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Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

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Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

#21

Post by ziml77 »

netsharc wrote: post #12
the_gastropod wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For once? Didn’t our previous president just clear this cynically low bar?

Ok, so in your genius reality, did Biden start the Russia-Ukrainian war or the Israeli genocide? Or am I just too dumb and interpreting your oh-so-clever sentence wrong? I'm also curious if you could explain the logic more than "Just so your own research man"...

You're reading them wrong and I'm not sure what you find clever about the wording.

The bar was a president that doesn't start pointless wars. That's a low bar. Biden cleared said low bar by not starting pointless wars.

Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

#22

Post by [deleted] »

Detrytus wrote: post #15
dyauspitr wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how? Iran is right next door. They can target any mode of getting oil out of there. Not just the strait of Hormuz but any pipelines that lead away from the region can just as easily be targeted. One Shahed to the pipeline is all it would take.

In theory yes, but in practice those drones would have to take a really long flight over enemy territory giving more opportunities to shoot them down. And it’s not like they are difficult to shoot down, they are cheap crap, their only advantage being that there’s a lot of them

[deleted]

Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

#23

Post by gmerc »

Detrytus wrote: post #15
dyauspitr wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how? Iran is right next door. They can target any mode of getting oil out of there. Not just the strait of Hormuz but any pipelines that lead away from the region can just as easily be targeted. One Shahed to the pipeline is all it would take.

In theory yes, but in practice those drones would have to take a really long flight over enemy territory giving more opportunities to shoot them down. And it’s not like they are difficult to shoot down, they are cheap crap, their only advantage being that there’s a lot of them

You really haven’t been paying attention to Ukraine. You can launch them from trucks. from boats. You can make them so cheap defense becomes too costly. What people don’t seem to get is that you that much of modern infrastructure is not scalable to an age of war and chaos the US is unleashing in bid to shift power dynamics from economy (which China is winning) to military.

Pipelines have endless vulnerability surface as Ukraine showed and just do the math on trucks vs a super tanker.

Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

#24

Post by [deleted] »

bethekidyouwant wrote: post #14
wat10000 wrote: post #4

Tautologically yes. Whatever the world gets is its supply. Depending on how much can be done to bypass the Strait, that supply may diminish substantially. Already has, I suppose. It would be nice if this was the thing that finally kicked governments into gear to get off our reliance on oil. But I don’t think 20% is quite big enough to make that happen.

By what banning driving?

[deleted]

Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

#25

Post by magicalhippo »

jleyank wrote: post #18

Don’t forget the world needs LNG and the stuff made from petrochemicals such as fertilizer. They need to make chem plants as well as refineries to go with drilling new wells and run them harder. Get Venezuela up, but that’s probably O(years). Is there enough copper and power to get those ev stations up in the us? Cuz now’s their chance.

Recently submitted[1] related Bloomberg story:

Strikes on Qatar's LNG Ras Laffan plant Will Reshape the Future of Fossil Gas

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47484246

Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

#26

Post by wat10000 »

bethekidyouwant wrote: post #14
wat10000 wrote: post #4

Tautologically yes. Whatever the world gets is its supply. Depending on how much can be done to bypass the Strait, that supply may diminish substantially. Already has, I suppose. It would be nice if this was the thing that finally kicked governments into gear to get off our reliance on oil. But I don’t think 20% is quite big enough to make that happen.

By what banning driving?

Have you heard of electricity?

Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

#27

Post by the_gastropod »

netsharc wrote: post #12
the_gastropod wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For once? Didn’t our previous president just clear this cynically low bar?

Ok, so in your genius reality, did Biden start the Russia-Ukrainian war or the Israeli genocide? Or am I just too dumb and interpreting your oh-so-clever sentence wrong? I'm also curious if you could explain the logic more than "Just so your own research man"...

Yea, other commenters on this thread got it, so think you misunderstood my point: no. Biden did not start any wars as far as I’m aware, which was the point I was trying to make: not only have there existed non-war-starting presidents, our previous president was one of them!

Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

#29

Post by dyauspitr »

alecco wrote: post #17
dyauspitr wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how? Iran is right next door. They can target any mode of getting oil out of there. Not just the strait of Hormuz but any pipelines that lead away from the region can just as easily be targeted. One Shahed to the pipeline is all it would take.

At these higher prices you can safely bet other producers are drilling new wells, adding more infrastructure, and upgrading refineries.

That’s not going to replace the sheer volume of the Middle East.

Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?

#30

Post by dyauspitr »

Detrytus wrote: post #15
dyauspitr wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how? Iran is right next door. They can target any mode of getting oil out of there. Not just the strait of Hormuz but any pipelines that lead away from the region can just as easily be targeted. One Shahed to the pipeline is all it would take.

In theory yes, but in practice those drones would have to take a really long flight over enemy territory giving more opportunities to shoot them down. And it’s not like they are difficult to shoot down, they are cheap crap, their only advantage being that there’s a lot of them

As low tech as they are, they fly low, can’t really be detected by radar and you only need one to get through. Pipelines are long and can’t be protected.
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