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In Praise of Observational Evidence

asteriskmag.com

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Re: In Praise of Observational Evidence

#21

In medicine, observational evidence is actually better and far more ethical than the RCT. (Which simply dooms the terminally ill to fake treatment.) You just need large datasets and an agile culture that's responsive to new input. Don't forget that RCTs are very far from perfect and issues -- sometimes literally fatal issues -- have later turned up via observational evidence in large cohorts. Vioxx, for instance. Man…

> In medicine, observational evidence is actually better and far more ethical than the RCT. (Which simply dooms the terminally ill to fake treatment.)

This is just nonsense. First, everyone in a trial is informed of the situation. It's not "unethical" unless you lie about it. If you participate in a trial, you do so knowing that you might not get the experimental drug. It's a selfless, honorable thing to do, and we shouldn't be framing it as some kind of scam.

Second, we don't give terminally ill people "fake treatment" (placebo trials). We give them current standard of care. Giving someone a placebo trial doesn't prove anything that would change clinical practice, because you want to know if the drug works better than what is out there today. Rarely is that standard of care "nothing", and this (bad controls) is actually a primary reason that a lot of drug company trials are rejected by the FDA.

If I didn't see the Wall Street Journal editorial board repeating the same garbage in defense of patent medicines, I'd write you off as simply having a sophomoric understanding of how trials work. I'm convinced that someone is driving this absurd narrative.

Re: In Praise of Observational Evidence

#23
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This feels off. In medicine, any evidence can also be blinded by confounding factors that are far easier to miss without adding specific controls. Really, in any field this will be the case. Should we demand an RCT before we accept evidence? Of course not. At some point you do have to make a choice on things. And it should be noted that most drugs do have early cutoff criteria if the evidence is strong enough that it…

> "This feels off. In medicine, any evidence can also be blinded by confounding factors that are far easier to miss without adding specific controls. Really, in any field this will be the case." If you have enough data, you can smooth out individual fluctuations due to things like drug interactions, non-compliance, etc. (And indeed you might discover drug interactions!) Observational trials ultimately mirror how drug…

> There's a reason the field's golden age was in the 1940s and 1950s

Yes, that was because of things like

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_syphilis_experiment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stateville_Penitentiary_Malari...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea-Spray

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_human_experimentation

I understand that certain people are salivating at the thought of a return to those times; I'm not one of them.

Re: In Praise of Observational Evidence

#25

RCT is Random Controlled Trial. Definitions are the very basics in writing, check them before you publish.

Where is it defined as "Random Controlled Trial"?

Ignoring the typo above, it's mentioned in the text: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomized_controlled_trial

Re: In Praise of Observational Evidence

#27
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "This feels off. In medicine, any evidence can also be blinded by confounding factors that are far easier to miss without adding specific controls. Really, in any field this will be the case." If you have enough data, you can smooth out individual fluctuations due to things like drug interactions, non-compliance, etc. (And indeed you might discover drug interactions!) Observational trials ultimately mirror how drug…

Right, but you are just relying on a different form of random, there. The whole point of making controls and then building experiments on changing them, is to get more power from fewer observations. No? Again, it is off to think that one is automatically superior to the other. Certainly to the exclusion of the other. And that is what feels off with the framing of the parent post. I am perfectly fine saying you should…

Yeah, GP is basically saying:

"Large controlled experiments are costly and can hurt people who opt-in to informed consent. Instead, we should do significantly, significantly larger experiments, with undefined success/failure conditions, and no informed consent."

Insane opinion

Re: In Praise of Observational Evidence

#28
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "This feels off. In medicine, any evidence can also be blinded by confounding factors that are far easier to miss without adding specific controls. Really, in any field this will be the case." If you have enough data, you can smooth out individual fluctuations due to things like drug interactions, non-compliance, etc. (And indeed you might discover drug interactions!) Observational trials ultimately mirror how drug…

> There's a reason the field's golden age was in the 1940s and 1950s Yes, that was because of things like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_syphilis_experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stateville_Penitentiary_Malari... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea-Spray https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_human_experimentation I understand that certain people are salivating at the thought of a return to those…

>Operation Sea-Spray was a 1950 U.S. Navy secret biological warfare experiment in which Serratia marcescens and Bacillus globigii bacteria were sprayed over the San Francisco Bay Area in California in order to determine how vulnerable a city like San Francisco would be to a bioweapon attack. There has been speculation that the experiment may have contributed to one death and at least ten illnesses.

Wow.

Re: In Praise of Observational Evidence

#29
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "This feels off. In medicine, any evidence can also be blinded by confounding factors that are far easier to miss without adding specific controls. Really, in any field this will be the case." If you have enough data, you can smooth out individual fluctuations due to things like drug interactions, non-compliance, etc. (And indeed you might discover drug interactions!) Observational trials ultimately mirror how drug…

> There's a reason the field's golden age was in the 1940s and 1950s Yes, that was because of things like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_syphilis_experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stateville_Penitentiary_Malari... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea-Spray https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_human_experimentation I understand that certain people are salivating at the thought of a return to those…

Also, despite GP's dismissal of the "low-hanging fruit" hypothesis, it is obviously true that we've found the easy-to-discover drugs, and therefore drugs would get harder and harder to find.

A flippant dismissal in an HN comment does not actually negate reality.

Re: In Praise of Observational Evidence

#30
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This feels off. In medicine, any evidence can also be blinded by confounding factors that are far easier to miss without adding specific controls. Really, in any field this will be the case. Should we demand an RCT before we accept evidence? Of course not. At some point you do have to make a choice on things. And it should be noted that most drugs do have early cutoff criteria if the evidence is strong enough that it…

> "This feels off. In medicine, any evidence can also be blinded by confounding factors that are far easier to miss without adding specific controls. Really, in any field this will be the case." If you have enough data, you can smooth out individual fluctuations due to things like drug interactions, non-compliance, etc. (And indeed you might discover drug interactions!) Observational trials ultimately mirror how drug…

> Demands for increasingly byzantine trials

This is silly.

FDA has essentially one requirement: prove that your drug is safe and effective.

The reason trial designs get more and more byzantine is because the drugs themselves work less-and-less well. They're far more nuanced and precise. The experiments have to be extremely well-controlled, and then this has to balance against cost/timeline of the trial, and that's why sponsors choose to use byzantine trial designs.

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