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Strikes in Middle East since 28th Feb in real time

iranstrike.com

21–30 of 68 posts

Re: Strikes in Middle East since 28th Feb in real time

#22

Why the hell is Iran bombing other middle eastern states, like UAE? I'm quite naive about these conflicts but it seems like whoever is in charge of the Iran military really has a death wish. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran is a parking lot by the end of the year at this rate.

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Re: Strikes in Middle East since 28th Feb in real time

#23
"What fools we are to live in a generation for which war is a computer game for our children and just an interesting little Channel 4 news item"

- Tony Benn, MP, in the UK parliament, speaking against a resolution authorizing bombing of Iraq in 1998

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfXmpJRZPYI

Re: Strikes in Middle East since 28th Feb in real time

#24

The interception disparity really drives home how air superiority dominates modern war planning. (That and not getting scammed on Russian kit.)

I doubt that the Russian kit is a scam. I'm sure it is reasonably good. It just can't compete with the US's combination of technology, quantity, and operational excellence. I don't mean that in a rah-rah way, it just seems to be the reality.

> It just can't compete with the US's combination of technology, quantity, and operational excellence

Or Israeli. In India, it couldn’t compete with Chinese kit.

If Russia sold its air-defence systems as only protecting against Hezbollah-caliber munitions, you’d be correct. They didn’t. They pitched it as a bulwark against a superpower. (Saddam learned the same lesson in 2003.)

Re: Strikes in Middle East since 28th Feb in real time

#25

Seems like the sword and shield icons are backwards in terms of who started the war. And “bloc” vs “coalition” lol. Wonder how much of this came out of the prompter’s mind versus the LLM itself.

Nobody would put this much effort into it as a hobby unless they were happy about it, so that necessitates a certain point of view.

Re: Strikes in Middle East since 28th Feb in real time

#26

Why the hell is Iran bombing other middle eastern states, like UAE? I'm quite naive about these conflicts but it seems like whoever is in charge of the Iran military really has a death wish. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran is a parking lot by the end of the year at this rate.

> Why the hell is Iran bombing other middle eastern states, like UAE?

The theory was probably that the Gulf states are only begrudgingly going along with Washington in this war, and that the moment they start seeing costs they’ll personally call Trump to stop it. What Iran miscalculated on are the Gulf’s (a) long-time frustrations with Tehran, (b) massive bets on economies that suffer from capitulation and (c) monarchies being a stubborn lot.

Alternate hypothesis: Iran’s hardliners think escalating the war lets them consolidate more of a smaller pie. (If you’re looking for the truly WTF moves, it’s targeting Cyprus and Azerbaijan, the latter who has Iran’s sizable Azeri minority right on its border.)

Re: Strikes in Middle East since 28th Feb in real time

#27

Why the hell is Iran bombing other middle eastern states, like UAE? I'm quite naive about these conflicts but it seems like whoever is in charge of the Iran military really has a death wish. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran is a parking lot by the end of the year at this rate.

It’s the Poor Man’s MAD (mutually assured destruction). They want this conflict to be as painful as possible so that pressure is applied to the aggressors to stop. The US can’t defend all of the possible targets, it causes a lot of economic damage and increases uncertainty for everyone in the region.

This is one of the reasons that most administrations declined to start a war with Iran in the past, the risk that they would do something like this, that taking out the leaders wouldn’t end the threat but would just make it more wild and unpredictable.

Re: Strikes in Middle East since 28th Feb in real time

#29

Why the hell is Iran bombing other middle eastern states, like UAE? I'm quite naive about these conflicts but it seems like whoever is in charge of the Iran military really has a death wish. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran is a parking lot by the end of the year at this rate.

They are mostly bombing US bases in those states + some connected locations (hotels where US operatives were being stationed), and energy production infrastructure.

Basically the Iranian war plan seems pretty simple and clear: try to destroy US and Israeli military infrastructure in the region, and destroy energy infrastructure to raise the cost of oil. The first part is a completely legitimate military target, especially in a war of defense as Iran is waging. The second part is not legitimate, but the thinking behind it is very simple and clear.

Re: Strikes in Middle East since 28th Feb in real time

#30

Why the hell is Iran bombing other middle eastern states, like UAE? I'm quite naive about these conflicts but it seems like whoever is in charge of the Iran military really has a death wish. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran is a parking lot by the end of the year at this rate.

They said they would retaliate against US assets in the region if they were attacked, and then the US attacked, so now they kind of have to. In 1973 OAPEC announced that they were going to stop selling oil to countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur war, which rather quickly caused the US to rein in the israelis. Perhaps Iran is making a similar bet now.

Iran is a very large country, to make it into "a parking lot" would take many years, during which time we'd have a global recession and core US partners in the region would collapse.

Unlike what some would have you believe, the iranian leaders are generally quite thoughtful and educated. It's not an Idi Amin regime, or the occident would be supporting it.

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