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Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

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21–30 of 111 posts

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#21
> On top of that comes what is owed to oil companies and suppliers, claims stemming from expropriations under Chávez and the outstanding loans from China and Russia.

It seems like China or Russia would expect to be paid not in dollars, but in Oil Wells and Refineries. Why would they accept restructuring of the debt instead of repo'ing the assets?

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#22
post #16
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously, but $240B is a lot of money for a country with only 9M households, so, around $27K/household. It's an "accomplishment" of sorts to blow up in smoke that much money per household, with nothing to show for it. How the heck did they do that ?

1. Dictator gets loans for his country 2. Dictator puts the money in his Swiss bank account 3. Government is overthrown 4. The populace has to pay off the debt Perhaps him being in custody will lead to some of the money being found and returned.

Isn’t that how private equity works?

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#23

Smart move to acknowledge this and go for the debt restructuring while the current U.S. president sees Venezuela as his major foreign policy win. The government will be able to leverage that to get the U.S. government to push for far more favorable terms for Venezuela than it ever would have otherwise.

It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. Without even changing the party in power, Trump can pretend Venezuela is reformed and do all of the economic normalization a liberal president never would have gotten away with. But the back-to-back policy disasters are otherwise a good reminder that a broken clock is only right twice a day.

> It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked.

It's almost like people currently in the white house know what they're doing, right? Who would have thought! /s

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#24
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corruption.

Obviously, but $240B is a lot of money for a country with only 9M households, so, around $27K/household. It's an "accomplishment" of sorts to blow up in smoke that much money per household, with nothing to show for it. How the heck did they do that ?

They have had an average yearly public budget deficit of %4.8 of GPD since 1990. My very shoddy and quick napkin math comes out as an overall deficit since '90 til now to be ~200 billion dollars. While there's definitely corruption, I think that there's also a place for their economy to be in such a bad state that its been a black hole for this debt.

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#25
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. Without even changing the party in power, Trump can pretend Venezuela is reformed and do all of the economic normalization a liberal president never would have gotten away with. But the back-to-back policy disasters are otherwise a good reminder that a broken clock is only right twice a day.

> It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. It's almost like people currently in the white house know what they're doing, right? Who would have thought! /s

They know what they're doing, it just looks like they don't because they're not doing the thing people think they're doing.

This includes the war with Iran. Double dipping by fueling the military industrial complex blowing it up, then they'll be influencing who gets the contracts for the $300B secured. It makes no sense from a geopolitical standpoint. It makes perfect sense from the perspective of enriching influential persons.

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#26

> On top of that comes what is owed to oil companies and suppliers, claims stemming from expropriations under Chávez and the outstanding loans from China and Russia. It seems like China or Russia would expect to be paid not in dollars, but in Oil Wells and Refineries. Why would they accept restructuring of the debt instead of repo'ing the assets?

If Venezuela used Enron math, then repo'ing the assets could get tricky. Are we sure the same assets haven't been leveraged more than once? Does Russia and China show up with their armies to see who gets it?

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#27

Smart move to acknowledge this and go for the debt restructuring while the current U.S. president sees Venezuela as his major foreign policy win. The government will be able to leverage that to get the U.S. government to push for far more favorable terms for Venezuela than it ever would have otherwise.

It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. Without even changing the party in power, Trump can pretend Venezuela is reformed and do all of the economic normalization a liberal president never would have gotten away with. But the back-to-back policy disasters are otherwise a good reminder that a broken clock is only right twice a day.

Are they doing any normalization? I've fallen behind and assumed it just became dictator apparatus protection as long as there was flattery, i.e. tell us we're in charge and we'll let you ship oil wherever.

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#28
post #2

According to the Financial Times, it will be the world’s largest debt restructuring.[a] Venezuela's economy has been a disaster for many years.[b] Surely I'm not the only one wondering: Where did all that borrowed money go? If any of it had been spent to buy goods and services inside Venezuela, it would have led to at least some business formation and activity. Instead, there's only been business destruction and cons…

Venezuela had one of the largest government sectors compared to their GDP. Their solution to every economic problem was create lots of government busywork jobs funded by oil exports and loans.

Their crude is really only valuable to a handful of countries, the US being the main one. They could really not afford to have worsening relations with the US right as the fracking boom took off.

As their domestic industry shrank, they had to import more and more resources from other countries.

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#29
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. Without even changing the party in power, Trump can pretend Venezuela is reformed and do all of the economic normalization a liberal president never would have gotten away with. But the back-to-back policy disasters are otherwise a good reminder that a broken clock is only right twice a day.

> It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. It's almost like people currently in the white house know what they're doing, right? Who would have thought! /s

I'm happy to give charity as a general principle, but here, we're a bit off (the comment is pointing out ~nothing changed, which is accurate)

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#30
Who lent them the money? Did the government of Venezuela have good credit? It's the creditor's fault as much as - or in this case, arguably more than - the debtor's.

The same applies to some business and personal debt: Sometimes good loans go bad; life has risk; sometimes it's obvious ahead of time. Either way, both parties take on the risk and both are responsible for the outcome. When the creditor is significantly more sophisticated/capable than the debtor - as an extreme example, a credit card company extending credit to someone addicted to gambling - I think the creditor is much more responsible. Another example is Wall Street banks extending credit blindly to real estate investment, causing the 2008 recession.

In government finance, it's a very well-known, well-used tactic for wealthy countries or banks to extend credit to other countries that are unlikely to pay it off (due to limited revenue or competence), eventually giving the creditor significant control of the debtor country. The West used to do it effectively and probably intentionally; China has been doing it more recently. The debtor is starved for capital and won't turn it down; eventually they can't pay and another country has their finger on a trigger at all times: they can call in the loan and bankrupt the debtor at will.

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