Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#21

Post by SoftTalker » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:13 PM UTC

apercu wrote: post #7

vannevar wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has to get bigger. As soon as it starts shrinking, the next round of debt will no longer be able to cover the prior round of commitments. What is happening in AI is essentially a gigantic version of what is happening in consumer auto loans, they just keep refinancing for more and more money. Eventually there will be no one willing to lend them more, and then they'll go to the government to bail them out.

I'm not sure a government can bail out these irrational companies and have it not be political suicide.

Those companies are already roundly hated by the general voting public, so I agree.

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#22

Post by fullshark » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC

jdalgetty wrote: post #4

At what point do I start taking money out of my VTI holdings and parking it in cash - there is no way the market keeps going up.

Just need a larger emergency fund to mitigate the risk, especially if you work in tech and you feel the crash would heavily impact your labor earnings (including possibly extended unemployment)

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#23

Post by randyrand » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:18 PM UTC

Circular is a dumb way to describe it IMO, because it's not like both parties end up in the same place.

Nvidia is making trades for people to buy their GPUs.

Sometimes companies are trading stock for GPUs, sometimes money, other times something else.

In summary, Nvidia is selling GPUs.

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#24

Post by pinkyboy » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:18 PM UTC

meangenehackman wrote: post #10

It is far better for society when companies like Nvidia spend their money rather horde it like Apple. Nobody (including the dragon) benefits from sitting on piles of gold.

Apple is a $5t company that has $45b cash-on-hand.

Your post is "cute", but 3 or 4 months of operating cash isn't a great example of "sitting on piles of gold".

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#25

Post by georgemcbay » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:19 PM UTC

randyrand wrote: post #23

Circular is a dumb way to describe it IMO, because it's not like both parties end up in the same place. Nvidia is making trades for people to buy their GPUs. Sometimes companies are trading stock for GPUs, sometimes money, other times something else. In summary, Nvidia is selling GPUs.

Its only a problem if you think about it, just don't think about it and no problem!

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#26

Post by ericpauley » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC

jshen wrote: post #12

jdalgetty wrote: post #4

At what point do I start taking money out of my VTI holdings and parking it in cash - there is no way the market keeps going up.

First, don't park it in actual cash or you'll lose value to inflation which is currently running high. At a minimum put it in treasuries. Second, trying to time the market is almost always a suboptimal strategy. The question is when will you likely need the money? If you won't need it for 10 years or more, keep it in index funds. Otherwise, treasuries.

Personally I tend to assume anyone talking about VTI knows about the risk-free rate.

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#27

Post by gdulli » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC

theideaofcoffee wrote: post #6

It's come to a point (or has it passed it) that these numbers are completely meaningless. One hundred billion here, $750B there, $1.2T over a year or so, toss in $300B for a few hyperscalers there. There's no imaginable scenario where these are actually backed up with real profit to where the investments make sense. Just passing the same hundred dollar bill among everyone and all booking it as revenue. I can't wait u…

Displacing a vast amount of labor is what makes the numbers make sense. We don't know if they'll succeed or not, but it's obviously what they're chasing.

In addition to actual lost jobs, replacing a skilled white collar worker with a fungible operator of AI lowers the salary for that role significantly.

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#28

Post by randyrand » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC

georgemcbay wrote: post #25

randyrand wrote: post #23

Circular is a dumb way to describe it IMO, because it's not like both parties end up in the same place. Nvidia is making trades for people to buy their GPUs. Sometimes companies are trading stock for GPUs, sometimes money, other times something else. In summary, Nvidia is selling GPUs.

Its only a problem if you think about it, just don't think about it and no problem!

It's only a problem if you dont think about it.

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#29

Post by Marciplan » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC

randyrand wrote: post #23

Circular is a dumb way to describe it IMO, because it's not like both parties end up in the same place. Nvidia is making trades for people to buy their GPUs. Sometimes companies are trading stock for GPUs, sometimes money, other times something else. In summary, Nvidia is selling GPUs.

are you just heavily invested in Nvidia to not see this as problematic?

Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

#30

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC

vannevar wrote: post #5

bwfan123 wrote: post #2

I guess it gets bigger with each passing day. Tens of billions goes to Hundreds of billions.

It has to get bigger. As soon as it starts shrinking, the next round of debt will no longer be able to cover the prior round of commitments. What is happening in AI is essentially a gigantic version of what is happening in consumer auto loans, they just keep refinancing for more and more money. Eventually there will be no one willing to lend them more, and then they'll go to the government to bail them out.

[deleted]