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Khamenei Dead

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Re: Khamenei Dead

#23
post #9

So, what does that mean? Is Iran one of those regimes that fall when the leader is killed or is it one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going? If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war?

Where did democracy kicked in in the last two decades after their leaders were assassinated or captured by foreign aggressors though?

The closest is Iraq, and it's not a functioning democracy but a hybrid regime.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#24
post #9

So, what does that mean? Is Iran one of those regimes that fall when the leader is killed or is it one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going? If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war?

Excellent question - my understanding is that previous decapitation attacks were avoided due to the probability that the IRGC would take over as a simple dictatorship. Unclear what's changed now though.

Given the outcome in Venezuela (and Trumps relationships with dictators in generally), it don't seem like that is something Trump necessarily sees as a bad outcome. As long as the dictatorship trades oil and let some American companies in, they can be as dictatorial as they want.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#26
post #8

So now heads of state are fair game for unilateral elimination without a declaration of war This should be fun.

Generally when you murder 30k of your own people the civilized world doesn't let you get away with it.

It actually does, or even supports this based on the narratives it sees fit and the interests at hand.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#27
post #9

So, what does that mean? Is Iran one of those regimes that fall when the leader is killed or is it one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going? If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war?

Excellent question - my understanding is that previous decapitation attacks were avoided due to the probability that the IRGC would take over as a simple dictatorship. Unclear what's changed now though.

There is this new group this year that is into doing regime change, kind of

Re: Khamenei Dead

#28
post #8

So now heads of state are fair game for unilateral elimination without a declaration of war This should be fun.

What's the time window of "now"?

For example in 2022 Russia tried to take out the Ukrainian president with a "3 day special military operation", that is still going on.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#29
post #8

So now heads of state are fair game for unilateral elimination without a declaration of war This should be fun.

Do you think the estimated 6,221 men and women protesting against the regime who were killed on orders from that head of state should get a vote here?
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