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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

mitsloan.mit.edu

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#21
post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

> It's absolutely insane that Claude Code can spit out a week's worth of business automation tasks in half a day. And do it at relatively high quality in low-defect rate languages like Rust.

> Europe won't be able to catch that.

You think Europe won't be able to use Claude Code? If Claude Code is the one reaping the majority of the benefits of "spit[ing] out a week's worth of business automation tasks", then it's not worth much to the business. If Claude Code isn't the one reaping the majority of those benefits, then...Europe can use Claude Code too and reap the benefits for their business as well.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#22
post #4
post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

>Europe won't be able to catch that. If we cut the chip supply right as things take off, China might not either. https://www.asml.com

I would be worried about the US militarily capturing Eindhoven if Europe dared to cut them off.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#23
post #14
post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

You really do not understand how interdependent everyone is. The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example. The US kneecapped itself for no reason.

> The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example

The US, not Europe.

ASML's EUV and High NA EUV production is all done in California via US DoE joint ventures (specifically Cymer LLC [0]). Additionally, their metrology IP is Taiwanese [1] as part of ASML's acquisition of HMI back in 2016 with Taiwanese approval [2].

ASML is the capital partner because in the early 2000s, the US government wanted to prevent a duopoly forming between Nikon and Canon for photolithography as part of an antitrust battle.

And the next generation of lithography tooling coming into Taiwan is being funded and developed by Japan [3] due to MUFG, Mitsui, Mizuho, and SoftBank becoming the primary capital partners for Taiwan's electronics industry [4]. This is also why TSMC is expanding in Japan and Taiwanese players are transferring IP to Rapidus.

Additonally, all the packaging, testing, and design work - especially leading edge nodes - is done in Asia, the US, and even Israel but not Europe.

---

Personally, I think Europe is too far behind at this point for the EUV and High NA EUV boom - Taiwan, the US, Japan, South Korea, China, and others deployed significant amounts of capital and subsidizes in the late 2010s and early 2020s and worked to build IP partnerships for front-end work with players like TSMC (US, Japan), UMC (China until 2019), PSMC (Japan, India), and Samsung (US).

The EU had a shot but Intel rolled back their Germany expansion plan in order to double down on 18A in Arizona, and TSMC decided to double down on Japan. Additonally, all the backend work is done in Taiwan, South Korea, China, ASEAN (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam), Japan, the US, and even India now because Micron, Samsung, Amkor, and others transferred their IP there, and design is primarily concentrated in Taiwan, the US, China, Israel, and India and with Malaysia and Vietnam likely to become much more prominent in the next few years due to Arm and Marvell respectively.

What the EU can instead do is concentrate on power electronics (already a strong suite) and compound semiconductors (already a strong suite) and target a leapfrog technology like 2D semiconductor design and fabrication which is still in it's infancy and also has applications for quantum computing. The EU already has the capacity for "legacy" (but still critical) semiconductors but is too late to the game for sub-14nm fabrication.

And based on the kind of fundamental research and funding I've been seeing in the EU, this is the strategy that appears to be increasingly adopted within the EU - but this is something the US, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Israel, the UK, Singapore, Canada, and even Vietnam and India are doing as well, and both French and German initiatives risk being misaligned due to mutual industrial competition. The fact that French players in the space would rather collaborate with Singaporean [5], Korean [6], American [7], Israeli [8], and Canadian [9] partners to develop IP instead of with other partners within Europe, it shows issues around misalignment.

On a separate note, as I mentioned before on HN, the French seem to be on the right track - other European states other than the UK less so. French players are much more ruthless and "American" in attitude.

[0] - https://www.cymer.com/

[1] - https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml/hmi

[2] - https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2016/asml-obtain...

[3] - https://www.nikkei.com/nkd/company/us/SNPS/news/?DisplayType...

[4] - https://asia.nikkei.com/business/tech/semiconductors/japan-l...

[5] - https://www.pasqal.com/newsroom/three-new-partnerships-signe...

[6] - https://www.pasqal.com/newsroom/pasqal-expands-into-korea/

[7] - https://gov-pritzker-newsroom.prezly.com/governor-pritzker-a...

[8] - https://www.quantum-machines.co/blog/pushing-the-boundaries-...

[9] - https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/09/25/quebec-...

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#24

Its been unreliable my entire life. Every year the economy gets better but life gets worse. You can't even recognize the country any more.

The economy can get better while life gets worse for most people. After all, an economy where 95% of the work was done by enslaved people might produce amazing profits and a very high GDP....

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#25
The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up.

Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting.

The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' Without this immoral looting, our government could do a better job of protecting US citizens as our empire collapses.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#26

The reported economic data has been squirrelly for many years. For instance, the employment report (establishment survey) has an error rate or +/- 122,000 with 90% confidence--completely swamping the actual value. It be like I said I was 2m tall on my dating profile and one date is frightened off by my being -0.2m tall and another by me being 4m tall. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm#

That dating analogy would work better if America wasn’t messing up every relationship with lunatic behaviour.

Everyone swiped left long ago.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#27
post #14
post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

You really do not understand how interdependent everyone is. The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example. The US kneecapped itself for no reason.

[deleted]

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#28
post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

> It's absolutely insane that Claude Code can spit out a week's worth of business automation tasks in half a day. And do it at relatively high quality in low-defect rate languages like Rust. > Europe won't be able to catch that. You think Europe won't be able to use Claude Code? If Claude Code is the one reaping the majority of the benefits of "spit[ing] out a week's worth of business automation tasks", then it's not…

Well, if it becomes strategically advantageous to bar Europeans from doing so, why would we (Europeans) be permitted continued access?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#29
post #4
post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

>Europe won't be able to catch that. If we cut the chip supply right as things take off, China might not either. https://www.asml.com

ASML is under US export control though. Probably because there is US tech in there.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#30

The reported economic data has been squirrelly for many years. For instance, the employment report (establishment survey) has an error rate or +/- 122,000 with 90% confidence--completely swamping the actual value. It be like I said I was 2m tall on my dating profile and one date is frightened off by my being -0.2m tall and another by me being 4m tall. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm#

That’s 122,000 out of a labor force size of 170 million!!

Yes, month to month you have large absolute error bars vs. the monthly delta, but being an imperfect monthly barometer of labor force momentum is only the headline use of the establishment report.

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