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Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

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Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#21

Post by felixgallo »

hippo22 wrote: post #15
baueric wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All responses are so focused on exact predictions. We have high certainty that 50% of flips will be tails over long enough timespan. We don't know what any single flip will be. Climate science works the same way. But climate is not a coin, let's say it's a multisided die and it appears the sides are changing sizes as we compare data year over year.

I think you’re missing my point: we’re only able to predict large numbers of coin flips because we have an accurate model. We don’t have an accurate model for weather, so we can’t predict it well. I don’t see a reason to assume our model for climate is accurate, either.

Our models of weather are so accurate that literally trillions of dollars per year bank on them in the agriculture sector, the shipping sector, and everywhere else. Similarly, our models of climate change have been refined and refined, and now are essentially irrefutable.

Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#22

Post by baueric »

hippo22 wrote: post #15
baueric wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All responses are so focused on exact predictions. We have high certainty that 50% of flips will be tails over long enough timespan. We don't know what any single flip will be. Climate science works the same way. But climate is not a coin, let's say it's a multisided die and it appears the sides are changing sizes as we compare data year over year.

I think you’re missing my point: we’re only able to predict large numbers of coin flips because we have an accurate model. We don’t have an accurate model for weather, so we can’t predict it well. I don’t see a reason to assume our model for climate is accurate, either.

Predictive models are not the same as historic data analysis and trend fitting.

Flipping coins: no predictive models, very definitive statistics Weather: +/- 2 week predictive models, 100 years of measurements getting more definitive each year where trend are headed

Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#23

Post by trimethylpurine »

baueric wrote: post #13
trimethylpurine wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not exactly true, it seems. Forecasts become less accurate the further out you go, unlike coin flips. Weather forecasts are generally accurate about 90% of the time for a five-day forecast and around 80% for a seven-day forecast. Forecasts beyond ten days are only correct about half the time.

you're conflating statistics and trends with discrete predictions

Well, I'm not. The previous poster is. I'm more simply pointing out, without using terminology, that we shouldn't.

Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#24

Post by InitialLastName »

triceratops wrote: post #19
trimethylpurine wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not exactly true, it seems. Forecasts become less accurate the further out you go, unlike coin flips. Weather forecasts are generally accurate about 90% of the time for a five-day forecast and around 80% for a seven-day forecast. Forecasts beyond ten days are only correct about half the time.

Why do you pack a light jacket if you go to Tasmania for a week in June, regardless of the forecast?

Why might you wear a life jacket on a boat, even though you're 99.9% likely not to have the boat flip over?

Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#25

Post by Merrill »

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 344 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 Issued by NWS Upton, NY

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=O...

Confidence has increased enough to warrant winter storm watch issuance for the entire CWA. Latest 12Z guidance coming into better agreement on potent northern stream shortwave energy diving SW from wrn Canada and the northern Plains into the plains and mid Mississippi valley by Sunday morning, phasing with southern stream coming out of the SW states and Mexico to carve out a deep closed low aloft over the Mid Atlantic and induce rapid cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic coast, with the surface low bombing out from from 1008 mb off the N Carolina coast Sunday morning to 970-975 mb near 38-39N/71W by Monday morning, then passing just outside the 40N/70W benchmark Monday afternoon, GFS still more intense and closer to the coast than the ECMWF, with its heaviest snow bands directly over the area as opposed to just offshore. NAM and SREF have both trended toward a heavier snowfall scenario as well, which has been a good signal in past heavy snowfall events.

Snow should start Sunday morning, and may mix with rain at times especially in the NYC metro area, NE NJ and western Long Island. Then as precip intensity picks up later in the day Sunday p-type should become all snow throughout. Heaviest snow looks to fall from late day Sunday into Monday morning, then snow tapers off Monday afternoon.

Greatest likelihood of seeing 6+ inches will be along the coast, especially eastern Long Island where up to a foot of accumulation is possible. Winds will also be strong Sunday night into Monday morning especially along the coast as the sfc low deepens, with blowing and drifting snow and some downed tree limbs as winds gust to at least 40-45 mph, and possible blizzard conditions in Suffolk, and near blizzard conditions elsewhere along the coast including NYC. NAM/GFS both signal potential for wind gusts to 60 mph late Sunday night into Monday morning, though these winds can sometimes be overdone in heavy snow events. If trends for heavy snow and strong winds continue to increase and expand northward, the potential for blizzard conditions could encompass all coastal areas.

Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#26

Post by fuzzfactor »

blell wrote: post #3

They don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but they know what's going to happen in 30 years.

The more you pay attention to what already happened, the deeper your observation might be.

Apparently there was just a hurricane in winter and it struck New York.

I guess not everybody is going to have any understanding at all, you proably had to be there :\

Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#27

Post by triceratops »

InitialLastName wrote: post #24
triceratops wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you pack a light jacket if you go to Tasmania for a week in June, regardless of the forecast?

Why might you wear a life jacket on a boat, even though you're 99.9% likely not to have the boat flip over?

There's a difference between being slightly uncomfortable for a week and dying.

Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#28

Post by jkubicek »

melling wrote: post #20
scrumper wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bit of scorn coming your way in the replies but it's not necessarily intuitive if you haven't thought about it. Some analogies that might help: - If I play roulette in a casino today, I might win big, break even, lose a little or lose a lot. If I play roulette in a casino every day for a decade, I can be nearly certain I will lose a lot. - Consider an ant walking on a rough stone road built up the side of a hill. I…

We’ve been discussing it for 30 years. Having people making the same stupid comment after 3 decades needs to be handled more critically Let’s go back 40 years and listen to the warning: https://youtu.be/3NvgJ1b6JXs?si=yUKcegVwfyNGi2rC

We should show @blell some grace. Not everybody is born knowing everything. Today is the day they learned about climate change.

Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#29

Post by asacrowflies »

jkubicek wrote: post #28
melling wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’ve been discussing it for 30 years. Having people making the same stupid comment after 3 decades needs to be handled more critically Let’s go back 40 years and listen to the warning: https://youtu.be/3NvgJ1b6JXs?si=yUKcegVwfyNGi2rC

We should show @blell some grace. Not everybody is born knowing everything. Today is the day they learned about climate change.

Grace is reserved for people with humility and a willingness to learn . Not self destructive suicidal death cult fools.

Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard

#30

Post by Recurecur »

felixgallo wrote: post #21
hippo22 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re missing my point: we’re only able to predict large numbers of coin flips because we have an accurate model. We don’t have an accurate model for weather, so we can’t predict it well. I don’t see a reason to assume our model for climate is accurate, either.

Our models of weather are so accurate that literally trillions of dollars per year bank on them in the agriculture sector, the shipping sector, and everywhere else. Similarly, our models of climate change have been refined and refined, and now are essentially irrefutable.

::multiple laughing emojis::

Our “models of climate change” have regularly been falsified at this point. It is absolutely unknown how much “climate change” is attributable to humans right now.

Nor is it actually known what the net favorability of mild warming might be…including the possibility of mitigating the next Ice Age!

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