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Thanks a lot, AI: Hard drives are sold out for the year, says WD

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21–30 of 328 posts

Re: Thanks a lot, AI: Hard drives are sold out for the year, says WD

#21
post #9

does that only include SSDs, or does it include HDDs as well?

It includes all forms of storage except for USB devices, GPUs and high end CPUs. The latter you can still get but you're going to have some severe sticker shock.

Maybe shucking USB HDDs is the short-term answer.

Re: Thanks a lot, AI: Hard drives are sold out for the year, says WD

#23
I built a new server this time last year. My board does 6 channel RAM so I bought 6x32GB ECC DDR5. $160 a stick at the time. Just for grins I looked up the same product number at the same supplier I originally bought from. $1300 apiece. One of the VMs running on that server is TrueNAS, with 4 20TB WD Red Pros. God help me if I have to replace a drive.

Re: Thanks a lot, AI: Hard drives are sold out for the year, says WD

#25
post #8

There's clearly easy/irrational money distorting the markets here. Normally this wouldn't be a problem: prices would go up, supply would eventually increase and everybody would be okay. But with AI being massively subsidized by nation-states and investors, there's no price that is too high for these supplies. Eventually the music will stop when the easy money runs out and we'll see how much people are truly willing t…

AI is going to be what fiber was to the dotcom bubble. Someone spend a lot of money on a lot of infrastructure, some of which is going to be incredibly useful, but sold for much less than it cost to build. Hardware just depreciates much much faster than fiber networks.

Re: Thanks a lot, AI: Hard drives are sold out for the year, says WD

#26
post #8

There's clearly easy/irrational money distorting the markets here. Normally this wouldn't be a problem: prices would go up, supply would eventually increase and everybody would be okay. But with AI being massively subsidized by nation-states and investors, there's no price that is too high for these supplies. Eventually the music will stop when the easy money runs out and we'll see how much people are truly willing t…

[deleted]

Re: Thanks a lot, AI: Hard drives are sold out for the year, says WD

#27
post #8

There's clearly easy/irrational money distorting the markets here. Normally this wouldn't be a problem: prices would go up, supply would eventually increase and everybody would be okay. But with AI being massively subsidized by nation-states and investors, there's no price that is too high for these supplies. Eventually the music will stop when the easy money runs out and we'll see how much people are truly willing t…

Regardless where demand comes from, it takes time to spin up a hard drive factory, and prices would have to rise enough that, as a producer, you would feel confident that a new hard drive factory will actually pay off. Conversely, if you feel that boom is irrational and temporary, as a producer you’d be quite wary of investing money in a new factory if there was a risk it would be producing into a glut in a few years…

If I remember during a previous GPU shortage (crypto?), Nvidia (and/or TSMC?) basically knew the music would stop and didn't want to be caught with its pants down after making the significant investments necessary to increase production

Not to mention that without enough competition, you can just raise prices, which, uh (gestures at Nvidia GPU price trends...)

Re: Thanks a lot, AI: Hard drives are sold out for the year, says WD

#28
post #7

Do they really think they will get some money from the AI ponzi scheme ? Well, at least they might still have a product to sell once the AI bubble pops, unlike with NVIDIA which does seem to kinda forgot to design new consumer GPUs after getting high on AI money.

They haven't forgotten, they've expressly decided to soft-pivot away from consumer GPUs. RTX 60x0 series is apparently coming in 2018… (oops, 2028. No time travel involved. Probably). If the bubble has burst by then.

Re: Thanks a lot, AI: Hard drives are sold out for the year, says WD

#30
post #2

Good luck to everyone. Home you made some reserve. Yes, AI is nice, but I also like to be able to buy some RAM and drives…

The future is thin clients for everyone, requiring a minimal amount of RAM and storage because all they are is a glorified ChatGPT interface.
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