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El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

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Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#21

Post by caminante »

AngryData wrote: post #6
xvxvx wrote: post #3

There’s been so much climate alarmism since Al Gore decided to pivot to ‘hero of humanity’ that it barely registers for me now. I still have frozen rice and beans from covid. Hope they’re still good.

Is it really alarmism when anyone alive for the last 30 years can clearly tell weather patterns are changing? To me this is like claiming someone in 1901 was an alarmist for talking about how dumping chemicals into our waterways was destroying them and dumping chemicals out the back of plants was creating polluted toxic ground as they observe increasing numbers of dead fish. And they were right, there are endless num…

You really should revisit the absurd claims Gore was promoting that didn't age well like the north pole melting in 5 years (2014).

IMHO, the toxic chemicals comparison doesn't work.

For climate change, you have alternatives to raise people's quality of life more effectively and saying that you must prioritize fighting climate change over ... better healthcare, sanitation (avoidance of toxic chemicals!*), nutrition, workforce development, etc. is not really an easy sell because the other paths yield better ROI.

*Edit*

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#22

Post by defrost »

caminante wrote: post #21
AngryData wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it really alarmism when anyone alive for the last 30 years can clearly tell weather patterns are changing? To me this is like claiming someone in 1901 was an alarmist for talking about how dumping chemicals into our waterways was destroying them and dumping chemicals out the back of plants was creating polluted toxic ground as they observe increasing numbers of dead fish. And they were right, there are endless num…

You really should revisit the absurd claims Gore was promoting that didn't age well like the north pole melting in 5 years (2014). IMHO, the toxic chemicals comparison doesn't work. For climate change, you have alternatives to raise people's quality of life more effectively and saying that you must prioritize fighting climate change over ... better healthcare, sanitation (avoidance of toxic chemicals!*), nutrition, w…

> You really should revisit the absurd claims Gore was promoting

Why? Absurd claims are absurd claims - I have zero doubts about the AGW outline and majority of case and data put forward in the IPCC papers despite never having seen the Gore film nor even living in the USofA.

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#23

Post by AnimalMuppet »

f33d5173 wrote: post #20
zaps wrote: post #18

Stupid question: how do they know with such fidelity what the water temp was in the Pacific in 1877? It’s not like solid land where there are strata and whatnot that leave a geological record? Or is it?

It wasn't that long ago. Maybe someone stuck a thermometer down there.

Over enough of the Pacific to be able to say this with confidence? They might have... but I doubt it.

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#24

Post by caminante »

defrost wrote: post #22
caminante wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really should revisit the absurd claims Gore was promoting that didn't age well like the north pole melting in 5 years (2014). IMHO, the toxic chemicals comparison doesn't work. For climate change, you have alternatives to raise people's quality of life more effectively and saying that you must prioritize fighting climate change over ... better healthcare, sanitation (avoidance of toxic chemicals!*), nutrition, w…

> You really should revisit the absurd claims Gore was promoting Why? Absurd claims are absurd claims - I have zero doubts about the AGW outline and majority of case and data put forward in the IPCC papers despite never having seen the Gore film nor even living in the USofA.

LOL!

How do you reconcile arguing it isn't "alarmism" and acknowledging the claims are "absurd"?

You're definitely trying to have it both ways on the issue of whether people have been guilty of promoting alarmism.

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#25

Post by delichon »

defrost wrote: post #22
caminante wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really should revisit the absurd claims Gore was promoting that didn't age well like the north pole melting in 5 years (2014). IMHO, the toxic chemicals comparison doesn't work. For climate change, you have alternatives to raise people's quality of life more effectively and saying that you must prioritize fighting climate change over ... better healthcare, sanitation (avoidance of toxic chemicals!*), nutrition, w…

> You really should revisit the absurd claims Gore was promoting Why? Absurd claims are absurd claims - I have zero doubts about the AGW outline and majority of case and data put forward in the IPCC papers despite never having seen the Gore film nor even living in the USofA.

> I have zero doubts

That is a red flag, regarding almost anything. It's a blind spot.

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#26

Post by ssl-3 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #23
f33d5173 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't that long ago. Maybe someone stuck a thermometer down there.

Over enough of the Pacific to be able to say this with confidence? They might have... but I doubt it.

Oceanic science has has been happening for quite a long time.

You may wish to have a look at this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_and_American_voyages_...

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#27

Post by psb5 »

defrost wrote: post #16
psb5 wrote: post #8

Just imagine how much energy is required to produce that band at planetary scale.

I'm imagining it as incremental amounts of a tiny fraction of the amount of energy that arrives daily on the planet from the sun. I'm guessing the amount of energy is less of an issue than the cascading transformation chains the daily solar energy allocation bounces through, less of an issue than increasing insulation factors in the atmosphere, etc. Would that be about right by your reckoning?

Well I was just thinking about how much time and energy it takes to warm a large building. This system is warming things up for thousands of miles. It probably makes what the entire grid consumes look microscopic.

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#28

Post by defrost »

psb5 wrote: post #27
defrost wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm imagining it as incremental amounts of a tiny fraction of the amount of energy that arrives daily on the planet from the sun. I'm guessing the amount of energy is less of an issue than the cascading transformation chains the daily solar energy allocation bounces through, less of an issue than increasing insulation factors in the atmosphere, etc. Would that be about right by your reckoning?

Well I was just thinking about how much time and energy it takes to warm a large building. This system is warming things up for thousands of miles. It probably makes what the entire grid consumes look microscopic.

Having a building heating amount as a base unit is likely an error of scale - not incorrect, just not particularly useful or enlightening when it comes to making a model of energy flows and cascades about the planet.

> It probably makes what the entire grid consumes look microscopic.

The entire US grid? Entire global electricity grid? Probably?

Have a shot at putting numbers and units to some of this ... Total amount of daily solar energy fall, total amount of daily energy radiation to space, daily residual energy at sea / surface layer, historic and current human energy consumption (broken into electricity, heat, ??) etc.

It's a handy exercise.

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#29

Post by Terr_ »

zaps wrote: post #18

Stupid question: how do they know with such fidelity what the water temp was in the Pacific in 1877? It’s not like solid land where there are strata and whatnot that leave a geological record? Or is it?

TLDR: Data sources include ships at the time that made records of temperatures as they traveled; coastal weather-stations kept pressure records indicating how strong the big weather pattern was; biological indicators from tree-ring growth, coral formations, and changes in agricultural output.

_________

I found a NOAA paper about the 1877 El Nino [0] and here are two quotes with lengthy references omitted:

> The existence of the strong 1877/78 El Niño event is supported by in-dependent data sources other than [Sea Surface Temperature], such as the Southern Oscillation index derived from sea level pressure, the drought indices derived from tree rings and corals, and records of famine or food production around the world.

> [...] However, there were few in situ [Sea Surface Temperature] observations at that time. [...] These sparse [Sea Surface Temperature] records in the east-central Pacific were measured during 14–31 December 1877 and provided by Deutsche Seewarte Marine (ship ID 120) and Met Office Marine Data Bank (ship IDs 4238 and 4270).

IANAClimatologist and I can't guarantee that's exactly the research that went into the Washington Post article cited by the substack post... however I think it's "good enough" for your question about methods.

P.S.: While I'm usually a "data is toxic" person when it comes to private data and surveillance, this kind of data is the polar opposite: It's amazing when humdrum daily information becomes useful to someone decades later, and I can only hope we continue "paying it forward" with similar gifts to those who will come after us. They are literally irreplaceable, without some form of time-travel.

[0] https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/46581

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#30

Post by breakyerself »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #23
f33d5173 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't that long ago. Maybe someone stuck a thermometer down there.

Over enough of the Pacific to be able to say this with confidence? They might have... but I doubt it.

https://www.whoi.edu/ocean-learning-hub/ocean-topics/climate...
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