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Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

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Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#21

Post by sixtram »

pixel_popping wrote: post #11

I agree with all of it, and I think author did a really good job at actually saying what's true, it's almost like developers don't want to hear it. I feel that OP has reach that point because he went out of the basic tooling like Claude Code (at least in its default state) and embrace multi-model, automatic reviewing, fuse, loops and so-on, when it's done right, well, failure rate to solve issues is Many people will…

Just 300 a day? That's only one ticket every 1.5 minutes. I hope in a year we can fix an issue under 30 seconds with ZERO supervision.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#22

Post by avaer »

omblivion wrote: post #2

I strongly agree with the author replies. I cannot grasp the reasonment of those who underestimate the power of these tools and their growing potential. We should remember that the outside world care about things that work, not about how good they are inside sadly.

The outside world doesn't even care that things work, they care that it looks like it works long enough. Investors don't care that it's snake oil, as long as they're not left holding the bag.

AI is really good at making things that look like they work.

This is a steelman of your argument.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#23

Post by noodletheworld »

I don't entirely disagree, but as with many other posts on this topic…

> They will come for finance, biology, law, marketing, all knowledge work. That's their stated goal and they're already teasing it with "ChatGPT for Health" and similar launches. They're working on "harnesses" for other fields, it's just a matter of time before we have "Claude Finance Analyst" or something.

…

> Beg to disagree. The models will learn good engineering principles at some point.

…

> Stop and think, don't try to predict the future using (bad) past examples.

Don't try to prediction the future based on the past.

Also, here is my doomsday prediction.

Thats kind of ironic.

Heres a more thoughtful take: everything is an s curve.

Things start out fast, then they slow down.

It happens in learning, in tech, in literally everything.

The question (unanswered) is where we are in that curve.

Will they get better? Yes.

A lot better? A bit better? /shrug

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#24

Post by pixel_popping »

sixtram wrote: post #21
pixel_popping wrote: post #11

I agree with all of it, and I think author did a really good job at actually saying what's true, it's almost like developers don't want to hear it. I feel that OP has reach that point because he went out of the basic tooling like Claude Code (at least in its default state) and embrace multi-model, automatic reviewing, fuse, loops and so-on, when it's done right, well, failure rate to solve issues is Many people will…

Just 300 a day? That's only one ticket every 1.5 minutes. I hope in a year we can fix an issue under 30 seconds with ZERO supervision.

We will, most work can be parallelized, the same way as developers are able to work together on large codebases, tools can as well.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#26

Post by lwhi »

genezeta wrote: post #3

I've had quite a few conversations and read many thoughts on the subject of job security in the software industry through the years. New technologies, various crisis and crashes, just age , incoming "hordes" of less prepared developers, or whatever. If I had to highlight the one thing all those conversations had in common it would be precisely this: I thought that having this knowledge would set me apart And it never…

I think in the future, those who succeed will be equivalent to wayfinders.

People who _can_ see the wood for the trees, and are able to understand multiple (sometimes conflicting) requirements and work out a way through that solves the problems that arise, for all involved parties.

An understanding of domain, the ability to communicate effectively and a mind that can think laterally, will all be vital.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#27

Post by catmanjan »

lukan wrote: post #20
genezeta wrote: post #3

I've had quite a few conversations and read many thoughts on the subject of job security in the software industry through the years. New technologies, various crisis and crashes, just age , incoming "hordes" of less prepared developers, or whatever. If I had to highlight the one thing all those conversations had in common it would be precisely this: I thought that having this knowledge would set me apart And it never…

Some knowledge does set you apart - the ability to ship things, people pay for. Not producing holy code in the academic best language.

Ability can't really be compared to knowledge... e.g. you might lose the ability to play the piano, yet retain the knowledge about how to

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#28

Post by ryanackley »

AI maximalism is making a lot of assumptions that I think are not a given

* The curve of AI improvement will continue at the current pace

* AI companies will have the capital continue to expand infrastructure

* there will be some kind of functioning economy if all knowledge workers are replaced

There are strong headwinds to all three of these.

Hey it may come to pass but it’s very speculative at this point. I see a lot of tech people simply overlaying the progress curve of previous tech booms which is reductive.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#30

Post by lelanthran »

rowbin wrote: post #4

I agree, his takes should not be dismissed lightly. I'm not sure about "demand is fixed" though. I feel like software demand has been declared saturated at least a few times.

> I feel like software demand has been declared saturated at least a few times.

It's never been declared saturated, with one exception in the six months following the dot-com crash.

I've been in the industry since the mid-90s. I have not seen automation with the potential to automate away everything for the average office worker.

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