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U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

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Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#21

Post by ohnei »

bombcar wrote: post #9
giarc wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US federal workforce is ~2.2 million people. Banning them all from trading on prediction markets isn't the right move. A cafeteria worker in some suburban admin office likely has no inside information they are going to trade on. Members of congress and other high level positions on the other hand should be banned.

Arguably they should ban all US residents, citizens, and immigrants from prediction markets.

Why stop at prediction markets? Trading in markets is heavily tied to information or information processing advantage so probably all assets should be held by the government to avoid conflicts of interest involving self interests.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#22

Post by ribosometronome »

Any lawyers able to comment on the actual wording of the resolution? It kind of reads to me like in their effort to narrowly capture just prediction markets like Kalshi but not stock markets, they've perhaps unintentionally barred themselves from some other unintended things, too.

https://www.moreno.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/FIL...

>No Member of the Senate may enter into, or offer to enter into, an agreement, contract, or transaction that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of a specific event.

Kind of seems like Senators would now be barred from like getting home or life insurance and certain kinds of casino gambling. Or like, making an offer on a home that is rescindable upon a failed inspection?

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#23

Post by Avicebron »

bombcar wrote: post #9
giarc wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US federal workforce is ~2.2 million people. Banning them all from trading on prediction markets isn't the right move. A cafeteria worker in some suburban admin office likely has no inside information they are going to trade on. Members of congress and other high level positions on the other hand should be banned.

Arguably they should ban all US residents, citizens, and immigrants from prediction markets.

Or just ban the companies? Opaque drath pools and gambling markets don't have a right to exist.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#25

Post by alex43578 »

ribosometronome wrote: post #22

Any lawyers able to comment on the actual wording of the resolution? It kind of reads to me like in their effort to narrowly capture just prediction markets like Kalshi but not stock markets, they've perhaps unintentionally barred themselves from some other unintended things, too. https://www.moreno.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/FIL... >No Member of the Senate may enter into, or offer to enter into, an agreem…

Not a lawyer, but that sounds like the language regulating swaps.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#26

Post by handedness »

riotnrrd wrote: post #12
rvz wrote: post #4

Good. Now they should also ban themselves from insider trading in both the public stock market and private markets as well as prediction markets.

This was done in 2012: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOCK_Act

The STOCK Act mostly only had the effect of creating some inconveniences for lawmakers (e.g., their families could still trade based on their guidance), and even that was only the case for a year as Senator Reid's House bill S.716 effectively gutted the STOCK Act and restored the status quo, was passed by unanimous consent after 14 seconds of discussion, and was signed into law by President Obama: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOCK_Act#Amendment

https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/716

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#27

Post by knollimar »

ribosometronome wrote: post #22

Any lawyers able to comment on the actual wording of the resolution? It kind of reads to me like in their effort to narrowly capture just prediction markets like Kalshi but not stock markets, they've perhaps unintentionally barred themselves from some other unintended things, too. https://www.moreno.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/FIL... >No Member of the Senate may enter into, or offer to enter into, an agreem…

What about options and futures?

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#28

Post by bombcar »

Avicebron wrote: post #23
bombcar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably they should ban all US residents, citizens, and immigrants from prediction markets.

Or just ban the companies? Opaque drath pools and gambling markets don't have a right to exist.

That was the joke ;)

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#29

Post by JuniperMesos »

lapetitejort wrote: post #14
delichon wrote: post #5

All of the other markets are prediction markets too, in terms of opportunities to profit from inside knowledge. This is like vowing to quit smoking ... Marlboros.

Would Martha Stewart be sentenced to prison for lying to federal investigators regarding her "prediction" of the release timing of her next cookbook?

Maybe, lots of things count as lying to federal investigators. I don't assume this is necessarily a just legal outcome though.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#30

Post by throwway120385 »

ohnei wrote: post #21
bombcar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably they should ban all US residents, citizens, and immigrants from prediction markets.

Why stop at prediction markets? Trading in markets is heavily tied to information or information processing advantage so probably all assets should be held by the government to avoid conflicts of interest involving self interests.

Reducto ad absurdum doesn't work here. You have to show that there's a desire and a rationale for going from limiting betting markets like Kalshi and limiting "investment" markets, which you haven't done. What you have left is a salty quip.

There's an obvious opportunity to use insider information or insider influence to create a particular outcome on Kalshi. Like I could trade on the likelihood of a power outage in my city tomorrow or the next day and then in order to make good on the "trade" I could just drive a vehicle into the substation. Or I could do something more insidious. But the fact that my incentives are aligned by Kalshi with me blowing up a power substation means that Kalshi is a net negative even though individuals could make money from it.

There's a difference between betting on the outcome of an event and investing in a company, although companies like Kalshi and Polymarket like to try to erase that difference. Investments are all notionally conditioned on a company meeting performance goals, and that incentive is aligned with the desire of company employees to also meet performance goals. Companies also generally align around some kind of useful output like washing machines or clothing which are beneficial in some way. What is useful about betting on the color of the sky at sunset in Lisbon on September 28th?

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