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Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

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Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#22

"Hey, don't invest too much in Spacex or Anthropic. We're planning an IPO too."

This is the real reason. I don't think equity market has enough capital to support three companies of this size.

SpaceX IPO is slated to be $75-80bn — the market has size for that. We also have seen robust options and finance markets for AAPL and NVDA over the last years that make the broader ecosystem not overly worrying in my armchair opinion.

I’m not clear how much crossover demand there is between SX and Anthropic/oAI — that seems like the more interesting question. I’m guessing if we had Anthropic/oAI launching at the same time we’d see some pretty interesting capital dynamics.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#24
post #15

Growing worry I have are the dozens of newly minted corporate elites that will continue to wreck havoc on the tech industry mandating their golden paths while America still lacks medicare for all, college for all, and universal childcare. If you think Sam Altman is bad for the industry, imagine what 200 of him will be like!

We had universal childcare until we converted single-income families into dual-income families in order to make the boomers who they bought houses from rich.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#25
post #15

Growing worry I have are the dozens of newly minted corporate elites that will continue to wreck havoc on the tech industry mandating their golden paths while America still lacks medicare for all, college for all, and universal childcare. If you think Sam Altman is bad for the industry, imagine what 200 of him will be like!

I was wondering about this the other week.

Is there a chart, somewhere, like a family tree, of what the Apple and Microsoft stock "ordinary millionaires" went on to do?

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#27

> We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. Presumably those things were harder as a charity/non-profit.

They need to financially engineer a good looking quarter beforehand.

Perhaps Larry Ellison can cut them a nice quid pro quo for a few months to make OpenAI look profitable (like the SpaceX/Anthropic deal), although that's probably unlikely given the debt Oracle is taking on to build it's infra.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#28

> We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. Presumably those things were harder as a charity/non-profit.

Like financial reporting and "transparency" that's required for public companies.
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