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Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

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Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#21
post #17

Why's the stock going down so far today?

Well it was up almost 9% yesterday. Today's down is probably just a calming down of the large increase yesterday (but I don't know, I'm just making that up).

That seems to happen a lot to stocks after a large daily increase or decrease (it reverts somewhat the next day)

Has anyone investigated that as an investing strategy?

Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#22
post #11

I don't understand why Tesla's losses keep increasing; now they're losing $33M a month, up from $20M a month a year ago and roughtly the same as last quarter. That with $50M in revenue this quarter and actual shipping product. Can someone explain? Are they still purchasing capital equipment? Are their overheads that high? That said, $30M a month is not that many cars. If they can sell them, and losses don't increase…

Right now they are building the Signature series cars. These are the first 1000 cars. The reservations for these cars involved a $40k payment up front, in some cases up to 3 years ago. General production cars only required a $5k payment up front. As a result, they are only capturing ~$50k per car, versus ~$85k once GP cars start rolling off the line.

In addition, they've been ramping up production (they're roughly halfway to their target 400/wk goal), and that involves overhead like training new staff and building out an operations team. They should get to full production capacity at the end of the month, but they've already hired those extra workers and they're going to burn through cash while they get up to speed.

Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#23
I loaded few hundred shares of TSLA in my portfolio only because I love the innovation this company has to offer. I would normally not invest in a company that has high uncertainty like Tesla but something about the company and Elon Musk made me own a piece of it. I am not sure if it was a good investment, but I am happy to be a part of it.

Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#24
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it was up almost 9% yesterday. Today's down is probably just a calming down of the large increase yesterday (but I don't know, I'm just making that up).

That seems to happen a lot to stocks after a large daily increase or decrease (it reverts somewhat the next day) Has anyone investigated that as an investing strategy?

Hi,

I used to invest back in the day. Anyway, there are many investing strategies. They all have names such as Value, Growth, Event Driven, etc. I won't list them all. The investing strategy that attempts to exploit movements in stock price after an event (e.g. the type that you are asking about for the earnings announcement in the Tesla example) is called "Event Driven" investing. Another example of an "event" would be after an acquisition is announced to the public. Typically the target (one being acquired) stock will go up and the acquiror (one acquiring) will go down. Investors often try to take advantage of this trend. What is the relationship that investors are betting on if the target price always (usually) goes up, and the acquirer going down? Closing risk. At any point the acquisition, despite being publicly announced, could fall apart because of due diligence issues, etc.

Relating all that back to your question about Tesla: the fundamental value or true value of a company may or may not be reflected in a company's stock price. Think of the stock market as a manifestation of what people (investors) might believe the value is, but the reality is that the fundamentals might be vastly different. The reversion back to norm is something that happens as the market (investors who are imperfect--trust me--think AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman) attempts to settle on true value.

Side note: Volatility in the stock price could also be attributed to a small float (not that many shares outstanding which leads to a small number of investors causing spikes in the price), but I'd have to look at Tesla's stock info to be certain.

Hope this helps,

Jenny

Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#25
post #15
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what do you say when the government doesn't decide to support your start up, but instead picks your competitor and runs you out of business because they happen to be related to a senator ? The ends don't always justify the means.

Leaving aside the silliness of deciding macroeconomic policy on hypothetical edge cases for a moment... How often does that happen? The US government is utterly paranoid about nepotism, to the extent that we waste a huge amount of money in the bidding process for government contracts because we don't want to seem as if we're favoring anyone, even if that favor is the result of something like having done good work in…

Nepotism is a live and well at the local and state level. If anything it works just fine at the national level, the difference is that today's politicians have become very adept at keeping you from finding out. Better yet, when you do find out and they get caught they rarely suffer any consequences for it.

Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#26
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaving aside the silliness of deciding macroeconomic policy on hypothetical edge cases for a moment... How often does that happen? The US government is utterly paranoid about nepotism, to the extent that we waste a huge amount of money in the bidding process for government contracts because we don't want to seem as if we're favoring anyone, even if that favor is the result of something like having done good work in…

Nepotism is a live and well at the local and state level. If anything it works just fine at the national level, the difference is that today's politicians have become very adept at keeping you from finding out. Better yet, when you do find out and they get caught they rarely suffer any consequences for it.

Yes, there is a problem, we just can't see it! Sigh.

Every federal government contract that has even a hint of favoritism is litigated to all hell, where lawyers comb through everyone's emails going back years to dig up any dirt they can find. If it was a big problem, we'd know about it.

Nepotism is alive and well at the state and local level. This is partly because state and local governments are far less sophisticated than the federal government in terms of process and people, and also because there is not a strong culture of litigating contracts.

Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#27
post #23

I loaded few hundred shares of TSLA in my portfolio only because I love the innovation this company has to offer. I would normally not invest in a company that has high uncertainty like Tesla but something about the company and Elon Musk made me own a piece of it. I am not sure if it was a good investment, but I am happy to be a part of it.

You will not regret, if you analyze her companies you will see that he transform every market he worked. Paypal is still (my opinion) the best online payment system, space x is the first private company to explore the space and already has a lot of success, tesla is only starting but i think everyone will need and want a eletric car with free charges all over the US.

Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#28
post #23

I loaded few hundred shares of TSLA in my portfolio only because I love the innovation this company has to offer. I would normally not invest in a company that has high uncertainty like Tesla but something about the company and Elon Musk made me own a piece of it. I am not sure if it was a good investment, but I am happy to be a part of it.

You will not regret, if you analyze her companies you will see that he transform every market he worked. Paypal is still (my opinion) the best online payment system, space x is the first private company to explore the space and already has a lot of success, tesla is only starting but i think everyone will need and want a eletric car with free charges all over the US.

Yes, I agree that Elon would likely take the company to profitability but it will be interesting to see if there is any money to be made by stock owners of today when Tesla hits profitability tomorrow.

Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#29
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nepotism is a live and well at the local and state level. If anything it works just fine at the national level, the difference is that today's politicians have become very adept at keeping you from finding out. Better yet, when you do find out and they get caught they rarely suffer any consequences for it.

Yes, there is a problem, we just can't see it! Sigh. Every federal government contract that has even a hint of favoritism is litigated to all hell, where lawyers comb through everyone's emails going back years to dig up any dirt they can find. If it was a big problem, we'd know about it. Nepotism is alive and well at the state and local level. This is partly because state and local governments are far less sophistica…

There is structural favoritism, if not nepotism, in the federal system. The byzantine bidding process, requirements, etc. mean only either very large companies or very specialized companies tend to go for direct government contracts. Plus, even in cases where they are initially assigned fairly, they become a prime contractor and can be gatekeepers on every other aspect of the system. Even if their decisions are then not made on profit motives, they're not made on "best interest of the customer", either -- it's about reducing risk (of all kinds) vs. delivering the best expected product to the customer.

Re: Tesla reports great Q3 results, expects to be cash flow positive by Q4

#30
post #15
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what do you say when the government doesn't decide to support your start up, but instead picks your competitor and runs you out of business because they happen to be related to a senator ? The ends don't always justify the means.

Leaving aside the silliness of deciding macroeconomic policy on hypothetical edge cases for a moment... How often does that happen? The US government is utterly paranoid about nepotism, to the extent that we waste a huge amount of money in the bidding process for government contracts because we don't want to seem as if we're favoring anyone, even if that favor is the result of something like having done good work in…

This isn't an edge case. In fact the NYT just did an expose on how this effects China[1]. You will also find this kind of corruption in every other country where the government is allowed to openly partner in private ventures. Heck we did it in America with Boeing under the pretense of security and managed to mothball our entire aviation industry.

1. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/business/global/family-of-...

See Also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yukos

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