So... will we see EU apply sanctions?
America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
21–30 of 128 posts
Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
#22How times have changed when a neoliberal institution (not quite as bad as The Economist) openly says this: > Even the threat of terrorism from the region was a consequence of American involvement, not the reason for it. Had the United States not been deeply and consistently involved in the Muslim world since the 1940s, Islamic militants would have little interest in attacking an indifferent nation 5,000 miles and two…
Maybe it will finally get a critical mass of people to realize how much oil and gas sucks.
Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
#23The single most interesting thing that will come out of the Iran war, is it's giving the go-ahead signal for China. I don't mean morally specifically, I mean practically: China is plainly seeing the US can't sustain a long campaign what-so-ever. The US has burned through ~850 Tomahawks in weeks, 20-25% of its stock. Again an opponent that wasn't that hard to knock down in terms of air to ground / ground to air, and s…
on the other hand the us interventions have betrayed that chinese radars e.g. don't "work as advertised", to the point that there have been purges at chinese military industrial manufacturers. on top of the recent purges in the military hierarchy, it seems like action against Taiwan is delayed for a few years. conversely the US brass now has a fire lit under its ass due to low ammo stockpiles and and excuse to replen…
If they move on correcting that properly of course. We'll see what they do.
The US requires an exceptional surge in manufacturing output for ammo.
Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
#24Robert Kagan is not wrong about many points, but it is worth noting that he is one of the leading neocons, husband of Nuland, and architect of PNAC:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_C...
The think tank (Brookings Institute) which he is part of laid out the Iran strategy "Path to Persia" something like 15 years ago.
I think he does recognize that the US needs Europe for projecting power, so that part is genuine. The US could not prosper against a hypothetical Eurasian union.
Not sure what to make of this. Maybe it is supposed to appease the EU (you still have allies in Washington), maybe it is a wakeup call for the deep state to pull the brakes.
Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
#25[flagged]
You assume way too much competence on either side.
Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
#26The single most interesting thing that will come out of the Iran war, is it's giving the go-ahead signal for China. I don't mean morally specifically, I mean practically: China is plainly seeing the US can't sustain a long campaign what-so-ever. The US has burned through ~850 Tomahawks in weeks, 20-25% of its stock. Again an opponent that wasn't that hard to knock down in terms of air to ground / ground to air, and s…
The biggest thing protecting Taiwan right now is that the US keeps getting worse and worse. Why invade today when it'll be even easier next year? The current leadership of China has essentially committed to invading Taiwan but can stall by postponing. That's a tactic that won't work forever. The hope was it could last long enough for a leadership changeover in China, but at the rate the US is degrading, that seems like faint hope.
Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
#27[flagged]
very good for Russia
quite good for China to better understand US military capabilities
maybe good for Trump if he wants to come up with excuses to fully size government power / avoid or fake mid term elections or even "just" frighten voters that if the a government change happens now it will be "very bad" for the US etc.
bad for the US (both as a supper power and for it's citizens)
and if escalating (which seems very likely) potentially far worse for Europe, Turkey and likely some other places because the refuge wave this can cause is one a completely different level then the one by Syria (like >4x times as bad if worst comes to worst, 1)
simple put for all those who want to destroy democracy in the west this is grate in many ways.
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1: Syria had ~21 Mil citizens before the war, Iran has ~92 Mil + 9 Mil refuges from Afghanistan + others. In general Iran is the land wich currently houses the largest number of refuges AFIK. If thinks go bad this are the people which often will have to flee first. To make matters worse there is a ongoing drinking water crisis, even without a ware or destroyed desalination plants Iran might need to evacuate Tehran (~10 Mil).
Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
#28[flagged]
If there's any constant across the political spectrum, it is that Putin is some kind of magical wizard. The only difference of opinion is whether he's a good wizard or bad one.
Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
#29The single most interesting thing that will come out of the Iran war, is it's giving the go-ahead signal for China. I don't mean morally specifically, I mean practically: China is plainly seeing the US can't sustain a long campaign what-so-ever. The US has burned through ~850 Tomahawks in weeks, 20-25% of its stock. Again an opponent that wasn't that hard to knock down in terms of air to ground / ground to air, and s…
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Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
#30[flagged]
It doesn't add up at all, the cost of oil is just one metric and so far the prices are still lower than the last administration's self-inflicted high oil prices that we had just a few short years ago. Obviously the price of oil isn't the whole story. Also Iran had been supplying Russia with a lot of parts for drones. Now they can't, making Ukraine's victory more likely than before.
Four years ago the world was coming out of covid and supply chains were screwed for years. Much of the inflation was not due to any particular policy, but just fallout from what COVID did to world markets.
The reasons for high oil prices now are a completely different cause.