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California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

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Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#22
post #4

If you want a vivid illustration (from an adjacent state) about the impact of pessimistic fiscal projections: Oregon has an infamous "kicker" law that refunds income taxes collected in excess of projections (plus a 2% margin). The state faces the same budgetary challenges as California... but can't project too pessimistically lest it leave money off the table.

Oregon's kicker law is a textbook example of bad economic policy, sadly. It essentially means that in boom years the state can't accumulate any general funds for recessions, which is half of the point of a state-level political entity in the first place. Balanced budgets and pay as you go are fabulous over the medium term, but over the short term of a year or two during a disaster or recession, governmental spending…

Well maybe they should "project" a certain amount of revenue that goes to savings every year automatically, instead of waiting for a boom year windfall.

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#23
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that school budgets are absolutely gutted What now? https://edsource.org/2026/how-california-compares-to-other-s... https://educationdata.org/public-education-spending-statisti...

Your own link says CA spends less than UNESCO’s 15.0% standard. Also, you could frame this in a much more information dense way by making an active claim about something instead of just spamming a bunch of links.

A quick google search of the UNSECO target is "at least 15% of total public expenditure (or 4–6% of GDP)" and both the US (~5%) and California (~4-5% of gdp) already pass that criteria.

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#26
The article doesn't really explain the overall budget, for scale it looks like in the 2025-2026 budget year CA planned to spend about $228B compared to $216B revenue ($227B in the previous year).

https://ebudget.ca.gov/2025-26/pdf/Enacted/BudgetSummary/Sum...

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#28
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that school budgets are absolutely gutted What now? https://edsource.org/2026/how-california-compares-to-other-s... https://educationdata.org/public-education-spending-statisti...

Your own link says CA spends less than UNESCO’s 15.0% standard. Also, you could frame this in a much more information dense way by making an active claim about something instead of just spamming a bunch of links.

The UNESCO standard is meant for developing countries.

In 2021, California spent about $121 billion on K-12, out of a GDP of $3.4 trillion, or about 3.5% of state GDP. That puts it above the OECD average of 3.3%, around the same as France at 3.5%. blob:https://www.oecd.org/702dcc03-0749-41b6-af41-112fd1af1bfb. (This is the parent page: https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/public-spending-on-e.... You have to select non-tertiary education, which is basically what we call K-12.)

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#29
post #7

This is wild. A mistake of this magnitude should result in several positions becoming vacant and many politicians being ineligible for any future offices. If a government can’t budget accurately everything else they do is likely even less competent. Every number and statistic they report should be treated with suspicion. Without clear data who is to say they are doing anything helpful at all?

The errors were all within the CalPERS pension fund. The pensions are guaranteed by the state, so the fund is notorious for a complete lack of fiduciary duty, and these types of errors track with the general quality of their operation.

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#30
post #17
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Or! People understand that everyone makes mistakes and firing anyone who does only leads to people prioritizing hiding their mistakes vs. fixing them. It’s helpful, whenever you find yourself saying something like, “the only real explanation to me”, to think of a good faith version before assuming that the most cynical take is reality.

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