10% seems low. I think 1.5-3x is more like it without sacrificing quality. You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much.
> if you don’t care about the results too much.
if you like slop
AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
21–30 of 38 posts
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#22My unsolicited thoughts: * AI will drive additional features as development accelerates * There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers * Those fast adopting AI companies will be able to garner additional revenue * Gap closes as AI benefits slow in their impact to feature development and slower adopting companies catch up * Companies that were faster adopters can no lo…
* AI will drive 10x bike shedding for 90% of the consumers diluting any real speed up, except the one...autist.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#23How long it takes for a seasoned developer to write a full app with database design, full authentication register/login/logout/forgot/session, basic crud for all entities, payment processing, admin dashboard with analytics, recent users, transactions, moderation, etc
Usually from 1 to 3 months
Now it all can be developed in just 5 mins, add cosmetic changes in just 24 hours and you have a fully functioning app already deployed in production
So if that doesn't make you a 10X developer you are not using enough AI
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not really. There's a limit to how much you can focus on and literally type, even caring little about quality.
You dont need to focus if you dont care about quality. Overworked teams do it all the time.
You need to make sure the text you're typing actually compiles into a working program, so there is some degree of focus required. Compare that with vibe coding, just type a sentence of what you want and it does everything itself with no continued focus from you. The degree is completely different.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#25This is very similar to how you can double the employees in a company and only get marginal improvement in productivity. If that’s true, AI gives the same gains doubling labour. No?
If you don’t get return on productivity then you cut and get savings
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#2610% seems low. I think 1.5-3x is more like it without sacrificing quality. You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much.
I mean, they went and measured it, you're just "feeling" it?
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#27My unsolicited thoughts: * AI will drive additional features as development accelerates * There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers * Those fast adopting AI companies will be able to garner additional revenue * Gap closes as AI benefits slow in their impact to feature development and slower adopting companies catch up * Companies that were faster adopters can no lo…
> There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers
The fundamental problem is having people doing the right things. Lines of code does not equal real economic value.
I think AI will have a much different effect: raw headcount will no longer give large companies the same moat that they once had.
If AI makes a 10x engineer into an 100x engineer and unlocks this whole world of productivity, getting them to actually deliver 100x requires the proper culture where they aren't blocked by environmental factors, management, and incentive structure.
10x -> 100x is an extreme example, but the point stands: if AI amplifies our productivity and productivity is determined by motivation + environment + alignment on priorities, in order to realize the advantage from AI, a company needs to both embrace it and have the right culture
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#28How long it takes for a seasoned developer to write a full app with database design, full authentication register/login/logout/forgot/session, basic crud for all entities, payment processing, admin dashboard with analytics, recent users, transactions, moderation, etc Usually from 1 to 3 months Now it all can be developed in just 5 mins, add cosmetic changes in just 24 hours and you have a fully functioning app alread…
> Now it all can be developed in just 5 mins
Please go ahead and post a YouTube video showing us all how to do it.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#29> Our team at DX analyzed engineering velocity from November 2024 to February 2026
In my experience Claude Code only really started to be really strong in December 2025 and most people didn’t notice/adopt it until Opus 4.6, which launched in Feb 2026. So I’d expect quite a different result if measure since then.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#30How long it takes for a seasoned developer to write a full app with database design, full authentication register/login/logout/forgot/session, basic crud for all entities, payment processing, admin dashboard with analytics, recent users, transactions, moderation, etc Usually from 1 to 3 months Now it all can be developed in just 5 mins, add cosmetic changes in just 24 hours and you have a fully functioning app alread…
> Now it all can be developed in just 5 mins Please go ahead and post a YouTube video showing us all how to do it.
I would like to add the constraint that if your software doesn't work, regulatory bodies will fine and sanction your country.