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Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

theguardian.com

21–30 of 86 posts

Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can't trust Trump. No one can.

Trump wants the things I listed -- he has expressed them time and again for anyone remotely willing to listen. If one is trying to negotiate while maintaining a theocracy, then Trump won't listen, but ending the theocracy is one of the listed points, so it's logically consistent.

You're not making sense. There's no reason to strike a deal with the US as the US can't be trusted to uphold their deals as they have demonstrated directly to Iran previously and to their own "allies".

Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump wants the things I listed -- he has expressed them time and again for anyone remotely willing to listen. If one is trying to negotiate while maintaining a theocracy, then Trump won't listen, but ending the theocracy is one of the listed points, so it's logically consistent.

You're not making sense. There's no reason to strike a deal with the US as the US can't be trusted to uphold their deals as they have demonstrated directly to Iran previously and to their own "allies".

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Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#23
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was thinking about this the other day when watching a video about Chernobyl. They flew countless helicopters over the exposed reactor core and because this was 1986, helicopters didn't have a million sensors or electronics in it. It was entirely mechanical. Effectively all in-use aircraft nowadays could not complete such a mission as the electronics would be rendered null almost instantaneously, even with ECC, etc.…

I had to vouch your comment as it and most comments from your account are auto [dead]. The lasers can fry sensors like I mentioned. They can also burn holes in the body of the aircraft and damage engines. I think you may be conflating the modern glass displays with the sensors themselves. In many cases the actual sensors have not changed that much in terms of being vulnerable to directed energy weapons. The energy be…

Then again.. maybe dang was on to something…

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47159666

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47069736

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47067723

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47054551

Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can't trust Trump. No one can.

Trump wants the things I listed -- he has expressed them time and again for anyone remotely willing to listen. If one is trying to negotiate while maintaining a theocracy, then Trump won't listen, but ending the theocracy is one of the listed points, so it's logically consistent.

LOL theocracy: https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-ir...

Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What corner is there left to be backed into when the the US is trying to assassinate you?

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Oppressive theocracy say what? https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-ir...

Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#26
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to vouch your comment as it and most comments from your account are auto [dead]. The lasers can fry sensors like I mentioned. They can also burn holes in the body of the aircraft and damage engines. I think you may be conflating the modern glass displays with the sensors themselves. In many cases the actual sensors have not changed that much in terms of being vulnerable to directed energy weapons. The energy be…

Then again.. maybe dang was on to something… https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47159666 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47069736 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47067723 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47054551

Oh good catch. I did not go back far enough. They should create a new account if they are chill now.

Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What corner is there left to be backed into when the the US is trying to assassinate you?

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Idk why you’re getting downvoted, the U.S. is looking for a quick win if it can have it. One of the destructive streaks in the Iranian regime (and among its proxies) is their glorification of martyrdom over pragmatism. It’s cost them historically and it’s costing them now.

Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

They can't trust Trump. No one can.

> They can't trust Trump

I mean, the Germans and Japanese and Iraqis probably couldn’t have trusted the U.S. either. They still surrendered because it was better than fighting a futile war.

Same here. Iran’s security chief (and, I’m assuming, de facto leader) messaging he’s ready to concede on those points certainly doesn’t put him in a worse position than he is now.

Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#29

I've heard analysis that a significant proportion of middle east water and food supply - in the form of desalination plants, and cargo through the Strait of Hormuz - is within reach of Iran's capabilities. The logic is that you use this to collapse middle eastern economies which blocks the flow of the investment from Arab states into AI infra that is propping up the US economy.

> is within reach of Iran's capabilities

Analysts have been playing fast and loose with this phrase. Within reach assuming no air defenses and able to be struck are separate. I believe Iran could hit this infrastructure if it were undefended. It’s not practically able to due to air defenses. (Iran already targeted the small Gulf states’ airports. Given how much food they import by air, that’s an attempted blockade strike.)

Re: Iran unleashes Shahed drones aimed at targets across Middle East

#30

I've heard analysis that a significant proportion of middle east water and food supply - in the form of desalination plants, and cargo through the Strait of Hormuz - is within reach of Iran's capabilities. The logic is that you use this to collapse middle eastern economies which blocks the flow of the investment from Arab states into AI infra that is propping up the US economy.

> is within reach of Iran's capabilities Analysts have been playing fast and loose with this phrase. Within reach assuming no air defenses and able to be struck are separate. I believe Iran could hit this infrastructure if it were undefended. It’s not practically able to due to air defenses. (Iran already targeted the small Gulf states’ airports. Given how much food they import by air, that’s an attempted blockade st…

Those nations do not have the ability to defend civilian infrastructure - it's the weak point we see in Ukraine.

Nobody does.

These are large regions, AA coverage is narrow, using F16s to shoot down Shaheds wears down fast.

If Iran has stockpiles, and the wherewithal for mission planning, they can steer them around AA and hit the 'back office' at will.

Those states also have no practice coordinating the in-between methods - they have only very expensive ways to stop Shaheds, and only jet fighters outside of AA coverage.

Now - hitting a lot of things like civic buildings etc. doesn't have much effect, but it depends how the civilians react and cope.

Some very specific things like energy desalinization are acute problems.

These are authoritarian states that can keep information dispersal minimal and the civilians will just have to 'eat it' - but only for so long.

The biggest damage will be to Straight of Hormuz - of those drones can be used to hit Oil Tankers ... if there are enough muntions, it will be bad

All of that said, China and India would be super duper upset about that, and Iran may depend on China for parts. They would have 'no friends' at that point.

So it's all plausible.

But it requires Iran to have capabilities.

The entire Middle East is lit up right now - and that puts US forces on a 'clock' - this is going to be an interesting form of attrition on all sides, not a good situation.

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