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LLMs are not the black box you were promised

jay.ai

21–30 of 48 posts

Re: LLMs are not the black box you were promised

#21

"lack of metacognitive insight" is interesting, because I have observed people acting this way too. I have even observed it in myself

I think that lack is overwhelmingly the norm in humans. I can't tell you which neurons fired in my brain when I add two small integers.

Re: LLMs are not the black box you were promised

#22

"lack of metacognitive insight" is interesting, because I have observed people acting this way too. I have even observed it in myself

I think that lack is overwhelmingly the norm in humans. I can't tell you which neurons fired in my brain when I add two small integers.

As trivial as that example is, it boggles my mind just how large the scale gets of things about me I do not fully understand or cannot explain. It feels different than losing track of what I just did, because a memory of it seemingly never existed to lose in the first place. For example, as much as I can try to reason about executive dysfunction, I cannot seem to understand the real actual equation that results in me being willing or not to do something. It just feels like my own brain disagrees with me, and that's so frustrating, and I've been trying to rationalize it for years but in the end I just do not know, and likely cannot know.

It's not even trivial to identify what it is exactly I'm not aware of. There's just some pattern I don't like, and the factors that influence it are a mystery. I've discovered some things over the years that seem to correlate with it, but nothing that truly explains or remedies it.

Re: LLMs are not the black box you were promised

#23

If you asked me last year(2025) I would have still said LLMs are a silly toy. As of Jan 2026 I have come to accept that LLMs are at least part of the puzzle of how intelligence works. They are at this point better than the majority of humans at various intellectual tasks. It may not be or ever be a 1:1 but good enough ran the world already before llms. There is not even a formal definition of what intelligence is so…

They are better than humans at tasks that require information recall and application to specific task.

For example, front end web app layout and basic functionality. Anyone can make a website with interactive buttons with ease now, where as before, you had to go look up examples, try stuff, figure out why its not working, e.t.c.

But in terms of organization and higher level tasks, like for example making front end that is clean, robust, easily extensible, and doesn't break, LLMs require almost as much prompting to do this as it takes to actually write the code.

Re: LLMs are not the black box you were promised

#24
It's nice to see sparse interpretable LLMs being made.

This is similar to factor rotation in factor analysis (or PCA). A varimax rotation, for example, can produce an equivalent factor analysis with sparse loadings, and which is generally more interpretable. Fortunately for us the world is not just a complete mess, and sparse loadings can often be found. There seem to be "natural" concepts that we have observed rather than invented.

(Many examples in other simple machine learning methods too, I am sure.)

Re: LLMs are not the black box you were promised

#26

> Ask it "what is the capital of the state containing Dallas" and you can observe, in order: > the Dallas feature goes active, > which causes the Texas feature to light up, > which then causes Austin to light up. > It seems fairly clear that this is tracing semantic relationships between high-level concepts — and in doing so, performing a kind of pseudo-symbolic inference, similar to what some philosophers would desc…

Only some animals can perform a reasoning chain that long. Thus higher reasoning.

Re: LLMs are not the black box you were promised

#28

If you asked me last year(2025) I would have still said LLMs are a silly toy. As of Jan 2026 I have come to accept that LLMs are at least part of the puzzle of how intelligence works. They are at this point better than the majority of humans at various intellectual tasks. It may not be or ever be a 1:1 but good enough ran the world already before llms. There is not even a formal definition of what intelligence is so…

They’re the language part of the puzzle, which seems to require some basic world modeling but it can’t make novel models unless there’s an example in its training data.

I think engineering and mathematical thought requires spatial reasoning, when I model problems I see them as 3D shapes. Like the economy is a series of tubes that money flows through and collect in buckets, programming state is little boxes that hold values, chemical interactions are like keys that fit into locks.

I don’t think LLMs can build models like that, but because it has so much memorized and there usually isn’t a need for a novel model custom fit for a problem, it can fake it by imitation.

Re: LLMs are not the black box you were promised

#29

If you asked me last year(2025) I would have still said LLMs are a silly toy. As of Jan 2026 I have come to accept that LLMs are at least part of the puzzle of how intelligence works. They are at this point better than the majority of humans at various intellectual tasks. It may not be or ever be a 1:1 but good enough ran the world already before llms. There is not even a formal definition of what intelligence is so…

They are mostly "faster" than the majority of humans. They are rarely better than experienced and talented humans at the majority of tasks they are able to do. They are better on both scales on a small thin slice of work tasks.

Re: LLMs are not the black box you were promised

#30

"lack of metacognitive insight" is interesting, because I have observed people acting this way too. I have even observed it in myself

What if your theory about how you reason turns out to be different from how you actually reason?

Well, I'll probably never know if so. In any case, my theory of reasoning works well enough to serve its purpose, I'd think.
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