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Europe's new climate in seven charts

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Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#21

Post by graemep »

iso1631 wrote: post #11
inigyou wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People one or two generations before you felt that about the cold war.

There's a lot of worry about the future, and has been since world-ending threats became apparent However while apocalypse scenarios (Nuclear war, asteroid impact, AI powered biological warfare) are low likelihood, extreme impact, climate change is extreme likelihood and high impact, not just the immediate effect on places like Europe, Canada etc, but also from the conflicts that climate change will drive, which in tu…

Space weather that would bring down our systems is not such low likelihood.

I am not convinced nuclear war or biological warfare are as unlikely as you think. We have historically had narrow escapes from nuclear war.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#22

Post by iso1631 »

yde_java wrote: post #4
Natfan wrote: post #2

to me, these heatwaves feel like the start of the end of human existence

Research past heat waves in Europe. Did your grand parents felt the same as you?

1960 to 1979 had 6 years where UK temperatures went over 30C in June

1980 to 1999 had 6 years

2000 to 2019 had 13 years

2020 to 2026 has had 6 years so far, and we're only 35% of the way through

The longest period of time from 1960 to 2000 where june temperatures went higher than 30 was two years, reaching 30 in 1975 and 36 in 1976.

2021 was the only June in the last 10 years where temperatures didn't reach that 1975 record.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#23

Post by A_D_E_P_T »

Natfan wrote: post #2

to me, these heatwaves feel like the start of the end of human existence

Nah. It's really as simple as this: Southern climates are moving north. (In the northern hemisphere.) If you want a vision of the future, consider a New England that looks more like the Southeast.

There will be winners and losers. As climate zones move toward the poles, weather patterns and agricultural viability will shift with them. This will eventually turn current breadbaskets into deserts while warming up northern/southern regions for longer growing seasons.

Various regions will cross ecological thresholds, causing sudden, dramatic shifts in local climates. For example, a warmer Earth could bring monsoon rains back to the Sahara and Arabian deserts, turning them green once again. In general, a warmer world is a wetter world due to increased oceanic evaporation.

Sea levels will gradually begin rising, but perhaps at a rate of 1-2" per year. It takes a lot of heat to melt glaciers.

Human existence is not in doubt on account of the climate alone -- our prehistoric forebears had a lot worse to deal with -- but there could be mass population movements and alterations in how agriculture is handled globally. Current political structures are not up to this challenge.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#25

Post by epgui »

notrealyme123 wrote: post #5
inigyou wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People one or two generations before you felt that about the cold war.

I think thats the wrong level of abstraction. The cold war ended, but clima change will not end.

The word abstraction does not mean the same thing as the words analogy or comparison.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#27

Post by hyperbovine »

graemep wrote: post #21
iso1631 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot of worry about the future, and has been since world-ending threats became apparent However while apocalypse scenarios (Nuclear war, asteroid impact, AI powered biological warfare) are low likelihood, extreme impact, climate change is extreme likelihood and high impact, not just the immediate effect on places like Europe, Canada etc, but also from the conflicts that climate change will drive, which in tu…

Space weather that would bring down our systems is not such low likelihood. I am not convinced nuclear war or biological warfare are as unlikely as you think. We have historically had narrow escapes from nuclear war.

Climate change also greatly increases the chance of a huge global conflict breaking out.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#28

Post by ricardo81 »

Natfan wrote: post #2

to me, these heatwaves feel like the start of the end of human existence

The prophecies always were about water stress and food security. How that plays out, I don't know.

If it's anything like the recent energy spikes it means burdening future generations of wealthy countries with subsidised amenities while others go without.

Re: Europe's new climate in seven charts

#30

Post by realusername »

yde_java wrote: post #4
Natfan wrote: post #2

to me, these heatwaves feel like the start of the end of human existence

Research past heat waves in Europe. Did your grand parents felt the same as you?

Well, this month has been the absolute record temperatures so we can't say what they would think since they never experienced that
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