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Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

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Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#21
post #11

"Recursive self-improvement" is in the same league as "perpetual motion". What would be a way to recursively self-improve algorithms for matrix multiplication (foundations of machine learning and inference)?

Presumably there's more efficient hardware foundations to perform these efficiently, and potential at the various abstraction layers for more efficiency. Obviously this is not unbounded - simple things would seem to have a physical limit to the potential improvement.

But if you think of the optimization space: different physical representations, different approaches (photo, quantum, etc), more parallelism - there's undoubtedly a lot of headroom even on the matrix multiplication side. I would imagine there's a lot left on the table when it comes to the abstractions we've built. Infinite? No, but lots of potential.

And what does a machine with a few orders of magnitude more power come up with? I'm not readily able to predict what something like that could create (maybe it's tapped out, but I doubt it).

It seems to come down to an article of faith (as referenced in the article) that there's a lot more potential to be extracted in our current exploitation paths. Which I think is probably reasonable.

Heck, even if a theoretical machine tops out at 3-5 orders of magnitude faster/more complex, I'm sure that could do some amazing things that look like magic to us.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#22

In the big 2026, everything certain people worried about with superintelligence came to fruition and they were vindicated. The people closest to ASI are indicating recursive self improvement is imminent, the smartest engineers in the labs themselves are autonomously using agents to develop and improve the models. The arms race is evident. NVDA is the world's most valuable company determined by the worlds' collective…

[flagged]

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#23
>Is superintelligence just a memetic hazard? [Overblown fear by smart people who are too easily convinced.]

Well we can do the wager. If it's a nothingburger, then the worst case scenario is that we approached AI too cautiously. (Ha. What are the odds of that?)

If it's not a nothingburger, then we all die, unless the whole world agrees on the correct course of action in advance and coordinates perfectly. Hmm.

Well, maybe we don't all die, but the world is irreversibly transformed into something incomprehensible and repulsive.

Although, I don't really think we needed AI's help for that one. We should probably figure out how to align ourselves before we try to preach to the next species. I'm not exactly holding my breath though :/

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#24
"So I'd like to engage AI risk from both these perspectives. I think the arguments for superintelligence are somewhat silly, and full of unwarranted assumptions.

But even if you find them persuasive, there is something unpleasant about AI alarmism as a cultural phenomenon that should make us hesitate to take it seriously.

First, let me engage the substance. Here are the arguments I have against Bostrom-style superintelligence as a risk to humanity"

--

The framing here seems to me to equate "AI risk" and "AI alarmism" with buying in to belief in "Bostom-style superintellgence".

I'm not sure if the author meant to put anyone who is alarmed by developments in what we're calling "AI" into the same bucket as "AI obsessives want to make it into a programming problem, by designing a God-like machine", but I think this conflation is unfair and, frankly, dangerous.

I don't know what superintelligence is. I don't even know what intelligence is. And I don't really know what either "artificial" or "general" mean either when talking about "AGI".

You can believe, as I do, that these things can be, and will inevitably will be if we don't radically correct course, used to do very bad things independent and short of being "God-like". When you have systems which can hypothesize, synthesize, and test thousands if not millions of potential infectious agents in bulk [0], and can then order the ingredients for you from dodgy websites via some "claw", and then when you put these systems under the unsupervised control of millions of people with varying levels of stability and altruism, something extremely bad is exceedingly likely to happen.

I understand that 2016 is ages ago and things change, but I came away from the article with the impression that if I'm worried about AI risk then I'm a clown like the three pictured in the "Outside Argument" section (you're a Google-Glass-wearing cringe nerd if you're alarmed). Maybe that's my fault and I'm not smart enough to understand the actual point of the article. If I have misinterpreted, I welcome the correction.

[0] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53759-4

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#25
> The AI is all-powerful and gives you what you ask for, but interprets everything in a super-literal way that you end up regretting.

I like imagining similar discourse when a more basic tool was invented: "A hammer is like a genie, it's all powerful, but, when you hit something with it, it interprets that super-literally, and it hits it."

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#26
post #15
post #2

> If you encountered a cheetah in pre-industrial times (and survived the meeting), you might think it was impossible for anything to go faster. Fun fact, there is no historical evidence of an adult human ever dying from a cheetah attack. They are naturally shy, and a lot smaller than you may realize.

There's a story about some Kenyans outrunning a Cheetah in 6km. It had been killing their livestock, so they decided to go after it. Cheetahs are very fast, but humans have way more endurance.

I think the term is persistence hunting (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persistence_hunting). There was an intriguing blog post years ago (which sadly I can’t find) about how terrifying a fictional portrayal of persistence hunting would be- grinding down prey through exhaustion, thinking you’ve escaped but being slowly tracked down.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#27
post #15
post #2

> If you encountered a cheetah in pre-industrial times (and survived the meeting), you might think it was impossible for anything to go faster. Fun fact, there is no historical evidence of an adult human ever dying from a cheetah attack. They are naturally shy, and a lot smaller than you may realize.

There's a story about some Kenyans outrunning a Cheetah in 6km. It had been killing their livestock, so they decided to go after it. Cheetahs are very fast, but humans have way more endurance.

> Cheetahs are very fast, but humans have way more endurance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man_versus_Horse_Marathon

> The Man versus Horse Marathon is an annual race over 21 miles (34 km), where runners compete against riders on horseback through a mix of road, trail and mountainous terrain. The race, which is a shorter distance than an official marathon road race, takes place in the Welsh town of Llanwrtyd Wells every June.

> ...

> The event started in 1980, when local landlord Gordon Green overheard a discussion between two men in his pub, the Neuadd Arms. One man suggested that over a significant distance across country, man was equal to any horse. Green decided that the challenge should be tested in full public view, and organised the first event.

While the horses had a string of wins from 2008 to 2019, 2022 to 2025 had three wins for humans and one win for a horse.

The next race event: https://www.green-events.co.uk/man-v-horse

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#28

AI Superintelligence doesn't scare me for the same reasons "grey goo" doesn't scare me. We are awash in self-replicating machines. The biosphere is already a grey-goo apocalypse. Any new competitors have a serious moat to cross to out compete any existing self-replicators. We are awash in intelligent agents. Our society (and meta society) is full of superhuman agents already. There is a huge moat for any new intellig…

I'm old enough to remember when grey goo and nanotechnology was the apocalyptic scenario du jour for a short time after some guy at MIT wrote a book, and because he was at MIT people took it seriously even though it was ridiculous. If someone at the University of Kentucky or Kansas had written such a book, it would have been ignored. When prestige manages to align with bad ideas, it's pretty awful, and it can derail the entire civilization for a while.

I was like... nanotechnology and grey goo already exist. It's called biology. The scenarios I was reading were silly. They violated conservation laws and laws of physics. But people were believing it and calling for limits on nanotechnology research.

I remember arguing with smart people on this, and that was when I started to realize that there's two kinds of dumb. I had the same realization later when I argued with an incredibly intelligent guy who was absolutely convinced the moon landings didn't happen. See, there's dumb-dumb and smart-dumb, and the people who thought grey goo would eat Earth or that the Apollo landings were a hoax were the latter. Smart-dumb is high-IQ rationalization of ultimately irrational and absurd ideas, and the smarter you are the more effectively you can do this.

I've met some really shockingly brilliant fools over the years who believe in all kinds of outlandish conspiracy theories, absolute literalist religious fundamentalism, idiotic political doctrines that directly contradict basic logic and all of lived human history, and so on. All of them can engage in sophisticated airtight rationalizations.

I sometimes wonder if this is one of the evolutionary forces constraining intelligence. In my experience, smarter people are somewhat more likely to believe highly sophisticated and complex stupid things, and they are much better at convincing others of these things. That's probably more dangerous to them, their family and friends, and the species than dumb people believing simple silly things that are easily debunked.

On AI...

Is AI potentially dangerous? Very. It's already dangerous in a number of ways. The biggest right now is probably mass production of personalized propaganda, mass surveillance, and mass manipulation. There's also the potential that bad actors could use it to accelerate their ability to make things like garage WMDs (biotech, chemical weapons, etc.). None of this requires hard take-off superintelligence. It's just inherent risks to a powerful technology.

These are not entirely new risks. They were already present in the Internet and computing. AI just raises them to a higher level.

The extreme hard take-off stuff is silly, and it actually distracts us from talking about the much more realistic dangers and coming up with reasonable solutions that don't also throw away the huge benefits of these technologies.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#29
post #7

The main problem of the hard takeoff theory is not the abstract nature of the scenario but rather the fact that it makes the same mistake as the unconstrained optimization paradigm, it takes intelligence to be an unconstrained optimization process. In fact, if we consider the strongest version of the safety argument for AI, namely one in which the danger is not coming from robots but rather from a disembodied AI cont…

If anything the hard takeoff theory is too conservative. It turns out you don't need self-improvement to get to superintelligence. You just need a ridiculous amount of money. Where can you get a ridiculous amount of money? The market will give it to you because FOMO. AI is easier than people 10 years ago thought it would be. It's also easier to align than people feared it would be. It's the humans using the AI that a…

Eh, I have a feeling the game hasn't played out yet when it comes to AI control.

If and when the feedback loop on self improvement becomes more efficient and the window on training significantly narrows then things getting out of control rather quickly seems likely. Especially that it's likely we'll have a metric fuckton of compute by that point.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#30

AI Superintelligence doesn't scare me for the same reasons "grey goo" doesn't scare me. We are awash in self-replicating machines. The biosphere is already a grey-goo apocalypse. Any new competitors have a serious moat to cross to out compete any existing self-replicators. We are awash in intelligent agents. Our society (and meta society) is full of superhuman agents already. There is a huge moat for any new intellig…

I have the same feeling. I'm not worried about superintelligent AI because we are only training them on human level intelligence. By what mechanism does our current AI technology take the leap to technologies that humans have never conceived of?

Our current AI is more like a fancy Google search than some kind of machine God.

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