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On Google, a Political Mystery That's All Numbers

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Re: On Google, a Political Mystery That's All Numbers

#21

I don't know why they bother putting 'Mystery' in the headline. http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=obama,%20romney Surprise, the incumbent president is far more popular than the challenger, in terms of historic searches. There's no mystery, this is somewhere between a fluff political piece and an advertisement for Google's new search tech. Come on WSJ, you can do better. edit: A bigger mystery; does anyone know wh…

Regarding popularity by country: I don't know, but I would speculate that decreased access in Burundi, Guinea, etc. means they don't use the internet for mundane stuff... shopping or looking at cats.

Thus Obama may constitute a larger proportion of searches in those places than in the US.

Re: On Google, a Political Mystery That's All Numbers

#23
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, meant to say depersonalize. Care to expand why this doesn't work? Just ran the same test, and I see the exact same results.

Yes, what you said sounds plausible and is indeed intuitive, but we've found it empirically to be untrue. In fact, on fresh private mode browsing (cookies cleared) when people searched for the same result at the same time, we still saw significant variation in results, even in the same country and on non-location results.

This may have nothing to do with personalization. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2008/09/search-evaluation-at-... "We also make use of experiments, in which small fractions of queries are shown results from alternative search approaches."

Many small experiments can lead to differences for a reasonably large fraction of queries.

Re: On Google, a Political Mystery That's All Numbers

#24

I don't know why they bother putting 'Mystery' in the headline. http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=obama,%20romney Surprise, the incumbent president is far more popular than the challenger, in terms of historic searches. There's no mystery, this is somewhere between a fluff political piece and an advertisement for Google's new search tech. Come on WSJ, you can do better. edit: A bigger mystery; does anyone know wh…

In a similar vein. Here is the trend with the addition of the candidates in the previous 2 elections:

http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=obama%2C%20romney%2C%2...

It will be interesting to see if Obama wins. If he does then winning in Google Trends will predict winning in the election.

Re: On Google, a Political Mystery That's All Numbers

#26

Alternate Headline: DuckDuckGo chief, trying to rustle up more users from Google personalization-fear-baiting, spoon feeds article to WSJ. What'd I miss?

Is there evidence of this?

Strong circumstantial evidence. See also http://paulgraham.com/submarine.html

Re: On Google, a Political Mystery That's All Numbers

#27

Alternate Headline: DuckDuckGo chief, trying to rustle up more users from Google personalization-fear-baiting, spoon feeds article to WSJ. What'd I miss?

Is there evidence of this?

Sure, read the last few paragraphs of this Journal article. The reporter is up front about her source: "Mr. Weinberg brought the discrepancy to the Journal's attention.""

""In September, Gabriel Weinberg, founder and chief executive of tiny Duck Duck Go Inc., which markets itself as a privacy-protecting search engine, stumbled across the "you recently searched for" phenomenon in a study he conducted of Google's personalization efforts. Mr. Weinberg, whose site is based in Paoli, Pa., asked 131 of its users to search Google for several keywords at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Sept. 2: "Obama," "abortion" and "gun control." His testers received a wide variety of different results that appeared to be personalized by location and other factors.

Mr. Weinberg also noticed that some testers received results labeled "you recently searched for Obama," and discovered that he couldn't replicate the same label when searching for Romney. Mr. Weinberg brought the discrepancy to the Journal's attention.""

There's no shame in running an interesting story that's brought to your attention by someone with vested interests.

For example, notorious fraudster Barry Minkow dug up a list of all the executives in publicly traded corporations who lied about their college degrees and gave that information to the WSJ after short-selling the companies, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122652836844922165.html.

Win-win -- the Journal got an important news tip, and he made some money on the bounce.

Unfortunately for Minkow, he couldn't resist going after just bad companies and ended up in prison for defrauding a home-building company, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190346110457646....

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