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War prediction markets are a national-security threat

theatlantic.com

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Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#21

Post by _bypa »

quakeguy wrote: post #14
behole wrote: post #11

Just another grift for orange man and his posse. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/anonymous-polymarket...

I always wonder about when there is a cutoff about the grift, i mean there has to be a point when enough is enough. Who cares if its 4 or 5 billions in the end, thats more money one could reasonably spend in a lifetime. What drives this greed?

Power. People who want power need status, and money is the ultimate symbol. They can never have enough power because of their dark triad personalities.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#22

Post by ivell »

quakeguy wrote: post #14
behole wrote: post #11

Just another grift for orange man and his posse. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/anonymous-polymarket...

I always wonder about when there is a cutoff about the grift, i mean there has to be a point when enough is enough. Who cares if its 4 or 5 billions in the end, thats more money one could reasonably spend in a lifetime. What drives this greed?

If I understand Trump, he wants to be the richest man in the world. It is another matter if can achieve that. But his ego would definitely want that.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#23

Post by pstuart »

Footnote7341 wrote: post #5

Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.

Except this wasn't driven by Oil. It was driven by Israel.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#26

Post by wutwutwat »

givemeethekeys wrote: post #16
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #13

Betting was once a vice overseen by the mob -- and those addicted to it were rightly viewed as pathetic figures, akin to serious alcoholics. Now betting pervades nearly every aspect of Anglosphere life. This transformation, which has taken place over the past 100 years but has really picked up steam over the last 15, has not been an improvement. It's net negative for society, and the evidence on this is very clear. P…

Yet another side effect of being automated out of a purposeful life.

The purpose of life is work?

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#27

Post by gruez »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #19

> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March. I know this is more for the drama than an actual claim, but it made me w…

>> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week,

Or you know, be in a bunker dug into the mountains somewhere, rather than being in your official residence? He was a 86 year old man faced with the prospect of living the rest of his life in a bunker, so there's a good chance he wanted to die a martyr.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#28

Post by gruez »

amelius wrote: post #9
Footnote7341 wrote: post #5

Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.

Yeah we should ban derivatives too.

/s?

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#30

Post by brandall10 »

andai wrote: post #24

> The day before, 150 users bet at least $1,000 that the United States would strike Iran within the next 24 hours Yeah, I heard the same thing at the same time from several friends. And I'm not talking top brass, so it must have been pretty obvious at that point.

There were definite geopolitical signals of an impending conflict - ie. warships moving into the region, Iran increasing oil exports just days before the attack.

I guess what might be more interesting is how many people bet $1000 the day before that, and the day before that. That would be more helpful to determine what is noise from well-informed outsiders vs. insiders.

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