Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Naphtha shortages in Japan

nippon.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 145 posts

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#21

Post by alephnerd »

nogajun wrote: post #9

As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production, leading to a shortage of daily necessities. The fact that Calbee’s snack packaging has turned monochrome is a direct consequence of this. The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision. What is even more alarming is that more tha…

> As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production

Not exactly. Japan only produces around 40% of it's naphtha domestically, with 40% from the Middle East and the other 20% from other sources. Much of the pain arose from supply shock for the 40% sources from the ME.

That said, much of the pain around naphata is transitional, as most Japanese imports of naphtha have now shifted away from the Middle East to Algeria, the US, and India [0][1].

Mind you, this is eating significantly into margins, but it is survivable as this isn't Japan's first black swan event of similar calibre - the late 2000s and early 2010s oil price shock occurred during a much more difficult macro environment for Japan, and at least according to ONG analysts [2] (behind login, as most actionable commodities news is) Japan has the reserves needed for around a year of production assuming Japan didn't begin shifting sourcing, which it did.

I'd recommend reading Overseas Energy Investment of Korea and Japan: How did Two East Asian Resources-Rare Industrial Giants Respond to Energy Security Challenges by Oh Seong-ik [3] to learn more about the Korean and Japanese energy security policy - both are using the same methodology, strategies, and contract structures, and despite public rhetoric, a large portion of younger Koreans targeting the Blue House and/or high finance still try to attend Waseda for their undergrad if SKY, KAIST, or Ewha doesn't work out.

[0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/jap...

[1] - https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-marke...

[2] - https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/280064...

[3] - https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-0285-9

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#22

Post by no-name-here »

BoorishBears wrote: post #13
guessmyname wrote: post #2

As someone who grew up eating Calbee snacks, I think they’ll be fine. People from my generation aren’t buying Calbee because the bag is colorful. They’re buying it because it’s Calbee and they already know what they’re getting. The packaging could be black and white and I’d still recognize it instantly. The only people I could see being briefly confused are younger consumers. Japanese packaging tends to be very color…

[flagged]

From the official guidelines https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

> Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that".

May be good to edit your comment to remove the first sentence.

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#23

Post by pibaker »

nogajun wrote: post #9

As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production, leading to a shortage of daily necessities. The fact that Calbee’s snack packaging has turned monochrome is a direct consequence of this. The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision. What is even more alarming is that more tha…

> The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision.

Do you have a citation for this? This sounds insane. I can't even think of any good faith motivation for doing this, other than to cover up the shortage and to keep the public pacified.

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#25

Post by trillic »

gryson wrote: post #8
armada651 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since very few types of plastic are actually recyclable most of it ends up being burned despite being separately collected, so I don't think you can simply discount the recycled plastic from the plastic waste being produced.

Japan burns about half of its collected plastic via thermal recycling (recovering the energy) and recycles about a third into new products. The key point is that Japan recycles 85% of its plastic waste, which is excellent compared with a country like the US that recycles about 10%. And, the per capita plastic use in the US is far more than in Japan. This whole point pops up on the internet so frequently because touri…

Burning trash is recycling now?

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#26

Post by no-name-here »

gryson wrote: post #5
johnea wrote: post #3

After studying Japanese language and culture for the last 15 years, and spending about 6 months there in total, I would say they have a massive over-packaging problem in general. I've never seen a place throw away more plastics than in Japan. If the current oil situation forces a reworking of this system, I'd say all in all, that's an upside.

Japan is nowhere near the worst for plastic waste per capita, and it has very high recycling rates. Rely more on statistics and less on personal observation.

Even better to provide a source for each statistic.

Japan has about half the plastic waste rate, yes [1].

However, the top recycling search result claims Japan only has a 19% recycling rate compared to the US’s 24% [2], but you might have been referring to a specific recycling type?

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/plastic-waste-per-capita

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recycling_rates_by_country

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#27

Post by helterskelter »

johnea wrote: post #3

After studying Japanese language and culture for the last 15 years, and spending about 6 months there in total, I would say they have a massive over-packaging problem in general. I've never seen a place throw away more plastics than in Japan. If the current oil situation forces a reworking of this system, I'd say all in all, that's an upside.

Nippon packaging

So dressed like a lover

Frigid winter day

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#28

Post by pibaker »

jnakano89 wrote: post #15

Buried near the end: Nisshin Seifun Welna stopped printing cooking time on their spaghetti packaging tape. There's a Japanese consumer somewhere squinting at the package trying to remember if it was 8 mins or 10 mins. This is what "globalized supply chain" looks like up close.

What is the alternative to imported fossil fuel product for a country like Japan?

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#29

Post by Arn_Thor »

pibaker wrote: post #28
jnakano89 wrote: post #15

Buried near the end: Nisshin Seifun Welna stopped printing cooking time on their spaghetti packaging tape. There's a Japanese consumer somewhere squinting at the package trying to remember if it was 8 mins or 10 mins. This is what "globalized supply chain" looks like up close.

What is the alternative to imported fossil fuel product for a country like Japan?

If they (and the rest of us for that matter) weren't burning so much of it, there'd be more left over for other uses.

(with the obvious caveat that less demand means less production, which would mean there wouldn't be a lot of surplus. But in a world where we don't burn so much oil, it probably wouldn't be worth either party closing the Strait anyway...)

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#30

Post by gryson »

trillic wrote: post #25
gryson wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan burns about half of its collected plastic via thermal recycling (recovering the energy) and recycles about a third into new products. The key point is that Japan recycles 85% of its plastic waste, which is excellent compared with a country like the US that recycles about 10%. And, the per capita plastic use in the US is far more than in Japan. This whole point pops up on the internet so frequently because touri…

Burning trash is recycling now?

Yes, if the resulting energy is captured:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waste-to-energy

Post reply on HN