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Canada in Technical Recession

cbc.ca

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Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#21

Post by transdev12 »

usrnm wrote: post #19

I have zero knowledge of economics, so maybe someone can help me with the question that's been bothering me lately. Why is being in recession or not decided based on figures not adjusted for inflation? I mean, a large part of Europe is technically not in recession, but growing at a rate that's much lower than inflation is no real growth at all, is it? How does it work?

Real GDP is adjusted for inflation, nominal GDP is not.

Being in recession is typically defined as negative gdp growth.

So to answer your question, being in recession does account for inflation.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#22

Post by izend »

There is very little opportunity right now in Canada so I am not surprised the GDP growth has come in negative. It will probably be positive next quarter due to the oil price spike.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#23

Post by pigeons »

bawolff wrote: post #12
Pet_Ant wrote: post #2

Considering all of Trump’s shenanigans it’s impressive it’s just that. With Hormuz, tariffs, and America first, this is the equivalent of a fender dent after spinning out on black ice.

Given canada has so much oil,is the hormuz situation really a net negative for canada ecconomically? Like obviously its terrible in general, but id expect higher oil prices to help starve off a recesion.

Do Canadian industries use a large percentage of petroleum products refined from Canadian oil or is it refined from blends produced in other areas of the world, such as the United States and the Middle East?

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#24

Post by slopinthebag »

Canada has been in a recession for years if you consider per-capita GDP. But the government has been importing millions of people to artificially boost GDP, and as soon as they started decreasing immigration targets GDP dropped.

But Canadians have been feeling the squeeze for years. Especially the youth, who have a ~15% unemployment rate and are the unhappiest demographic of all developed nations :(

Also kind of weird how little coverage this is getting in national media. It's not on the front page of CBC.com, it's tucked away in a sidebar on a subpage.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#25

Post by slopinthebag »

bawolff wrote: post #15

I wonder to what extent the clamp down on immigration is related to this. Feels like a factor that gets lost with everyone blaming trump (which dont get me wrong, he deserves)

Yes, Canada has been in a recession for years if you used per-capita GDP, high immigration masked this.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#26

Post by bryanlarsen »

slopinthebag wrote: post #25
bawolff wrote: post #15

I wonder to what extent the clamp down on immigration is related to this. Feels like a factor that gets lost with everyone blaming trump (which dont get me wrong, he deserves)

Yes, Canada has been in a recession for years if you used per-capita GDP, high immigration masked this.

And this quarter is the opposite. per-capita GDP growth was positive 0.2%.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#27

Post by rayiner »

alephnerd wrote: post #10
rayiner wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s funny is that Q1 per capita GDP growth in the U.S. was about 1.4% annualized (within the normal range) while Canada was only at 0.1%. Trump is the bull in the china shop but it’s not his China he’s breaking.

Much of the capex that was invested thanks to IRA and CHIPS subsidizes is starting to go operational and trade barriers enacted during both Trump 1 and the Biden admin remain in action, so it wasn't that surprising that much of the output that was unlocked from that era is continuing. That said, tariffs and trade barriers did help. Heck, I'm a Dem but even I argued that we needed to build trade and non-trade barriers…

I think Biden was an industrial policy guy at heart and it’s a shame he was so old by the time he got a chance to execute on his ideas.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#29

Post by dimes »

usrnm wrote: post #19

I have zero knowledge of economics, so maybe someone can help me with the question that's been bothering me lately. Why is being in recession or not decided based on figures not adjusted for inflation? I mean, a large part of Europe is technically not in recession, but growing at a rate that's much lower than inflation is no real growth at all, is it? How does it work?

“Real GDP” accounts for inflation already.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#30

Post by bryanlarsen »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #3
Pet_Ant wrote: post #2

Considering all of Trump’s shenanigans it’s impressive it’s just that. With Hormuz, tariffs, and America first, this is the equivalent of a fender dent after spinning out on black ice.

Well population grew significantly so it’s a bigger decline in per capita terms. Notably this was even though AI systems got decent enough, supposedly, to do simple tasks and answer simple questions correctly.

That's not true. The population shrunk in the first quarter, so the GDP actually grew by 0.2% on a per capita basis.
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