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Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario

chrisclapham.com

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Re: Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario

#21

Post by Simulacra »

Reading this I was reminded of this story:

"At the Abyss: An Insider's History of the Cold War" recounted that the United States added a Trojan horse to gas pipeline control software that the Soviet Union obtained from a company in Canada. According to the author, when the components were deployed on a Trans-Siberian gas pipeline, the Trojan horse led to a huge explosion. He wrote: "The pipeline software that was to run the pumps, turbines and valves was programmed to go haywire, to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to the pipeline joints and welds. The result was the most monumental non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_the_Abyss

Re: Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario

#25

Post by pkaral »

twoodfin wrote: post #8

Since the beginning of the nuclear age, literally billions of dollars have been spent paying incredibly smart people to model all aspects of nuclear war, including the chain of escalation under uncertainty. Not to discount the importance of this risk, but we’re not likely to sleepwalk into it, barring a collapse in strategic & operational competence in planning (yeah, yeah) that would make MANY risks dangerously seve…

There are so many implicit premises in that short comment, such as:

- Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems involving both deterministic behavior and human psychology - The people with the nuclear codes will be given their orders by (or themselves be) incredibly smart people - Wargames work (they have a horrible track record) - The best plans are based on a complete understanding of the starting conditions and the factors that influence the modelling (including the "unknown unknowns")

I could go on.

Re: Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario

#26

Post by twoodfin »

pkaral wrote: post #25
twoodfin wrote: post #8

Since the beginning of the nuclear age, literally billions of dollars have been spent paying incredibly smart people to model all aspects of nuclear war, including the chain of escalation under uncertainty. Not to discount the importance of this risk, but we’re not likely to sleepwalk into it, barring a collapse in strategic & operational competence in planning (yeah, yeah) that would make MANY risks dangerously seve…

There are so many implicit premises in that short comment, such as: - Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems involving both deterministic behavior and human psychology - The people with the nuclear codes will be given their orders by (or themselves be) incredibly smart people - Wargames work (they have a horrible track record) - The best plans are based on a complete under…

I’m not sure what you’re objecting to about my comment, except a bunch of “implicit premises” you read into it.

Re: Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario

#29

Post by sigwinch »

pkaral wrote: post #25
twoodfin wrote: post #8

Since the beginning of the nuclear age, literally billions of dollars have been spent paying incredibly smart people to model all aspects of nuclear war, including the chain of escalation under uncertainty. Not to discount the importance of this risk, but we’re not likely to sleepwalk into it, barring a collapse in strategic & operational competence in planning (yeah, yeah) that would make MANY risks dangerously seve…

There are so many implicit premises in that short comment, such as: - Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems involving both deterministic behavior and human psychology - The people with the nuclear codes will be given their orders by (or themselves be) incredibly smart people - Wargames work (they have a horrible track record) - The best plans are based on a complete under…

My experience is that wargaming has a decent track record. In hindsight, Nimitz looks much more prepared than MacArthur, even if their early careers suggest the opposite.

Re: Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario

#30

Post by sigwinch »

627467 wrote: post #28

Damn, so House of Dynamite won't ever happen?

You could make it a little more convincing:

1. An uncertain Pacific launch seemed like a weak point. Instead, an arctic launch. Because volcanology studies things like CO2, maybe we fired the climate scientists who could tell whether a thermal bloom in the arctic could be volcanic instead of missile.

2. Make the President more contemporary. Have his phone full of spyware. Have him continually screen calls from his kids, influencers, and other seekers of patronage. Have him dodge the hovering sycophants and pardon-seeking lawyers. Demonstrate what he’s actually doing instead of preparing for the hardest part of the job.

3. Acknowledge that we have limited interceptors and that perfectly deploying them means that the first and last missiles get through.

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