magnitude larger," I remember a time not too long ago when storm insurance was unavailable for large portions o…
> If you want to ban profiting from the failure of clinical trials, you would start with the stock market It's not really a winning argument to say "We should be allowed to make money doing this harmful thing because many other people are also making money in a very different way with a different set of risks and potential harms"
The only difference is that equity markets are orders of magnitude larger than prediction markets in both depth and liquidity and offer much more incentive for fraud/tampering given the much much higher rewards.
Should we ban biotech companies from raising money in public equity markets since the risk is so much higher than prediction markets?