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Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

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Re: Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

#22
post #10

I think it was in these forums where I first read that you can gauge AI progress by the velocity at which people move the goalposts.

Right. So how long do we have to wait? The reality is the actual output doesn’t match the hype at all. Software engineers should be getting laid off all over the place, there should be a decrease in hiring period. This is not what’s happening.

...and ultra high velocity single human person agent swarm vibe coded replacements for existing software and SaaS should come out en masse. Where are they?

Re: Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

#23
His argument is the equivalent of saying in ~1910 when the 1st mass produced Ford car came out "Where are the carbon brakes? Where is the hybrid motor system? Where is the ABS? Where are the rear parking cameras"?

Moving the goalpost.

Re: Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

#24

Not quite the direction I expected that to take, but I do agree with the broad strokes. LLMs lowering the cost of code isn't exactly solving software development, and is definitely not solving product development.

Except in a small minority of circumstances "lowering the cost of code" doesnt really help if the code which was lowered in cost was crap code.

High quality code hasnt lowered in cost. Arguably it's gone up actually because more slop needs to be cleaned up.

And, for all people drone on about "customers/the business dont care about code quality they care about results" the indirect side effects of code quality are things they do care about deeply they just cant connect the dots.

Re: Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

#25
post #10

I think it was in these forums where I first read that you can gauge AI progress by the velocity at which people move the goalposts.

Right. So how long do we have to wait? The reality is the actual output doesn’t match the hype at all. Software engineers should be getting laid off all over the place, there should be a decrease in hiring period. This is not what’s happening.

Let's see at the end of the year how that went with the supposedly disappointing actual output and no layoffs.

Re: Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

#26
I think one of the major reasons why it’s not here is because most AI tools are great for getting a prototype built up but undertaking a program like Photoshop which we can assume has a couple millions of lines of code is actually not easily replicable by vibe coding.

Can it be done? Probably. But the token cost to do so would be astronomically expensive. You still need a human (read prompt engineer) to steer the AI. Even small ideas I’ve thrown at it to test viability is often plagued by code that just simply doesn’t work. I am constantly having to send it back and say “this doesn’t work” and it will eventually figure it out but that is more wasted tokens just to get something that doesn’t throw an error during the build process.

One-off specialty programs are absolutely going to feel the heat. Take a multi-tone generation application (think Motorola pagers). You can now ask an AI to create that program for you, complete with tone generation and .wav recordings to use later.

Large programs are relatively safe for the moment just because of scale. But any small application that is usually behind some sort of paywall or license is absolutely going to be threatened since it’s no longer difficult to throw together a program in an evening and have 100% of the features you want and none of the features you didn’t need or want.

Re: Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

#27
Second sentence form the article, "If vibecoding is what people say it is, the world should be drowning in vibecoded artifacts right now." My answer: it is. Maybe we don't have a bunch of photo editing apps but it sure seems like we have a lot of vibe coded commercial and non-commercial projects being created. If i have to see one more vibe coded agent harness I might actually lose it. And I wouldn't call it all slop

Re: Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

#28
If Photoshop can be vibe coded in a couple of weeks, that's superintelligence.

I think of "tokens" as units of intelligence spent on a problem.

Producing software like Photoshop, Linux, or Excel literally cost billions of tokens (human intelligence back then, and now both human and artificial intelligence combined). A lot of deep intellectual problems were solved along the way, and the token cost of solving them accumulated. The true cost of Photoshop today should be measured in billions, maybe trillions of tokens.

AI can definitely generate some tokens, and it has accelerated everything involving intelligence. But it still can't produce 100 billion tokens worth of intelligence in a week. When that day comes, that's superintelligence. We'll go to Mars, we'll make fusion work. That's the singularity.

Re: Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

#29

can all of you say that competitor to photoshop made by AI native teams is impossible in 10 years?

Yes, because UX is not an exact science.

Aperture discontinued, one of the engineers in the team built a replacement, yet it's not Aperture.

Pixelmator did the "impossible", Apple bought them instead of doubling down on their talent and resources.

Small yet powerful editors like Acorn and Camera Bag Pro has no practical competitors in their spaces.

Technical problems are easy, yet humans and things involving human interaction is hard. You can't solve non-tangible problems by remixing tangible bits of code.

Heck, even Photoshop revamped a couple of dialog boxes, and a number of people got angry, because it behaves slightly differently and throws decades of muscle memory out of the window, and that costs people considerable amount of time.

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