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UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

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Re: UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

#21

> If collapse happens, it notes the UK does not have the ability to absorb global shocks through higher domestic output. It lacks enough land to feed its population or rear livestock to maintain current consumption patterns and price levels. Yet they're pushing to use farmland for solar farms and social housing. There's a real hatred of farmers among the UK Leftist/Green crowd.

Farmland is ~69% of the total area of the UK with it being quite stable in the last decade, and most of that being grassland. Solar accounts for ~0.1% of (former) agricultural land, and after 2030 it should be around ~0.6%. The Land Use Framework aims for 1% of land (mainly agricultural, so ~1.5% of ag) for renewables by 2050. Housing doesn't have as comparable figures, but I'm envelope mathing it to about 1.5% by 2050 again. Which makes 3% of ag land, of which crops are roughly 1/3rd, and google says 60% of solar is on good crop land. So a reduction of up to ~6% at the top end.

There are a few flip-sides here - things that many don't like to hear or acknowledge:

There are alternate diets that are suitably nutritious that are achievable on this land, largely by reducing meat consumption. Meat production uses much more land than other food sources, and a lot of that is input crops. Its inefficient. A change in diet can make the UK self-sufficient on much less land.

Solar is a developing technology; it will improve, requiring less land for the same production. If long term trends push up the value of crops and down solar production, the panels can be removed and crops grown instead - its either/or but it is reversible. This is especially important for bringing in non-solar power sources which take longer to realise (nuclear, tidal). I will also note that solar farms are built on the good crop land because it is convenient and the price is right. We will see south facing hills covered soon enough.

Housing and social housing are the same problem; where housing prices are so high compared to salaries, social housing demand increases. Building houses - any houses - solves the problem. The question of density, location, style is a question about what kind of problems we want in 10-20 years time. High rises did not work well at all.

Re: UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

#22
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's been possible to feed the UK domestically since before WW2. I note you put the word "social" in there; very little social housing is being built, it's mostly private. Agrivoltaics are also possible, but of course everyone would rather do the politics of emotions ("hate farmers") than discuss the issues. Such as how we grow enough electricity, too.

> I don't think it's been possible to feed the UK domestically since before WW2. Of course you can, I know people being almost self sustainable right now on very little land. It is hard, frugal but highly rewarding and we have evolved to do it since very recently. Energy and heating is a bit more complicated. We obviously cannot burn wood or coal like we use to because this is actually very damaging to the planet. So…

Farming might feel rewarding while watching someone else do the hard work. I watched and had to help my grandparents do it and went through my own decade of "farming" and it never gets easier and you only get older.

Re: UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

#23

Here is the solution nobody is talking about: The population of the UK or Europe did not explode in the last hundred years. It did not even double. The population used to be more rural and relatively self sufficient in terms of food. There is actually enough land in Europe to feed everybody, especially considering the great progress we made scientifically. You can actually sustain yourself on a few hundred square met…

I think you’re talking about subsistence farming, which plenty of places in Europe do practice. But it is hard work.

Subsistence farming would be farming to only feed the farmers with little excess left for trade, it's a little too keyhole in this context.

They're talking more in the direction of EU scale closed loop / closed cycle agriculture, in which a network of farms across countries interop to exchange resources (pig and chicken waste, for fertilizer, for example) in order to reduce or eliminate outside inputs (synthetic fertilizers from the Gulf, for example), but still work to maximise production for EU consumption.

Re: UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

#24

Here is the solution nobody is talking about: The population of the UK or Europe did not explode in the last hundred years. It did not even double. The population used to be more rural and relatively self sufficient in terms of food. There is actually enough land in Europe to feed everybody, especially considering the great progress we made scientifically. You can actually sustain yourself on a few hundred square met…

Europe’s big problem is the hindered of millions of climate refugees on the doorstep. Even the most open heart liberal will baulk at the population doubling or more in 20 years. The only ones promising a solution will be the neofeudalists

But Europe also have to stop believing they can solve the world problems and act on a global scale. This time is long gone, about at least a hundred year.

Every region, culture will need to find a path to sustainability in their own way. If the path they take is invading another region, it leads to war. Like it has been for thousands of years.

Re: UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

#25
post #9

> If collapse happens, it notes the UK does not have the ability to absorb global shocks through higher domestic output. It lacks enough land to feed its population or rear livestock to maintain current consumption patterns and price levels. Yet they're pushing to use farmland for solar farms and social housing. There's a real hatred of farmers among the UK Leftist/Green crowd.

I don't think it's been possible to feed the UK domestically since before WW2. I note you put the word "social" in there; very little social housing is being built, it's mostly private. Agrivoltaics are also possible, but of course everyone would rather do the politics of emotions ("hate farmers") than discuss the issues. Such as how we grow enough electricity, too.

https://animal.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/Eating-Awa...

This covers moving the UK to self-sustain by reducing animal products and repurposing animal feed cropland to direct consumption cropland; it also covers reforestation.

So while it isn't possible today, its possible to become possible without relying on any technological advancements.

Re: UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

#26

Here is the solution nobody is talking about: The population of the UK or Europe did not explode in the last hundred years. It did not even double. The population used to be more rural and relatively self sufficient in terms of food. There is actually enough land in Europe to feed everybody, especially considering the great progress we made scientifically. You can actually sustain yourself on a few hundred square met…

I think the fundamental problem is the conflict between climate, family and live-style vs corporate interest and economic growth.

Ideally, we should want populations that are either not growing or slowly shrinking, but we can't have this because multi-national corporations don't want to invest in countries with a declining consumer base. We must therefore sustain population growth indefinitely.

Similar humans would presumably prefer more space – perhaps a home with a few bedrooms and a decent sized garden where they can grow a little food and the kids and play in the summer. But we can't have this because it's more economically productive if we increase population density such that people increasingly live in small flats within high-rise buildings with no gardens and little natural light.

And I get it, money is nice... People will trade a lot of things for more money, but the government ideally should not encourage this.

Ideally the government should be encouraging people to have a home with a garden. To have a couple of kids. To grow some of their own food. To work in their local community, and therefore obtain an education which will help them to be productive members of their community – rather than say taking a punt at studying journalism at university and hoping they'll get a job in some city 200 miles from home and their family.

Just speaking personally, the city I grew up in in the UK has become hell to live in over the last couple of decades. It's almost impossible to drive around today because of densification which has taken place. All of the local fields that I played on as a kid have been turned into cheap flats which has transformed the semi-rural area I used to live into an ugly anti-human concrete jungle. And because of the number of people now living around here no one seems to know anyone anymore – I walk outside my house and it feels like there's random people everywhere, and I've noticed many people around me don't even seem to speak English anymore.

It's such a strange thing we are doing... It really makes no sense for us to want to live like this.

Re: UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe’s big problem is the hindered of millions of climate refugees on the doorstep. Even the most open heart liberal will baulk at the population doubling or more in 20 years. The only ones promising a solution will be the neofeudalists

Why would an open heart liberal have any concern with welcoming refugees?

Depends where they're coming from I guess. There's basically no where on Earth where people are as liberal as Europe.

No liberal would want millions of people coming from Afghanistan, for example.

Re: UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

#28

> If collapse happens, it notes the UK does not have the ability to absorb global shocks through higher domestic output. It lacks enough land to feed its population or rear livestock to maintain current consumption patterns and price levels. Yet they're pushing to use farmland for solar farms and social housing. There's a real hatred of farmers among the UK Leftist/Green crowd.

> > It lacks enough land to feed its population or rear livestock to maintain current consumption patterns and price levels.

> Yet they're pushing to use farmland for solar farms and social housing.

Cities, you may note, never ever make enough food to feed themselves. Always been true, everywhere and everywhen since the invention of the city.

Farmers choosing between cash crops and food crops was literally a game the teachers got the kids to play when I was in school in the 90s. Cash crops, and PV is kinda a cash crop, let you make enough money to buy food. That said, how much money depends on what industry you have to use the power, because nobody else in the world will care for the £ if the UK employment consists entirely of baristas, hairdressers, and Amazon warehouse staff/delivery drivers.

The biggest problem with using farmland for social housing is that a lot of the good farmland is a flood risk.

But the only case where the UK has to care that it doesn't make enough to feed itself is if the economy becomes an autarky, at which point it cannot help but suffer a massive population reduction because it's a small island quite close to the arctic circle which has spent or depleted most of its natural resources, first the wood (1600s-1700s), then the coal (1930s or so), then the fish (1980s or so), then the natural gas (early 2000s).

Re: UK intelligence censored report on global warming and homeland security

#30
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would an open heart liberal have any concern with welcoming refugees?

Depends where they're coming from I guess. There's basically no where on Earth where people are as liberal as Europe. No liberal would want millions of people coming from Afghanistan, for example.

Presumably you mean No True Liberal.
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