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Big Tech is borrowing like never before

startupfortune.com

21–30 of 56 posts

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you’re profitable and can pay it back, it’s better than equity. If there’s any financial risk then it may not be worth the potential loss of control.

Would depend on the yield on debt vs yield on equity (factoring in earnings growth rate) If your company trades at 100x sales you should probably sell the equity.

It’s not just yield. Its debt gets paid first. And if you miss the interest payments the debt holders get the company.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#22

Is it me? I feel like we are entering an era where it has become possible for one of the big companies to fail.

I don't think the big companies will fail, but their stock prices could dramatically drop. I think newer smaller companies like OpenAI and Anthropic could easily fail, as well as a bunch of other AI start ups. Altogether it could make for some difficult financial times like in 2000 and 2008

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#23
post #4

Smart to borrow when money is cheap if you think you can do something more profitable with it.

But money has not been cheap for a while now so this is interesting. And yes, if you can do something more profitable with it, borrowing is always smart no, regardless of how cheap it is?

It’s a matter of perspective. Cheaper to borrow today than in the years 1969-2005…

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Financially? Sure. Politically? Not a chance, they'll get bailed out or partially nationalized. Frontier labs will be considered essential to national security, Microsoft is basically a public utility at this point, Facebook is too important for the spread of propaganda (although this one has less of a case/justification for a government bailout), Amazon (via AWS) runs massive parts of the federal gov (along with Azu…

Is Google really a critical dependency for android? I've installed Lineage OS before which worked.

Yes, because of play services. Eventually the world would adapt, but the immediate effect is that nearly every major commercial app that is increasingly requiring play integrity, play services will stop working. Push notifications will also break, as will the payment network. Google Pay, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay etc are essentially shadow banks now.

The real impact of Google going dark though is less Android and more ads. Google fails, the revenue pipeline for 2 million + websites goes to zero overnight, and millions of digial businesses and agencies will go bankrupt within weeks. It would completely collapse the business model of the modern internet.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#25
post #3

Full title: "Big Tech is borrowing like never before and the Fed just made that a lot more expensive"

Which is strange, because they did not in fact implement a big (or any) increase in the federal funds rate.

I also notice the article is "tagged" as if its title had been split on lowercase 's'es:

> Big tech i

> borrowing like never before and the fed ju

> T made that a lot more expen

This level of attention to detail does not exactly inspire confidence.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#26
The NVIDIA case is such a strange example to use to make the argument the author is trying to make.

NVIDIA raised $25 billion and had $85 billion in orders. Because of the demand, it was able to upsize its offering and issue bonds in maturities ranging from 2 to 30 years at quite favorable interest rates. The amount raised is a quarter of a year's free cash flow and the spread tightened during the book building process, so bond investors obviously aren't on the same page as the author.

You really can't make a bearish argument about the amounts being raised without putting the numbers in perspective. Yes, the issuances are big, but the equity and cashflows are also big, so the amounts being raised in the bond market don't really align to the author's skepticism when it comes to NVIDIA, Google, Meta.

The author would have a stronger case with Oracle but that alone wouldn't support the "Big Tech" story line.

Edit: $25 billion is a quarter's worth of free cash flow for NVIDIA, not half a year's as I originally stated.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#28
post #25
post #3

Full title: "Big Tech is borrowing like never before and the Fed just made that a lot more expensive"

Which is strange, because they did not in fact implement a big (or any) increase in the federal funds rate. I also notice the article is "tagged" as if its title had been split on lowercase 's'es: > Big tech i > borrowing like never before and the fed ju > T made that a lot more expen This level of attention to detail does not exactly inspire confidence.

And they are expanding money supply like crazy and not too long ago ended quantitative tightening.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Financially? Sure. Politically? Not a chance, they'll get bailed out or partially nationalized. Frontier labs will be considered essential to national security, Microsoft is basically a public utility at this point, Facebook is too important for the spread of propaganda (although this one has less of a case/justification for a government bailout), Amazon (via AWS) runs massive parts of the federal gov (along with Azu…

Is Google really a critical dependency for android? I've installed Lineage OS before which worked.

And you did not notice how many things require Google Apps/Play Integrity? Heck, most people don't even know how to install apps without the Play Store.

Re: Big Tech is borrowing like never before

#30
post #4

Smart to borrow when money is cheap if you think you can do something more profitable with it.

But money has not been cheap for a while now so this is interesting. And yes, if you can do something more profitable with it, borrowing is always smart no, regardless of how cheap it is?

The current tech frontier requires capital expenditures on a scale they've been systematically avoiding for 25 years because pure software was easy money. The interesting thing is how they're all trading paper amongst themselves with made up valuations and what blows up when the music stops.
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