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Treason in the Futures Markets

paulkrugman.substack.com

21–30 of 67 posts

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#21

None of this is any surprise to people who had two brain cells to rub together. He showed massive corruption in his first term, and despite being impeached twice, got away with it scot free. Then got a huge mandate from the people to be a shitty person, so yeah, he’s corrupt. The majority of voting Americans don’t really seem to care.

[deleted]

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#23

And very soon, as economics and behavioral sciences suggest, we will have world events directly influenced by people having the incentives to make them happen for financial gains only. There's a reason we have banned and prosecuted any hint of insider trading or match fixing for centuries. Yet we play dumb on way more serious risks, allowing betting on whether a country will attack another and labeling it "informatio…

Vote, protest, speak up, go into politics.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#24
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quantity makes it more than weird. This is not just price change or manipulation. Prices can move big amounts for weird reasons without significant changes in trade volumes. The volume of sales makes it significant. $580 million sales of oil futures and probably similar amount of buys in stock futures means $1T quick billion move. Nobody makes half trillion __trades__ for weird reasons and this was too short to b…

*580 million

There was equity futures and oil contracts both at the same time. Total risked with zero public news was approx $1.5B

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#25

While I agree it is very suspicious, needs investigating and far, far greater oversight in general, I'm not sure there is enough to conclude this definitely is insider trading. Markets are weird. People trade for weird reasons, sometimes gently and in small size, sometimes aggressively and all at once. We're zooming in at a short window just before the tweet. If you look at random windows you'll find these too. 6.49…

I'm sorry but I'm finding it hard to believe this is a real comment. How's this a coincidence? Trump has boasted about this, that's the point we're in.[0] They're announcing in a newsletter a fund raising where they will share national secrets with donors.[1] This is literally people paying to get access to privileged information, in a fund raising for what? Like it's openly being said that if you pay enough money, y…

It’s a serious comment, posted solely with the intent to sow doubt.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#26
post #23

And very soon, as economics and behavioral sciences suggest, we will have world events directly influenced by people having the incentives to make them happen for financial gains only. There's a reason we have banned and prosecuted any hint of insider trading or match fixing for centuries. Yet we play dumb on way more serious risks, allowing betting on whether a country will attack another and labeling it "informatio…

Vote, protest, speak up, go into politics.

Politics require more than good intentions.

See how many vile, empathy-void sociopaths are elected across the world because they have the political skills required to make things happen.

What I try in practice is to lead by example, and be a good neighbor/citizen. In my village, 90% of the people would rather bitch about the mayor or public services not cleaning up the park for months or years, when you can simply grab few plastic bags and clean most of it in few hours. I'm glad my initiative has pushed more citizens to actively care and take matters in their hands.

Yet the scope of degeneracy and risks are now at the global stage and I don't think I can do much when people with the wrong incentives are elected in office, if there's elections at all.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#27

Excuse my ignorance, but why can't this be traced? It's not crypto wallets, why is there no transparency here?

Literally everyone who investigated Trump got fored or left.

Flynn just got large payout as reward for breaking the law for Trump.

That is why.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#28

Excuse my ignorance, but why can't this be traced? It's not crypto wallets, why is there no transparency here?

It can. Orders on the cme are tied to a specific trader id.

The question is not if it can be investigated it’s if it will be and what will happen with the findings.

The first thing the Trump admin did in its second term was gut the anticorruption offices and the cftc.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#29
post #23

And very soon, as economics and behavioral sciences suggest, we will have world events directly influenced by people having the incentives to make them happen for financial gains only. There's a reason we have banned and prosecuted any hint of insider trading or match fixing for centuries. Yet we play dumb on way more serious risks, allowing betting on whether a country will attack another and labeling it "informatio…

Vote, protest, speak up, go into politics.

And vote with your wallet. In general, contribute your 2 cents to the good cause. Let your voice be heard, join initiatives that work on solutions. Whatever you do. It does matter.

Re: Treason in the Futures Markets

#30
post #9

"Treason" seems a bit much. We put a very high bar on that term because it comes with the most serious consequences. The fact that nobody seems particularly surprised by it suggests that the damage is long since done.

You don't think starting a war apparently to distract the media, then lying about peace talks solely to drain money from the markets is treasonous?

How about when combined with all the tariffs, which seem designed to be market levers and/or just vindictive acts?

Pushing businesses to the edge, plunging people into poverty, so your cronies and you can drain money from the stock market?

Or taking bribes using crypto? Or ...

They all seem treasonous - actively harming your own country to enrich yourself.

Even if you don't find them treasonous, you have to admit they're in contravention to the emoluments clause; so Congress should still impeach the evil bastard.

And we haven't even started on his crimes beyond the simple financial ones from the last year!

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