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Designing AI for Disruptive Science

asimov.press

21–30 of 51 posts

Re: Designing AI for Disruptive Science

#21
post #7

The article presumes that the models we have today describing everything could still be subject to a major paradigm shift. Maybe they could be, but it seems pretty unlikely. The edges of a lot of scientific understanding are now past practical applicability. The edges are essentially models of things impossible to test. In fact, relativity was only recently fully backed up with experimental data.

> article presumes ... everything could still be subject to a major paradigm shift. ...seems pretty unlikely Alternatively: there's plenty of mainstream, accepted science that's plain, flat out, provably wrong. Yet, it is against good taste (job security, people's feelings, status quo bias, etc.) to point this out. Hence, it can actually be tricky to catch wind of, or get a grasp on, such issues to begin with, much l…

> there's plenty of mainstream, accepted science that's plain, flat out, provably wrong. Yet, it is against good taste (read: job security, people's feelings, etc.) to point this out.

I highly doubt that.

There are a lot of people that think they've proving the mainstream wrong. But more often than not, it's cranks using bad non-repeated tests. These bad tests are propped up, ironically, because of people's feelings and job security more than a built up body of evidence.

They also almost always have to ignore the mainstream body of evidence and just say it's wrong and bad because of a conspiracy.

For example, plenty of creationists believe they have irrefutable evidence that evolution is provably wrong. It's usually a few cherry picked or poorly interpreted results or sometimes just flat out lying. And often they simply flat out lie about the existing body of evidence that support evolution.

Another example is the antivaxx movement. Wakefield and RFK both built careers that made them a lot of money talking about how the mainstream was wrong. Even when the industry adopted some of the recommendations (abandoning Thimerosal), they simply ignored the fact that further data didn't support their claims.

Re: Designing AI for Disruptive Science

#22
post #9

My hot take is that mathematical and scientific 'soundness' is ultimately more of an aesthetic preference than an objective quality of reality. Good science makes sense to humans, and 'what makes sense' is ultimately what fits satisfyingly in your brain. There's nothing inherently wrong with an enormous epicycle model of reality from the perspective of the God of Math; so long as your formal system is consistent and…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99_Variations_on_a_Proof

Re: Designing AI for Disruptive Science

#23
post #7

The article presumes that the models we have today describing everything could still be subject to a major paradigm shift. Maybe they could be, but it seems pretty unlikely. The edges of a lot of scientific understanding are now past practical applicability. The edges are essentially models of things impossible to test. In fact, relativity was only recently fully backed up with experimental data.

> article presumes ... everything could still be subject to a major paradigm shift. ...seems pretty unlikely Alternatively: there's plenty of mainstream, accepted science that's plain, flat out, provably wrong. Yet, it is against good taste (job security, people's feelings, status quo bias, etc.) to point this out. Hence, it can actually be tricky to catch wind of, or get a grasp on, such issues to begin with, much l…

> ... there's plenty of mainstream, accepted science that's plain, flat out, provably wrong : : > I'd name some examples, but you wouldn't believe me.

I probably would not. You would probably be wrong

Re: Designing AI for Disruptive Science

#24
post #9

My hot take is that mathematical and scientific 'soundness' is ultimately more of an aesthetic preference than an objective quality of reality. Good science makes sense to humans, and 'what makes sense' is ultimately what fits satisfyingly in your brain. There's nothing inherently wrong with an enormous epicycle model of reality from the perspective of the God of Math; so long as your formal system is consistent and…

>...nothing inherently wrong with an enormous epicycle model of reality...

That would be pretty hopeless for launching satellites and the like.

Re: Designing AI for Disruptive Science

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think paradigm shifts have to be 'better' in some march-toward-progress sense, they can be lateral or even regressive in that way and still lead to longer-horizon improvements. I think also what's practically applicable changes constantly. Perhaps we're truly at the End of Science, but empirically we've been wrong every other time we've said that. My money is that there's more race to run.

> I don't think paradigm shifts have to be 'better' But they do. Paradigm shifts happen because the new paradigm explains the unexplained and importantly also covers the old model. If prior data is unexplained with a paradigm shift, the shift will never be adopted. > Perhaps we're truly at the End of Science Who said that? Just because the core of our current models seem pretty rock steady doesn't mean there's not mo…

> It simply means that we can mostly just expect refining rather

The practical issue is if there will enough funds for just "refining", instead of "paradigm shifts", which I understand as new and "exciting" discoveries. I'm not a scientist, of course, this is just my layman's understanding.

Re: Designing AI for Disruptive Science

#28

What's more alarming isn't that AI is limited to existing domain data, it's that when people push it to deviate outside those known data points it confidently hallucinates nonsense.

So much nonsense.

If I had a nickel for every AI-poisoned "researcher" I'd seen with a preprint full of nonsense buzzwords like "quantum fractal holographic resonance matrix"... well, I wouldn't be rich, but I'd probably at least have enough to buy a coffee.

Re: Designing AI for Disruptive Science

#29
post #24
post #9

My hot take is that mathematical and scientific 'soundness' is ultimately more of an aesthetic preference than an objective quality of reality. Good science makes sense to humans, and 'what makes sense' is ultimately what fits satisfyingly in your brain. There's nothing inherently wrong with an enormous epicycle model of reality from the perspective of the God of Math; so long as your formal system is consistent and…

>...nothing inherently wrong with an enormous epicycle model of reality... That would be pretty hopeless for launching satellites and the like.

What use does the God of Math have for satellites and the like?
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