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Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

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Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#21
post #16

> Since Bitcoin does not have a centralized authority, law enforcement faces difficulties detecting suspicious activity, identifying users, and obtaining transaction records Yeah. Difficulty obtaining bitcoin transaction records. Good on you, FBI.

Hang on, aren't the transaction records public and stored by the whole network?

Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#22
post #7

> FBI assesses with high confidence that [...] malicious actors can [...] use botnets to generate bitcoins. As far as I understand bitcoin (which isn't too far, admittedly), the generation of bitcoins is actually encouraged, and only possible within some well-defined boundaries which basically just ensures that bitcoins are put into circulation up until it hits the fixed limit. Maybe someone could clear that up for m…

Interestingly botnets are probably a month away from being unprofitable for mining Bitcoins, in fact GPUs will be unprofitable for mining Bitcoins all-together. ASIC devices are being shipped over the next six months which will increase the mining difficulty substantially.

The benefit is that the electricity bill goes to the owners of the infected computers.

What does a botnet cost?

Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#23
post #5

Nice document. It shows well the way of thinking of our governments. "detecting suspicious activity, identifying users, and obtaining transaction records is problematic for law enforcement." - That must deeply hurts FBI people :) "Despite the virtual nature of Bitcoin, users value the currency for many of the same reasons people trust Federal Reserve notes: they believe they can exchange the currency for goods, servi…

With so few people - in Germany at least - having their assets in Gold etc. but in bank accounts in $,EUR,... I assume most people trust the currency.

Doesn't Germany hold a huge amount of gold? Additionally, the only euro country not collapsing on itself?

Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#24
post #5

Nice document. It shows well the way of thinking of our governments. "detecting suspicious activity, identifying users, and obtaining transaction records is problematic for law enforcement." - That must deeply hurts FBI people :) "Despite the virtual nature of Bitcoin, users value the currency for many of the same reasons people trust Federal Reserve notes: they believe they can exchange the currency for goods, servi…

There are two obvious ways in which expanding the money supply can go wrong.

1) Bernake et al. are feckless idiots and will leave the money presses running long after inflation rears its head, a la Zimbabwe, causing hyper inflation and the destruction of the world economy

2) The economy picks up a bit and they stop printing. However, that huge pool of money they have created is enough to drive inflation so high that they are either faced with allowing a period of high inflation 70's style or breaking the economy again with restrictive monetary policy.

Outside wild conspiracy theories I don't think 1 is plausible and 2 is hardly likely to lead to the huddled masses attempting to warm themselves around a pile of burning trillion dollar notes. So I think confidence in the dollar is safe for the interim.

Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#25
post #24
post #5

Nice document. It shows well the way of thinking of our governments. "detecting suspicious activity, identifying users, and obtaining transaction records is problematic for law enforcement." - That must deeply hurts FBI people :) "Despite the virtual nature of Bitcoin, users value the currency for many of the same reasons people trust Federal Reserve notes: they believe they can exchange the currency for goods, servi…

There are two obvious ways in which expanding the money supply can go wrong. 1) Bernake et al. are feckless idiots and will leave the money presses running long after inflation rears its head, a la Zimbabwe, causing hyper inflation and the destruction of the world economy 2) The economy picks up a bit and they stop printing. However, that huge pool of money they have created is enough to drive inflation so high that…

1) is not plausible unless it happens. Hyperinflations tend to happen only once in a history of a fiat currency.

It sounds a little bit crazy to propose that hyperinflation would happen to one of the really big world currencies (euro, dollar, yen...). But I don't see any technical reasons why it couldn't happen at some point in the future.

Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With so few people - in Germany at least - having their assets in Gold etc. but in bank accounts in $,EUR,... I assume most people trust the currency.

Doesn't Germany hold a huge amount of gold? Additionally, the only euro country not collapsing on itself?

The US Dollar area (i.e. the US) has come closer to default than the Eurozone.

Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#27
post #16

> Since Bitcoin does not have a centralized authority, law enforcement faces difficulties detecting suspicious activity, identifying users, and obtaining transaction records Yeah. Difficulty obtaining bitcoin transaction records. Good on you, FBI.

Hang on, aren't the transaction records public and stored by the whole network?

Yep.

Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#28
post #16

> Since Bitcoin does not have a centralized authority, law enforcement faces difficulties detecting suspicious activity, identifying users, and obtaining transaction records Yeah. Difficulty obtaining bitcoin transaction records. Good on you, FBI.

Hang on, aren't the transaction records public and stored by the whole network?

I think that's the point.

Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#29
post #7

> FBI assesses with high confidence that [...] malicious actors can [...] use botnets to generate bitcoins. As far as I understand bitcoin (which isn't too far, admittedly), the generation of bitcoins is actually encouraged, and only possible within some well-defined boundaries which basically just ensures that bitcoins are put into circulation up until it hits the fixed limit. Maybe someone could clear that up for m…

The malicious part is because the resources to mine the computers (physical hardware and electricity costs) are born by someone else (the owner of the infected computer).

Re: Internal FBI risk assessment of Bitcoin network [pdf]

#30
post #16

> Since Bitcoin does not have a centralized authority, law enforcement faces difficulties detecting suspicious activity, identifying users, and obtaining transaction records Yeah. Difficulty obtaining bitcoin transaction records. Good on you, FBI.

Difficulty obtaining meaningful transaction records. Transaction are public, but often obfuscated.
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